Sports betting is a constant risk. Are you betting but can't make money? The fact is that you are taking too much risk, and unjustifiably so. That is why it will not be superfluous to get acquainted with strategies with a minimum risk of capital loss. By the way, some of them, with the right approach, are guaranteed to bring profit and allow you to get a plus, even if you are now in the red.
Bookmaker odds for the same outcomes differ. If you reveal at least a minimal difference, you can get a win with a 100% guarantee. Regardless of the outcome of the event, you will be in the black.
To understand the essence of the method, consider a simple example. For the victory of player 1, the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 1.5, and for the victory of player 2, the bookmaker's office "Betcity" set a coefficient of 5.0. Allocates 1000 rubles for the match. We bet 750 rubles for the first athlete and 250 for the second.
If player 1 wins, the payout is 1125 rubles, and if player 2, the payoff will be 1250 rubles. Net profit - 125 or 250 rubles. And it doesn't matter how the fight ends - the main thing is that it ends.
Opportunities for such bets appear due to the fact that all bookmakers are not able to set the same quotes, especially at the same time. On this you need to earn. The main thing is to place bets in different offices.
Underdog win in quarter
The strategy is for basketball. It is based on statistics. The fact is that 98% of basketball matches do not end with the victory of the favorite in all quarters. Statistics are based on observations, because no one has conducted a detailed study, but this is not a reason to refuse possible earnings.
We find in Live a match that has just begun. We bet on the victory of an outsider in the first quarter. If the bet is successful, we find another game. In case of defeat, he makes a similar bet in the second quarter, but we increase the amount of the initial bet. And so, until we win.
For example, if you bet 100 rubles and lost them, then bet not 200, but a little more. So that when you enter the bet, we not only return the lost hundred, but also remain in the black.
There are very few basketball matches in which the favorite wins all periods - you can check this yourself by opening the results of the game day of almost any tournament. To increase the chances of success, weed out events where the odds difference is too large.
The strategy is easily modified. For example, betting not on an outsider, but on a favorite. You can bet on total or even/odd. Again, matches where there would be a total over or only even in all quarters, the minimum number. Use it!)
Dogon
The bottom line is that you bet on a specific outcome. If the forecast turned out to be wrong, bet, doubling or even tripling the amount (depending on the coefficient).
The main thing is to choose the right fights and outcomes with high chances of success. Don't bet on anything. Consider each option, because you are risking your own money. Unfortunately, in the case of a long black line, which even professionals are not immune from, there is a risk of losing the entire game bank, so stock up on an amount that is enough for 10-12 transactions. You can find out more about what catch-up is.
Forks
The essence of the strategy is to find the most profitable odds for each outcome of one event. By correctly distributing the allotted amount for the bet, regardless of the outcome of the game, you will remain in the black.
The difficulty lies in finding surebets, although there are special programs for this. You can.
Profit from one arbitrage situation is 1-3%, sometimes more, but it is unlikely that you will be able to regularly find surebets with higher returns. This win-win strategy is useful if you have a large bank. Then 1-3% seems to be small, but if it is 1-3% of a bank of 100 thousand rubles, then it’s not bad at all.
An example of a fork strategy in a football match. Playing Barcelona and Real Madrid. In BC "Leon" odds. on P1 is 2.3, in the "League of Stavok" for a draw - 3.3, and the odds. on P2 in "1xBet" is equal to 3.97.
For bets, for example, we allocate 1000 rubles. On P1 we put 439.31 odds. 2.3, for a draw - 306.18 per kf. 3.3 and 254.51 on P2 with odds. 3.97. The results will be as follows:
- with the victory of Barcelona (W1): 439.31 x 2.3 = 1010.41 rubles;
- if draw (X): 306.18 x 3.3 = 1010.39 rubles;
- in case of Real Madrid win (L2): 254.51 x 3.97 = 1010.40 rubles.
No matter how El Clasico ends, our profit will be a little more than 10 rubles. A penny, but if with an increase in rates, income also grows.
Everything is so simple only in theory. There are many nuances, pitfalls and features in the strategy, so be sure to check out the most detailed material about surebets at this link.
First goal by foot
Football strategy is to bet that the first goal will be scored with the foot. In 75% of matches, the first goal is scored with the foot, and not with the head, chest or other part of the body.
Tennis is a very common discipline in the field of sports prediction and betting. Major tournaments in this sport are held with enviable regularity. Matches of less prestigious competitions fill the lines of bookmakers all year round. The abundant availability of tennis match predictions, combined with open statistics, allows forecasters to use a range of gaming strategies.
Double bet on a match
The fact that tennis is presented in the form of singles allows us to make the most qualitative analysis of the statistics of the players, as well as their game form. In addition, when making a forecast, it is necessary to take into account the factors of court coverage and tournament motivation of the participants in the match. The data obtained after analysis, in combination, can provide the player with the opportunity to make a double bet on one match, which, with the right approach and selection of odds, can turn out to be a win-win.
For an example of this strategy, we can consider a match between representatives of the men's round. Tennis players who have a powerful first serve and rely on this component in their game often become participants in matches for which bookmakers give an overestimated total. When such players meet face-to-face, the quotes for the main outcome of the match are approximately equal, and the predicted number of games in the match reaches 24 or 24.5 (for a three-set match format).
Let's take the match between Sam Querrey and John Isner as an example. Both Americans have a cannon serve and don't play very well at the reception. In a face-to-face confrontation between these tennis players on fast surfaces, you should expect a large number of games and the presence of tie-breaks. Before the start of the match, bookmakers offer total games (24.5) more for a quote of 1.80. Predicting the outcome of this event with a conditional bet of $100, let's move on to the analysis of the latest results of tennis players and the history of personal confrontations. Also, do not forget about the study of tournament motivation for each tennis player.
Let us assume that the analytical work carried out gave us reason to assign the role of the favorite in the match to Isner. If there are equal odds on the outcome before the start of the match, the quote for the outcome to win John's match in two sets will be approximately 2.65. We place a bet of $60 on this outcome.
- Total games in a match (24.5) more - 1.8 x 100 = $180 (possible win)
- Isner to win 2-0 sets - 2.65 x 60 = $159 (potential win)
With the option that Isner outplayed Querrey in two sets (7:6, 7:5), both bets will play and the net profit will be $139. In the event that only one of the forecasts plays out, the payout will at least cover the bet amounts or give the bank an increase of $20.
An example of this strategy can be varied in different directions, taking into account the characteristics of court surfaces and the capabilities of the tennis players encountered.
Double outcome bets are very favorable for the bettor. In theory, each of the three outcomes of a football match can end in a victory for one of the teams or a draw, and each of them corresponds to a 33.3% probability. What kind of bettor will refuse a bet in which his chances are increased to 66.6%? Therefore, this strategy of the game is quite popular among bettors.
About Probability
In fact, often we are not talking about any 66.6%. If Chelsea take on Huddersfield, they will win 9 out of 10 times. So a bet like X2 will almost certainly lose here. This will reflect the coefficient per event - it will be at least five. Bet on 1X for Chelsea not interested in terms of profit. The more the chances of rival teams are equalized, the lower the odds for a double outcome become. For equal teams, all three outcomes 1X, 12 and X2 are evaluated by BC odds like 1.3 - 1.5.
Is it a double chance?
Let's say you're interested in a meeting Atlético - Villarreal. The bookmaker gives odds of 1.9 for a home win, and 4.0 for a draw. The defeat of the Madrid team does not interest us here, so we will not take it into account. For good measure, let's take a bet of the notorious one hundred dollars. You decide to split the odds. This can be done using simple formulas, which are given below:
Win bet = draw odds x total stake / (draw odds + win odds)
We count using the formula:
Win bet = 4.0 x 100 / (4.0+1.9) = $67.8
The value is rounded. We have the size of the bet on the victory of Atlético.
Now we simply subtract the size of the bet on the victory of Madrid from the total bankroll:
100 - 67.8 = $32.2
So much money we will bet on a draw.
Imagine that Atlético wins, as befits the favorite. In this case, you need to multiply the amount of the bet on the victory of this team by the coefficient, which ultimately gives the following result:
1.9 x 67.8 = $128.82, i.e. $28.82 profit
If there is a tie, then we multiply 4.0 by $32.2 and get 128.8 and a profit of $28.8, which is almost identical to the first indicator.
Why is it all? And to the fact that, according to the classics, the odds for a double outcome of 1X will be such that the player’s profit is lower than when he bets on each individual outcome. For example, it will be a factor of 1.21. That is, the amount of winnings on a bet with a double outcome 1X on Atlético will be 1.21x100 = 121, that is, 21 dollars of profit, which is less than in the case of a bet on each individual selection. Of course, the coefficient may be different, but it will still be below the standard ordinary.
Why? Because the bookmaker risks more if the bet is double, because the chances of the bettor increase dramatically. The bookmaker is insured, but the bettor?
Or is it insurance?
In other words, double betting offers you a dilemma. Either you are less likely to play with one outcome, or with more chances - with two. But the profit in the second case will be at least not more, but in general - and less.
For a player for whom not losing money is the number one task, and winning is how it will turn out, bets on a double outcome - the most natural insurance. Especially if the recognized hegemon of the national championship acts as a home team. In this case, the probability that a bet on a double outcome 1X will play is close to one hundred percent. The bettor is reinsured, the same is done by the bookmaker, reducing the odds to almost one. If the odds for the favorite to win are in the range of 1.1 -1.2, then the 1X bet can be evaluated by a ridiculous odds like 1.02. Will this be of interest to a bettor? Rhetorical question.
Bet on a double outcome on an outsider
Now that we have figured out the purpose of the double chance strategy, let's look at how it is best applied to someone who still wants to try this tempting tactic. Betting like 1X is not very profitable in terms of profit, but betting that the outsider will not lose looks like much more attractive. Of course, we are not talking about a meeting of teams from different poles, for example, Real Madrid and Las Palmas.
An outsider can mean London's Arsenal when he arrives at Old Trafford for a meeting with Manchester United. For example, in the 2017/18 season, the victory of the Gunners over the Mancunians at the latter's home stadium is estimated by bookmakers at a coefficient of 7.0-8.0, a draw is about 5.0. But the outcome of X2, that is, the fact that the Londoners do not lose - with odds of 3.0.
Arsenal have always played poorly away from the Red Devils, but recently the situation has changed for the better for the Gunners. In the last four meetings at home, the Mancunians won only one match, lost one and drew two. Arsenal's chances don't look so bad anymore, a coefficient of 3.0 should only add confidence. Here the X2 bet looks somewhat more attractive than the singles for a draw or a victory for the gunners.
There will be no draw
This is probably the most difficult of the three possibilities to predict. Although in terms of probability, this is the same as with the other two outcomes, a draw quite often resolves a hard-fought match between two teams charged with a fight. But the bookmaker sets a high odd on a bet of 12 just when the strengths of the teams are approximately equal and the probability of a draw is higher.
In other words, you can play according to any strategy, but before applying it, it is very important to calculate everything from a mathematical point of view. Unfortunately, for a successful game and to make a profit, you will have to parse the formulas and deal with a large number of numbers. You may not have, but then take bets solely for the sake of pleasure.
3.6666666666667
1) How to make a profit at a distance? The importance of the concept of value.
Betting is an investment. Someone trades on the stock exchange, someone makes a deposit in a bank, and someone has a stable income from sports betting. However, it should be treated as an investment. The only way to beat the bookmaker in the long run (to get a systematic profit, and not to double the pot once and then drain everything) in betting is to find events underestimated by the bookmaker.
The whole point of betting is to assess the likelihood of events. It is necessary to find matches in which your probability estimate exceeds the bookmaker's estimate. This is VALUE. The bookmaker's score is included in the odds.
Example: for example, the odds for the outcome of Zenit-Spartak over 2.5 at the bookmaker is 2.0 (i.e. the probability of breaking the total = 1 / 2.0 = 50% - excluding the bookmaker's margin). You think that the probability is at least 60%. Those. fair odds should be 1/0.6 = 1.67. value is obvious. If we take a distance of 1000 similar matches, we will get 400 losses and 600 wins at odds of 2.0. Those. 1200 - 1000 \u003d 200. Or 20% of net profit.
2 ) Why is 60% cross-country ability already cool? Isn't that enough?..
Are you promised a monthly (or even daily) doubling of the bank? Send them to the forest. Look a little further than your nose. Yes, you can be given 3-4 entries in a row. But will they be able to operate flawlessly all the time? Will they make at least a few months in plus? Nobody sees the future, and nobody predicts 100% or even 80% of events. You can guess 8 out of 10, you can give a series of 15 positive outcomes (and I have), but it is almost impossible to guess 800 out of 1000 and win all the time. Naturally, we are talking about normal odds (1.8 and more), and not about 1.01.
60% throughput with an average coefficient of 1.9 gives 14% net profit. 14% monthly cumulative total is 482% per year. Not bad, right? However, we still need to reach these 60% and 1.9. You need to look at a distance of at least 100 forecasts (and reliably from 500 or more).
3) Here: are there fixed matches?
Yes, match-fixing exists. But no one will sell them to you. This information costs a lot of money and is intended for a narrow circle of people. All the people who sell “agreements” for 100 rubles look ridiculous. If you know the outcome of the match 100%, charge a million and go to Bali. Funny picture on the topic: 
4) Error "butt". What is a sagging ratio?
Never bet on odds 1.2 - 1.3. They are absolutely not beneficial. To recapture one bet, you need to bet 4. At the same time, the probability that they will come all at once is much less than laid down. A sagging odd is obtained due to a skewed line. Many people bet on the same event, as a result, the bookmaker corrects the line in the direction of the market. Let's say that initially the odds for over 2.5 in the Manchester United-Liverpool match were 1.8. But people bet a lot on TB, as a result, the odds sink to 1.55. This odd is no longer profitable (remember value?). However, many still continue to bet - this strategy is erroneous. Either manage to bet at a normal odds, or wait for the line to straighten out in live, or refrain from betting altogether. A systematic bet on a sagging odds leads to bankruptcy.
5) Why is it profitable to bet on unpopular leagues? Why do the majority drain their money at the World Cup, Champions League, LE, Premier League?
Everything is simple. In unpopular leagues, it is much more common to find "value" (i.e. with value) odds. Firstly, bookmakers often set an incorrect line for matches of the lower leagues. There are slightly less limits, but you can throw 5-10 thousand for sure. Often these values exceed 30 thousand, depending on the league. Secondly, there is no mass thoughtless progruz of events.
As for the top champions, the best bookmaker analysts work on the matches, so it is much more difficult to find a value odd. In addition, there is a whole cohort of people who bet on favorites. They know the Real Madrid brand - they cut Real for 1.2, regardless of the situation, they load minus handicaps. By the way, therefore, at a distance it is more profitable to bet on underdogs and plus handicaps. However, you need to correctly find such matches. This trend is clearly visible in the rendered matches.
6) Why do 90% of people give money to a bookmaker?
Because they don't know what bank-roll management is. This concept comes from poker, where it came in turn from financial management. It is better to have 10% stable - this gives more than 200% per annum net. Than 150% in a month, and then drain everything in the next two. That is why it is worth limiting the amount of a single bet. How much% of the bank to take is up to you to decide - depending on how exposed you are to excitement. If after 5 losses in a row you start to panic and win back, you should bet 1-2% of the pot. If you adequately react to losses - 5%. The maximum bar is 10%, however, this amount should be set only if you are extremely confident and there are good reasons to do so (it happens 1-2 times a month, and then not every time).
Accordingly, you can forget about what VA-BANK is. I know many stories of how people then get into loans and ruin their lives.
7) Did I lose?
Yes. There is no person who has not had a single unsuccessful period. If he claims otherwise, believe me, he is a charlatan. Everyone has so-called lose-streaks - a series of defeats. I won't tell you the longest losing streak, but there have been 30% monthly drawdowns in my 7+ year history. However, it also happened that more than 100% of the profit came out per month.
8) How much to bet according to my predictions?
If you carefully read the last paragraph, I think you understand. Maximum 5% of the bank. The decision on the rate is made by you, and you take responsibility.
9) Are express bets profitable?
Express with a coefficient of 200 looks cool, but it is collected by a few out of millions. Express trains are generally unprofitable at a distance, they should be resorted to extremely rarely. And a maximum of 2-3 events. And the disadvantage is that the probabilities are multiplied. Let's say you give 60% to each of the matches that they will come. So, that they will enter at the same time, the probability is only 36%. Are you ready to take that risk?
10) Are live betting profitable?
I do not advise climbing into live betting on your own. The majority loses just by playing live, because. It's harder to control your emotions here. An instant loss triggers the mechanism that you need to recoup. Only with vast experience behind you can turn to live. I see only 3 reasons why this tool is needed.
1. Make an overlap bet if you see that events are not developing at all as expected.
2. Bet on TO after 15 minutes of a football match. Often during this period, teams only look at each other, roll into the match, less than 10% of all goals are scored in the first 15 minutes. In this case, the coefficient, of course, will grow.
3. Live betting on the NBA. Often the game takes place "swinging" - with a change of leaders. You can take the desired handicap for a larger odds at some points in the match.
11) What are the best bookmakers?
In the CIS, I consider Marathon bookmaker to be the best office. Betting business mastodons: pinnacle and sbobet. Also great bookmakers: William hill, bet365. A little less I like 1xbet.
There is no single best strategy. I think flat is one of the best. This is either a fixed amount of bets all the time, or a % of the current/starting pot.
13) How much time do I devote to betting per day?
On average 6-8 hours. Depending on the line.
14) Why do I need all this?
You can earn on bets. I would like those who are losing now to be able to improve the situation. If you wish, you can always find mutually beneficial options if you are interested in something more than a blog.
15) Be continued...
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The most popular betting market in football is the outcomes market. There are only three options here: P1 (winning the first team), X (draw) and P2 (winning the second team). However, football painting is not limited to this one market only. A fairly popular bet also includes a double outcome. In this article, we will dwell on this market in more detail. Consider its features and even strategies.
What is a double outcome?
A double outcome is a bet that combines two bets from the main selection market at once. There are three options in this market:
- 1X is a bet that the first team will not lose the match (it will win or there will be a draw)
- X2 is a bet that the second team will not lose the match (it will win or there will be a draw)
- 12 is a bet that there will be no draw in the match (one of the teams will win).
So in some way you even put the express, only modified. To give you an idea of how the double chance market works, let's take a practical example. There is a match between Germany and Mexico. Baseline:
- German victory - 1.90;
- Draw - 3.80;
- Mexico wins - 4,333.
You think that the Germans will win, but you are not sure that they will do it in regular time. Therefore, you must simultaneously bet on their victory or a draw. But for this you still need to make calculations - how much to put and so on. In the mural of the same match there is an option 1X for a factor of 1.24. You just need to make one click and you will bet both P1 and X at the same time. Here's how it works.
Tricks
And yet, we will carry out the calculations of bets on a simple victory for Germany and a draw in the match. That is, we will try to put a double outcome through the underlying markets. After carrying out our calculations, you will be able to understand why we did it.
So, let's go back to the odds on the outcomes market in the fight Germany - Mexico:
- German victory - 1.90;
- Draw - 3.80;
- Mexico wins - 4,333.
Let's say you want to bet in total for 100 dollars. Now you need to calculate how much of that $100 is worth betting on a German win and how much on a draw. There is one simple formula for this:
K1*S-(100- S)= K2*(100- S)- S
K1 – real odds for Germany to win
K2– real odds for a draw.
S– the amount of the bet on the victory of Germany
The “real odds” are one less than what the bookmaker offers. That is, K1=0.90, K2-2.80.
0.9S-(100-S)=2.8(100-S)-S
0.9S-100+S=280-2.8S-S
So, we need to bet $66.67 on the German team to win and $33.33 on a draw. Let's calculate our potential profit:
- If the match ends with the victory of Germany: 0.9 * 66.67-33.33 (bet on a draw) = 26.67 dollars.
- If the match ends in a draw: 2.8*33.33-66.67=26.66.
As you can see, you will be able to earn $26.66. And now we remember the coefficient on 1X. All right. He was 1.24. This means that you could only win $24 from $100. You would have lost over $2.50. Still not impressed?
Here's how much it is in percentage terms: 2.67 / 2.4 * 100 \u003d 11.1%. That is, you lose more than 10% of your profits. Agree, this is not so little. That is why many players simply bet through the main market on a double outcome. There is a rational grain in this.
Main pros and cons
The main advantage of double bets is that they give you additional insurance. In some matches, you may not be sure of the outcome, and the combined option will allow you to have a margin of safety. The second positive thing is that you do not need to do any calculations (as we did above). It is enough to find a bet in the double-output market, place it, and that's it - the job is done.
Yes, you “insure” yourself through a double outcome, but you need to understand that odds on this market are not the most attractive. Especially if you compare them with P1, X, P2. You won’t be able to win much through such bets, and if something goes wrong, then there is a risk and lose a lot. Another disadvantage we discussed with you above - bookies lower the odds for double outcomes when compared with the main outcomes. Moreover, as our calculation showed, you can lose even more than 10% of your profit because of this. The numbers speak for themselves.
When is the best time to apply
There are a few basic guidelines for betting double outcomes, based on which you can develop your own strategies. For example, we advise you to pay attention to the teams that rarely draw in their national championships. This uncompromising attitude will allow you to have a good profit. For example, London Chelsea only drew three times in the entire 2016-2017 season in the English Premier League.. But usually the odds for 12 with these teams are low. Therefore, it is better to pay attention to the middle peasants, who rarely play a draw: Swansea (5 times), Crystal Palace (5). And in Germany there is Hertha, which has drawn only four times.
There is another application of the "double outcome" market - these are bets on teams that play well at home . Sometimes even non-leaders and not the strongest teams can hardly lose at their home stadium. For such teams, it is better to put 1X. In the German championship there is Cologne (only two defeats in the season) or Hoffenheim (none defeats in the whole season).
The key point in betting on the double outcome market is the study of statistics, as well as pre-match analysis. You should focus on multiple leagues. This will allow you to achieve higher accuracy in forecasts and spend less time searching for information.
Results
double outcome- an interesting betting option, which has both its advantages and disadvantages. If you really want to make a profit from betting, then you also need to calculate the "true" odds of double outcomes. This will allow you to maximize profits. As with any other type of betting, you can only succeed here if you invest time and effort.
