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On the application of intuition in business. Features of rational and intuitive decisions, appeal to past experience

On the application of intuition in business. Features of rational and intuitive decisions, appeal to past experience

30.09.2019

There are various approaches to the typology of management decisions. One classification divides them into intuitive, judgmental, and rational decisions. Judgment-based decisions are choices driven by knowledge and past experience. In contrast, rational decisions are not directly based only on past experience as "common sense", but are made on the basis of a sequence of analytical procedures.
An intuitive solution outwardly looks like an instant insight. However, this insight is possible only if a person has all the information on this issue.
Intuitive decisions are choices made on the basis of inner conviction without justification, most often not complex problems and have the following features: 1) the subject keeps the problem in mind. 2) as the problem develops, the approach can be changed. 3) simultaneous consideration of options is possible. 4) violation of the algorithm. 5) quality depends on the experience of decision makers. Therefore, when solving most often satisfactory solutions.
"+" of the intuitive solution: speed; "-" of an intuitive solution: fallacy, standardity.
Rational decisions, unlike intuitive ones, do not depend on past experience. They are based on an objective analysis of complex problem situations using scientific methods and computer technology. In this case, the term "rational" characterizes, first of all, the way the solution is developed, and not its quality. Rational decisions are made through a multi-step analytical process, but they too can be wrong. At the same time, rational choice does not exclude the use of logic and intuition, which are always actively involved in the decision-making process. Therefore, rational decisions are considered the most reasonable, since in the process of their development and adoption, all mechanisms available to a person are used - intuition, logic and calculation.
The process of rational problem solving provides not a single solution, but a set of choices.
Stages of rational problem solving:
Diagnosis of the problem - is revealed on the basis of awareness and establishment of "symptoms". Some common symptoms are poor quality and productivity, excessive costs, multiple conflicts. To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external information. Hierarchical structures can suffer from information overload, so it is important to distinguish and filter relevant and irrelevant information. Relevant information is data relating only to a particular problem, purpose, and time period.
Formulate constraints and decision criteria - possible solutions to problems must be realistic. Objective limitations can be - lack of funds, insufficiency of components, resources, technologies; laws and ethical considerations, as well as hierarchical deprivation of authority. In addition to restrictions, it is necessary to determine the standards (criteria) for decision-making.
Identification of Alternatives - An in-depth problem analysis is needed to develop a wide range of truly different alternatives. After compiling a list of all ideas, you should proceed to evaluate each alternative.
Evaluation of alternatives - comparison of decisions with each other and for compliance with the criterion (standards) for making decisions. All decisions should be expressed in certain forms in which the goal is expressed and a standard assessment should be given for each parameter.
Final choice - the managerial level simply selects the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences.
Rational decisions are justified and accurate.
For rational decisions, the following methods are used: 1) Calculation and analytical - aimed at substantiating decisions aimed at developing and improving existing trends (predictive analysis). 2) Expert methods: the method of paired comparisons (used when it is necessary to exclude the worst options); documentation method, ranking method; group survey method; decomposition method (breaking the problem into its component parts to determine the essence of the problem); analogy method (development of standard solutions); method of control questions (its task is to activate creative thinking); decision matrix method (needed to analyze complex problems). 3) program-target methods of substantiation (for the basis of strategic decisions): a method of structuring goals (quantitatively and qualitatively substantiate the goals of the organization and its divisions in terms of compliance with corporate goals).
Therefore, when choosing a method for justifying a decision, one should take into account: the complexity of the problem, the situation, criteria, preferences of the decision maker.

6) Target orientation of management decisions
The goal is the state of the control object, which the organization strives to achieve.
In general, the goal must satisfy the conditions
* be desirable for its initiator * have technical, economic and other opportunities for development and implementation * be necessary for the company's team and society, timeliness * the text of the goal should include a keyword meaning permanent change. For example, achieving, expanding, reducing, developing, maximizing profits, etc.
Consistency, complexity, consistency, reachability, specificity, flexibility, acceptability
The choice of mission determines the goals that the organization sets for itself. Therefore, it is possible to give such a definition of goals: "Goals are those areas of activity of the organization, realizing which it carries out its mission."
Strategic goals are formed when determining a long-term policy for the development of an organization, and tactical goals are formed when solving operational management problems.
Target orientation of management decisions implies
target priority. That is, the entire process of developing and implementing management decisions should be focused on achieving the planned goal. Goal orientation is achieved as a result of the use of professional management technologies for the development and implementation of management decisions, which are in their own way the art, skill and ability of the manager to exercise management influence on personnel in order to achieve the general and key goals of the organization.
Constant changes in the market make it necessary to set new goals, and therefore their implementation, which is reflected in the nature of the management process. Determining the goals of solving a problem causes difficulty due to the fact that only simple solutions, as a rule, have one goal. In most decisions, there are several of them, and contradictions between them are possible. Along with the new ones, there are goals that should be kept. For example, when solving the problem of increasing production volumes or reducing costs, one should remember about ensuring product quality. In this case, the goal that you want to keep acts as a constraint.
: the more correctly the goal is set, the more confident the performers act in its implementation.
When setting goals, their entire range should be taken into account. However, the complexity of solving the problem and the number of considered alternatives largely depend on the number of goals. It is advisable to reduce the number of goals by simplifying and aggregating them. This can be achieved as follows: firstly, to identify the presence of subgoals to achieve the main one and exclude them from the list of goals. For example, when setting the main goal - making a profit, reducing the cost of production is a sub-goal, a means to achieve it; secondly, to determine the reality of achieving the goals; targets that do not meet this condition shall be excluded; thirdly, it is desirable to combine goals that coincide in their content.
If several goals are planned, then the main one is singled out, with respect to which the search for the optimal solution is carried out.
When setting goals, it is necessary to proceed from the general interests of the system, taking into account the possible conflict of interests of individual subsystems of the enterprise, expressed for private purposes;
Signs of interrelation of the purposes and decisions: The purpose - an initial stage of development of the decision; The goal is the basis for monitoring the execution of the decision; A goal without solutions is fruitless; Decisions - a mechanism for the implementation of goals; Goals determine the criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of solutions. In order for the management system to be constructive, it is necessary to have criteria that allow assessing the degree of achievement of the goal.

7) decision maker in the process of adopting SD, styles
Personal assessments of the leader. The subjectivity of personal assessments is inevitable when ranking or prioritizing in the decision-making process. The basis for the formation of all managerial decisions is the value system of the decision maker (decision maker). The value system determines his actions and influences the choice of decision. Each person has their own value system, which determines their actions and influences the decisions they make. For example, in the process of making a managerial decision, a manager may choose an alternative that ensures compliance with social and ethical standards, but requires a lot of time. Strongly affect the quality of SD such qualities of the leader as pessimism, optimism and practicality.
The practicality of a leader is associated with extensive work experience and a well-established database of patterns of difficult situations. The optimism of the leader is based on an overestimation of the capabilities of employees, including their own, of the company itself, its suppliers and customers, perhaps.
Optimism should be supported by a high level of professionalism in management and technological capabilities of the company. Optimistically minded managers take on risky but profitable jobs for the firm and often bring seemingly failed projects to a positive result.
The manager's pessimism is based on an underestimation of the capabilities of employees, including their own, of the company itself, its suppliers and customers. The manager believes that the underestimated option will certainly be implemented, which will bring the company a stable, but low profit. This approach can be effective in traditional, low-change industries.
The management decision-making mechanism includes:
1. goal setting.2. Problem analysis.3. Setting the probable consequences of the decision made.4. Analysis with specialists of various options for solving a problem (task) .5. Selection, formulation and concretization of the optimal solution for its subsequent implementation.6. Decision-making.
Delegation of authority is the transfer of rights and responsibilities from a higher manager to a lower one, from a line manager to a head of a headquarters structure, from a manager directly to a subordinate. Skillful delegation of authority is an integral part of the process of making collective management decisions. If the manager does not delegate authority, then managerial decisions are made by him alone.
Styles: The authoritarian leadership style is characterized by rigid centralization, the process of developing management decisions from one control center, pressure on subordinates, and the use of manipulative strategies to influence staff. This style is chosen by the leadership of highly bureaucratic structures or small business organizations with a significant concentration of power in the hands of one person - the entrepreneur.
The democratic style of leadership is characterized by a high degree of participation of the labor collective or managers of the middle, lower levels of management in making strategically important decisions. In the first case, we are talking about collective decisions, and in the second, collegial ones. The democratic style is used in decentralized organizations in which management is carried out by goals and results. Such organizations are characterized by: flexible, adaptive structures, high motivation and competence of the staff.
The liberal leadership style is characterized by a certain level of opportunities for employees to participate in managerial decision-making. However, the situation in the team can develop in different ways, sometimes unpredictably. A leader who uses a liberal style may withdraw from management. In this case, the organization is managed by representatives of the "elite core", which receives unlimited access to power and resources. Clashes between different groups are possible, a sharp increase in conflicts in the team.

8) Systematic approach to SD, stages of problem solving
System analysis is a science that deals with the problem of making a decision in the conditions of analyzing a large amount of information, the purpose of applying system analysis to a specific problem is to increase the degree of validity of the decision made, to expand the set of options among which the choice is made, while indicating the methods of discarding obviously inferior to others.
The systems approach is a comprehensive integrated approach. It assumes a comprehensive consideration of specific characteristics. Making managerial decisions is the choice of one course of action from alternative options. A managerial decision is understood as the actions of a leader in order to choose the optimal action in the presence of at least two options. The complexity of choosing solutions increases as the number of options increases.
.The adoption of any management decision is preceded by an analysis aimed at exploring options. The decision criterion is the choice of the most economical option.
principles of a systematic approach:
the decision-making process should begin with the identification and clear formulation of specific goals;
it is necessary to consider the whole problem as a whole, as a single system and to identify all the consequences and relationships of each particular decision;
it is necessary to identify and analyze possible alternative ways to achieve the goal;
the goals of individual subsystems should not conflict with the goals of the entire system

9) the main directions in the theory of decision making. Normative and descriptive theory prin.
THEORY OF DECISION MAKING - a part of management theory that studies methods of analysis, development of a course of action depending on the target setting and conditions in which activities are carried out, available resources, composition of performers. A distinction is made between normative theory, which describes the rational decision-making process, and descriptive theory, which describes the practice of decision-making.
The descriptive component describes the real behavior and thinking of people in the decision-making process and is called the psychological theory of decisions. Descriptive model - a model for describing and explaining the observed facts or predicting the behavior of objects, gives practical experience in making decisions. The normative approach allows assessing the problem situation, taking into account the constraints and resources, and analyzing various options. Descriptive theory allows you to better understand how people make their choices, what factors influence the right decisions, what psychological mechanisms influence, the role of the social environment.
Normative decision theory is a science that develops methods for the formation of standard processes for making managerial decisions. Normative decision theory is a system of methods that provide decision support. These methods "organize" a person's thinking and prescribe how he should behave in the decision-making process. Currently, a large number of various methods and procedures have been developed that are designed to help people understand a difficult situation and their preferences, correctly formulate goals, restrictions, alternatives, assess their consequences and make a quality decision.
All of these methods are based on a certain concept of human decision making. Normative decision theory is based on two main concepts - utility maximization and bounded rationality.
1. The concept of utility maximization In accordance with this concept, the so-called rational person is considered, who always tries to accept the optimal, i.e. the best possible solution. Each of us has his own utility function, which reflects our individual system of preferences. When evaluating each solution, we explicitly or implicitly assign to it some value of our utility function, which shows the degree of preference of this solution compared to the others.
2. The Concept of Bounded Rationality The study of decision-making processes in organizations has led to the conclusion that in reality people rarely behave like a "rational" person. In fact, in most real situations, they are usually limited to satisfactory solutions, which are usually inferior to optimal solutions in terms of quality, but are quite acceptable from the point of view of achieving the set goal. Moreover, the head of the organization is forced to make satisfactory decisions for several reasons. First, out of a large number of possibilities, he sees only a few alternatives, and therefore it is unlikely that his choice will be optimal. Second, he cannot foresee all the possible consequences of each alternative. Thirdly, he often lacks knowledge, and therefore his decisions are usually based on very approximate and general ideas about those processes and objects that need to be controlled. Fourthly, the leader works in a “chronic” time deficit and therefore often makes mistakes. Fifthly, he does not have all the necessary information, since he makes decisions in the face of uncertainty in the external and internal environment of the organization.

10) Methods and models of decision making
The payoff matrix is one of the methods of statistical decision theory, a method that can help the manager in choosing one of several options. Rows of the matrix are alternative behavior strategies, columns are possible states of the external environment. The cells of the matrix indicate payments. Payments can mean positive results or income, as well as negative results or expenses.
Decision making under conditions of complete uncertainty of the environment is possible using three criteria.
1. MAXIMAX - focused on obtaining the maximum expected result (optimist approach). In accordance with it, the alternative is chosen as the optimal one, which gives the maximum in the cells of the payoff matrix (build a large plant)
2. MAXIMIN - focused on obtaining a guaranteed payoff in the worst state of the external environment (pessimist's approach, Wald's criterion). In accordance with it, the alternative that has the maximum value of the expected result in the least favorable state of the environment (refusal to build) is chosen as the optimal one.
3. Equilibrium approach (Laplace criterion), in which an alternative is selected with the maximum value of the payment averaged over all states of the environment.
Sensitivity analysis is the determination of the level of probability up to which a given alternative is the best. The analysis can be performed only for the case of two possible states of the external environment and any number of alternatives. This is its limitation.
Decision tree When building a tree, decision nodes represent the manager's choice of alternatives, and environment state nodes represent possible responses from the environment, preferably in more complex situations.
Model types: physical, analog (org chart, graph),
mathematical (use of symbols to describe an action or objects). Game theory is often used in modeling. She originally
was developed by the military to take into account the possible actions of the enemy. AT
business, it is used in modeling the behavior of a competitor, especially
often in connection with the problems of changing pricing policy.
The queuing theory model for determining the optimal number of service channels in relation to the demand for these channels.
inventory management model. This model is often used for
optimization of order execution time, as well as to determine the necessary
resources and space for the storage of certain products.
The linear programming model is applied to
determining the optimal distribution of scarce resources in the presence of
competing needs.
Simulation modeling is applied in situations too
difficult to use mathematical methods
Economic analysis is a form of modeling. An example
can serve as an economic analysis of the effectiveness of a firm.
time series analysis. It is based on the assumption that the patterns of the past can predict the future. This method reveals the tendencies of the past and projects them into the future.
The causal method is the study of the statistical relationship between
considered factor and other variables. Jury opinion. Expectation model. It is based on a survey of consumers and a generalization of their opinions.
Delphi Method - Its essence lies in the fact that experts fill out
special questionnaires on the problem under consideration. Each of them
individually forms its own forecast. These predictions are then passed on to everyone
experts involved in the discussion. They get opinion
colleagues. and possibly adjust their previous forecast based on new
ideas or information. This procedure is repeated three or four times until
Ultimately, all experts will not come to a consensus.

There are two points to keep in mind when considering decision-making processes. The first is that decisions are usually relatively easy to make. Everything that a person does in this case comes down to choosing a course of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is a psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes feelings. Therefore, it is not surprising that the methods used by the leader to make decisions vary from spontaneous to highly logical. A rational approach to decision making is described below, but here it is important to remember that the leader is influenced by such psychological factors as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values. Next, we consider the influence of some behavioral factors on the process of making managerial decisions.

intuitive
solutions

Solutions Based
on judgments

Rational
solutions

Rice. 4.10. Classification of the decision-making process

Although any particular decision rarely falls into any one category, it can be argued that the decision-making process is intuitive, judgmental, and rational (Figure 4.10).

Intuitive Solutions. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of Feel that he is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. What we call insight or sixth sense are intuitive solutions.. Management specialist Peter Schoederbeck (1971) points out that “While increasing information about a problem can be of great help to decision-making by middle managers, those at the highest echelons of power still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, the computer allows management to pay more attention to data, but does not cancel the time-honored managerial intuitive know-how” (Meskon M., 1994). A significant dependence of top-level managers on intuition was confirmed in his research by prof. Minzenberg (1973).

According to another study of the activities of top managers, 80% of the interviewed leaders said that they discovered that they had some specific serious problem only thanks to “an informal exchange of information and intuition” (Meskon M., 1994). Dr. Jonas Sok (1979), who discovered the polio vaccine, states: “Intuition is something the biology of which we still do not understand. But always, waking up in the morning in a pleasant excitement, I think that she has in store for me for today, as if waiting for seafood. I work hand in hand with her and rely on her. She is my partner." Paul Cook (1983), founder and president of materials science firm Rachem, says that almost all of his decisions are intuitive, and the big decisions he regretted were not based on intuition.

In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product. However, he will be able to produce and sell at a profit only some of its types. Moreover, in some cases, the manager does not even know the possible options at first. Thus, a manager who relies solely on intuition is faced with enduring chance. Statistically speaking, the chances of making the right choice without any application of logic are low.

Judgment Based Decisions. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive, because their logic is not obvious. A judgmental decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience.(Meskon M., 1994). A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. When, for example, you make a choice whether to study a management program or an accounting program, you are likely to make a decision based on judgment based on the experience of introductory courses in each subject. If you have received an A in several management programs and only a C in accounting, you will probably choose to improve further in management.

Judgment as the basis of organizational decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to be repetitive. In this case, the previously adopted decision can work again no worse than before (this is the main advantage of programmed decisions). A simple example concerns the hiring of people trained in management, which happens hundreds of times a year in a large organization. Despite the success of psychological testing, nothing has been invented that would guarantee success in management by 100%. Therefore, some organizations may make a judgmental decision to hire only Ph.D. in Management (or MBA) holders who have received high marks in management training programs because they have performed better in the past than recruits with university degrees in the same specialties. .

Another example is the decision to give the competent secretary the right to answer all routine correspondence without external oversight. Many such examples could be cited, because judgment is the basis of many daily managerial decisions. This is why employers tend to place a high value on experience when hiring.

Since the decision based on judgment is made in the head of the manager, it has such a significant advantage as the speed and cheapness of its adoption. It relies on common sense, but true common sense is very rare. This is all the more true when dealing with people, because often the situation is distorted by the needs of people and other factors. Perhaps more importantly, judgment alone is not enough to make a decision when the situation is unique or very complex. The vice president of Booz, Ellen & Hamilton, an international consulting firm, points out: “Many managers still believe that common sense can solve all problems. However, what appears to be simple may well turn out to be extremely complex. The problem can only seem obvious” (Gerald Tavernier, 1979).

The judgment cannot be related to the situation, which is really new, because the manager has no experience on which he could base a logical choice. This should include any situation that is new to the organization, such as a change in product mix, the development of a new technology, or the trial of a reward system that differs from the current one. In a difficult situation, judgment can be a poor adviser, since the factors that need to be taken into account are too many for the "naked" human mind and he is not able to cover and compare them all. For example, shortly after the Second World War, the leaders of American automobile factories visited a Volkswagen in Germany. Ernest Breach, then president of Ford, came to the conclusion that this "car was worthless" and should never be sold in the US. Ten years later, however, Ford launched the Volkswagen-like Edsel in what turned out to be one of the biggest failures in automotive history (David Frost and Michael Deakin, 1983).

Because judgment is always based on experience, an over-reliance on experience tends to bias decisions in directions familiar to leaders from their previous actions. Because of this bias, the leader may miss a new alternative that should be more effective than familiar choices. More importantly, a manager who is overly committed to judgment and accumulated experience may consciously or unconsciously avoid exploiting opportunities to invade new areas. If you bring this idea to the end, then the fear of new areas of activity can end in disaster. As semanticist Stuart Chase has pointed out, many of us are slaves to linear thinking. Very often we hear the words: "We have always done it this way."

Adapting to the new and complex will obviously never be easy. The danger of failure due to making a bad decision cannot be ruled out. However, in many cases, the leader is able to significantly increase the likelihood of making the right choice by approaching the decision rationally.

Rational Decisions. The main difference between a rational decision and a judgmental decision is that the former does not depend on past experience. A rational decision is substantiated with the help of an objective analytical process of the type considered in the next section (Meskon M., 1994).

Decision making is the essence of the management process, its initial and most critical stage. A managerial decision is a deliberate conclusion about the need to take some actions (or, conversely, refrain from them) related to the achievement of the organization's goals and overcoming the problems it faces. This is the process of choosing the most preferable from the set of available alternatives (goals, methods of action, etc.). Therefore, decision-making acts as a process that requires organization and management.

Management decisions are made at any stage of management.

There are three approaches to decision making:

-intuitive(inner insight; characteristic of senior managers),
-judgmental(a choice based on knowledge or accumulated experience - common sense; a cheap and fast way, but only suitable for recurring situations and shifts the manager's decisions towards directions already familiar to him),
- rational(justified by an objective analytical process and independent of past experience).

INTUITIVE SOLUTIONS. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of Feel that he is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. What is called insight or sixth sense are intuitive solutions. Dr. Jonas Sok, who discovered the polio vaccine, states: “Intuition is something that we still don't understand the biology of. But always, waking up in the morning in a pleasant excitement, I think: what did she have in store for me for today, as if I'm waiting for seafood. I work hand in hand with her and rely on her. She is my partner." In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product. However, to produce and sell with profit he will succeed in only some of its species. Moreover, in some cases, the manager does not even know the possible options at first. Thus, a manager who relies solely on intuition is faced with enduring chance. Statistically speaking, the chances of making the right choice without any application of logic are low.

JUDGMENT-BASED DECISIONS. Judgment based decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. Judgment as the basis of organizational decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to be repetitive. In this case, the previously adopted decision can work again no worse than before (this is the main advantage of programmed decisions). Since the decision based on judgment is made in the head of the manager, it has such a significant advantage as the speed and cheapness of its adoption. It relies on common sense, but true common sense is very rare. This is all the more true when dealing with people, because often the situation is distorted by the needs of people and other factors. Perhaps more importantly, judgment alone will not be enough to make a decision when the situation is unique or very complex. The judgment cannot be related to the situation, which is really new, because the manager has no experience on which he could base a logical choice. In a difficult situation, judgment can turn out to be poor, because the factors that need to be taken into account are too many for the "unaided" human mind and he is not able to cover and compare them all. Because judgment is always based on experience, an over-reliance on experience tends to bias decisions in directions familiar to leaders from their previous actions. Because of this bias, the manager may miss out on a new alternative that should be more effective than familiar choices. More importantly, a manager who is overly committed to judgment and accumulated experience may consciously or unconsciously avoid exploiting opportunities to invade new areas. If you bring this idea to the end, then the fear of new areas of activity can end in disaster. Adapting to the new and complex will obviously never be easy. The danger of failure due to making a bad decision cannot be ruled out. However, in many cases, the leader is able to significantly increase the likelihood of making the right choice by approaching the decision rationally.

RATIONAL SOLUTIONS. The main difference between rational and judgmental decisions is that the former does not depend on past experience. The rational decision is justified by an objective analytical process of the type described below.

Stages of a rational decision: Fig.7.

Figure 7

The first phase in diagnosing a complex problem is recognizing and identifying symptoms of difficulty or opportunity. concept "symptom" used here in quite a medical sense. Some common symptoms of organizational sickness are low profits, sales, productivity, and quality, excessive costs, multiple organizational conflicts, and high employee turnover. Usually several symptoms complement each other. Excessive costs and low profits, for example, are often inseparable.

Identifying symptoms helps to identify the problem in a general way. It also helps to reduce the number of factors that should be taken into account in relation to management. However, just as a headache can be a symptom of overwork or a brain tumor, a common symptom such as low profitability is due to many factors. Therefore, it is generally prudent to avoid immediate action to eliminate the symptom, which some managers tend to do. Much like a doctor who takes a sample and studies it to determine the true causes of illness, the manager must delve deeply to uncover the causes of organizational inefficiency. To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external (relative to the organization) information. Increasing the amount of information does not necessarily improve the quality of the solution. Therefore, in the course of observations, it is important to see the differences between relevant and irrelevant information and be able to separate one from the other.

RELEVANT INFORMATION (relevant - relevant) - this is data relating only to a specific problem, person, purpose and period of time.

Since relevant information is the basis of the solution, it is natural to strive, if possible, for its maximum accuracy and relevance to the problem. It can be difficult for an organization to obtain comprehensive, accurate information on an issue. Study of the communication process, psychological factors always slightly misrepresent information. The fact that there is a problem can create stress and anxiety that greatly increase the distortion.

2. FORMULATION OF LIMITS AND CRITERIA FOR DECISION MAKING. Restrictions vary and depend on the situation and individual leaders. Some general limitations are the inadequacy of the means; insufficient number of workers with the required qualifications and experience, inability to purchase resources at affordable prices; the need for technology that has not yet been developed or is too expensive; exceptionally intense competition; laws and ethical considerations. As a rule, there are fewer restrictions for a large organization than for a small one or one with many difficulties.

A significant constraint on all managerial decisions, although sometimes completely removable, is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization determined by the top management (this topic is discussed in the section on the process of organizing a case). In short, a manager can only make or implement a decision if top management has given him the right to do so.

In addition to identifying constraints, the manager needs to define the standards by which alternative choices are to be judged. These standards are called decision criteria. They act as recommendations for evaluating decisions. 3. 3.DETERMINATION OF ALTERNATIVES. The next step is to formulate a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and, thereby, enable the organization to achieve its goals. However, in practice, the manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative. Moreover, considering a very large number of alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the leader tends to limit the number of options for serious consideration to just a few alternatives that seem to be the most desirable.

Instead of looking for the best possible solution, people keep trying alternatives only until one comes up that satisfies a certain acceptable minimum standard. Managers understand that finding the best solution is too time-consuming, costly, or difficult. Instead, they choose a solution that will solve the problem.

Care should, however, be taken to cover a sufficiently wide range of possible solutions. An in-depth analysis of difficult problems is needed to develop several truly different alternatives, including the possibility of inaction. When management fails to assess what will happen if nothing is done, there is a danger of not resisting the demand for immediate action. Action for the sake of action increases the likelihood of responding to the external symptom of the problem, rather than its main cause. Having selected alternatives, it is necessary to evaluate them.

4. EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES. The next step is to evaluate possible alternatives. When they are identified, a certain preliminary assessment is necessary. After compiling a list of all ideas, you should proceed to evaluate each alternative. When evaluating decisions, the manager determines the advantages and disadvantages of each of them and the possible overall consequences. It is clear that any alternative is associated with some negative aspects. Almost all important management decisions involve a compromise.

To compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which to measure the likely outcomes of each possible alternative. These standards are called decision criteria, and are set in step 2. This step can be tricky because it's impossible to compare things unless they're the same type -- it's pointless to directly compare apples to oranges. All decisions should be expressed in certain forms. It is desirable that this be the form in which the goal is expressed.

When evaluating possible solutions, the manager tries to predict what will happen in the future. The future is always uncertain. Many factors, including a change in the external environment and the impossibility of implementing a solution, can interfere with the implementation of the intended. Therefore, an important point in the assessment is to determine the likelihood of implementation of each possible solution in accordance with the intentions. If the consequences of a decision are favorable, but the chance of its implementation is small, it may turn out to be a less desirable option. The manager includes probability in the assessment, taking into account the degree of uncertainty or risk, which is discussed later in this chapter.

5. CHOICE OF AN ALTERNATIVE. If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a choice, that is, to make a decision. The manager simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences. However, if many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no single alternative is the best choice. In this case, good judgment and experience play a major role.

Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve an optimal solution, the manager, as a rule, does not dream of such in practice. Researcher Herbert Simon points out that when solving a problem, the leader tends to behave in what he calls "satisfying" rather than "maximizing." Usually the optimal solution is not found due to time constraints and the inability to take into account all relevant information and alternatives. Because of these limitations, the leader tends to choose a course of action that is obviously acceptable, but not necessarily the best possible.

REALIZATION. The real value of the solution becomes apparent only after its implementation. According to fig. 8, the process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative. Simply choosing a course of action is of little value to an organization. To solve a problem or capitalize on an opportunity, the solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness in the implementation of a decision will increase if it is recognized by those affected by it. Recognition of a solution is rare, but it is automatic, even if it is obviously good.

Rice. eight

Sometimes the leader can entrust the decision to those who will have to execute it. More often than not, he is forced convince in the correctness of his point of view of other people in the organization, to prove to people that his choice is good both for the organization and for each individual. Some leaders see persuasion as a waste of time, but the "I'm right or wrong, I'm the boss" approach generally doesn't work in today's educated world.

As will become clear when considering the issues of motivation and leadership, the chances of effective implementation are greatly increased when the people involved have contributed to the decision and sincerely believe in what they are doing. Therefore, a good way to gain acceptance for a decision is to involve other people in the process of making it. It is up to the leader to choose who should decide. However, there are situations when a leader is forced to make a decision without consulting others. The participation of employees in decision-making, like any other method of management, will not be effective in every situation.

Moreover, strong support alone does not guarantee proper implementation of the decision. The full implementation of decisions requires the activation of the entire management process, in particular its organizing and motivational functions.

FEEDBACK. Another phase that enters the process of making a managerial decision and begins after that, how the decision began to act is the establishment of feedback. A tracking and control system is needed to ensure that actual results are consistent with those expected at the time the decision was made. In this phase, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to obtain. Feedback -- i.e. the receipt of data about what happened before and after the implementation of the decision - allows the manager to correct it, while the organization has not yet suffered significant damage.

Moscow Socio-Economic Institute

ESSAY

On the discipline of management on the topic “1. Rational and intuitive decisions. 2. Importance of information in management ”

Completed by a student of the 3rd year

13 group Chebakova Vera Sergeevna

Izhevsk 2010

1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………

2. Chapter I. The essence of rational and intuitive decisions…………………

1.1. Rational and intuitive decisions………………………………….

1.2. Stages of rational problem solving………………………………..

1.3. Emotions and intuitive rationalism of the Intellect………………………

3. Chapter II. The meaning and essence of information in management…………………

2.1. Definition of information and its types……………………………………

2.2. Categories of management information……………………………….

2.3. Sources of information………………………………………………….

2.4. Usefulness of information…………………………………………………

4. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………..

5. List of used literature……………………………………….

Introduction

Management is the science of managing an organization that operates in a market environment and is focused on achieving quality, efficiency and profitability.

In order to formulate and achieve the goals of the organization, management is necessary. Management is the process of planning, organizing, motivating and controlling. According to Peter F. Drucker, management is a special kind of activity that turns an unorganized crowd into an effective, purposeful and productive group. Management is necessary to coordinate all the tasks of the organization.

Management decisions, no matter how well they are theoretically justified and supported by research, are just ideas, thoughts. And the goal of management is the performance of real work by real people. A successful decision is one that is implemented practically - turns into action - efficiently and effectively.

A person can be called a manager only when he makes organizational decisions or implements them through other people. Decision-making is an integral part of any managerial function, the need for decision-making permeates everything that the manager does, formulating goals and achieving them.

Not a single person, growing up, can not learn in practice the decision-making process. Both the ability to communicate and the ability to make decisions is a skill that develops with experience. Each person during the day makes hundreds, and throughout life - thousands and thousands of decisions.

In modern conditions of world socio-economic development, information support of the management process has become a particularly important area, which consists in the collection and processing of information necessary for making sound management decisions.

The governing body is usually tasked with obtaining information, processing it, as well as generating and transmitting new derivative information in the form of control actions. Such impacts are carried out in operational and strategic aspects and are based on previously obtained data, the reliability and completeness of which largely determines the successful solution of many management problems.

It should be noted that any decisions made require the processing of large amounts of information; The competence of a manager depends not so much on past experience, but on having enough information about a rapidly changing situation and the ability to use it.

It is necessary to know and understand future leaders. Not only the fate of a particular person or enterprise depends on this, but, perhaps, the fate of Russia as a whole, its role in the international arena. For me, as a future manager, “information potential” plays a very important role. Because, our days dictate an urgent need to feel confident on your feet in a society where the importance of information for all spheres of public life is constantly increasing. There is no doubt that the key to success in such a society will be the ability to clearly navigate the vast ocean of information and the ability to effectively use this information.

Chapter I . The Essence of Rational and Intuitive Decisions

1.1. Rational and intuitive decisions

There are two points to keep in mind when considering decision-making processes. The first is that decisions are usually relatively easy to make. Everything that a person does in this case comes down to choosing a course of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is a psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. Therefore, it is not surprising that the methods used by the leader to make decisions vary from spontaneous to highly logical. The leader is under the influence of such psychological factors as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values.

Although any particular decision rarely falls into any one category, it can be argued that the decision-making process is intuitive, judgmental, or rational.

Intuitive Solutions is a choice made only on the basis of the feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. Management specialist Peter Schoederbeck points out that "While increased information about a problem can be a great help to decision-making for middle managers, those at the top echelons of power still have to rely on intuitive judgments.

In a complex organizational situation, thousands of choices are possible. An enterprise with enough money can, for example, produce any product. However, he will be able to produce and sell at a profit only some of its types. Statistically speaking, the chances of making the right choice without any application of logic are low.

Judgmental decisions are choices based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past.
Judgment as the basis of organizational decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to be repetitive. In this case, the previously adopted decision can work again no worse than before (this is the main advantage of programmed decisions). Since the decision based on judgment is made in the head of the manager, it has such a significant advantage as the speed and cheapness of its adoption. It relies on common sense, but true common sense is very rare. This is all the more true when dealing with people, because often the situation is distorted by the needs of people and other factors. But judgment alone will not be enough to make a decision when the situation is unique or very complex.
The judgment cannot be related to the situation, which is really new, because the manager has no experience on which he could base a logical choice. This should include any situation that is new to the organization, such as a change in product mix, the development of a new technology, or the trial of a reward system that differs from the current one.

Because judgment is always based on experience, an over-reliance on experience tends to bias decisions in directions familiar to leaders from their previous actions. Because of this bias, the manager may miss out on a new alternative that should be more effective than familiar choices. More importantly, a manager who is overly committed to judgment and accumulated experience may consciously or unconsciously avoid exploiting opportunities to invade new areas. If you bring this idea to the end, then the fear of new areas of activity can end in disaster. Adapting to the new and complex will obviously never be easy. The danger of failure due to making a bad decision cannot be ruled out. However, in many cases, the leader is able to significantly increase the likelihood of making the right choice by approaching the decision rationally.

Rational Decisions are taken based on the strict logic of the process of finding a solution, are based on the use of scientific methods.
The main difference between rational and judgmental decisions is that the former does not depend on past experience. A rational decision is justified through an objective analytical process.

1.2. Stages of rational problem solving

Problem solving, like management, is a process, because it is a never-ending sequence of interrelated steps. The leader cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything related to and resulting from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices.

1. DIAGNOSTICS OF THE PROBLEM. The first step towards solving a problem is a definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. There are two ways of looking at the problem. According to one, a situation is considered a problem when the set goals are not achieved. Those. you know about the problem because what should have happened doesn't happen. For example, the master can determine that the performance of his site is below normal. It will be reactive control, its necessity is obvious.
A potential opportunity can also be seen as a problem. For example, actively looking for ways to improve the efficiency of a department, even if things are going well, would be proactive management. In this case, something can be done either to improve the course of things, or to take advantage of the opportunity that presents itself.
It is often difficult to fully define a problem because all parts of an organization are interconnected. The job of the marketing manager, for example, affects the job of the sales manager, the foremen in production, the research and development department, and every other person in the company. In a large organization, there may be hundreds of such interdependencies. Defining a problem correctly is half solving it, but this is difficult to apply to organizational decisions. As a result, diagnosing a problem in itself often becomes a multi-step procedure with intermediate decisions.

The first phase in diagnosing a complex problem is recognizing and identifying symptoms of difficulty or opportunity. There are some common symptoms of organizational sickness - low profits, sales, productivity and quality, excessive costs, numerous conflicts in the organization and high employee turnover. Usually several symptoms complement each other. Excessive costs and low profits, for example, are often inseparable. Identifying symptoms helps to identify the problem in a general way. The general symptom of the type of low profitability is due to many factors. Therefore, the manager must delve deeply into the essence to identify the reasons for the inefficiency of the organization. To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external (relative to the organization) information. Such information can be collected on the basis of formal methods, using, for example, market analysis outside the organization, and inside it - computer analysis of financial statements, interviews, invitations to management consultants or employee surveys. Information can also be collected informally, by talking about the situation and making personal observations. Increasing the amount of information does not necessarily improve the quality of the solution.
Information is relevant and irrelevant. Relevant information is data relating only to a particular problem, person, purpose, and time period. Since relevant information is the basis of the solution, it is necessary to achieve its maximum accuracy and relevance to the problem. If employees believe, for example, that management tends to see them as the source of trouble, they will consciously or unconsciously present information that more favorably illuminates their position.

2. FORMULATION OF LIMITS AND CRITERIA FOR DECISION MAKING.
When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done with it. Many possible solutions to an organization's problems will not be realistic because either the manager or the organization lacks the resources to implement the decisions made. In addition, the cause of the problem may be forces outside the organization, such as laws that the leader has no power to change. Limitation of corrective actions narrows the possibilities in decision making.

The leader must determine the essence of the restrictions and only then identify alternatives. If this is not done, at least a lot of time will be wasted. It is even worse if an unrealistic course of action is chosen. Naturally, this will exacerbate rather than solve the existing problem. Restrictions vary and depend on the situation and individual leaders. Some general limitations are the inadequacy of funds, the insufficient number of workers with the required qualifications and experience; inability to procure resources at affordable prices; the need for technology, exceptionally fierce competition; laws and ethical considerations. A significant constraint on all managerial decisions is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization, determined by the top management. Those. a manager can make or implement a decision only if top management has given him these rights.
The manager also needs to determine the standards by which to evaluate alternative choices - decision criteria. They act as recommendations for evaluating decisions. For example, when making a decision to buy a car, you can focus on the criteria of cost, economy, capacity, attractiveness, and good performance in terms of service.

3. IDENTIFICATION OF ALTERNATIVES. The next stage is the formulation of a set of alternative solutions to the problem. It is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and thereby enable the organization to achieve its goals. But in practice, the manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative. And considering a very large number of alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the manager limits the number to just a few alternatives that seem to be the most desirable. Finding the best solution is too time consuming, costly or difficult. Therefore, they choose a solution that will solve the problem.

It is necessary to take into account a fairly wide range of possible solutions. An in-depth analysis of difficult problems is needed to develop several truly different alternatives, including the possibility of inaction. When management fails to assess what will happen if nothing is done, there is a danger of not resisting the demand for immediate action. Action for the sake of action increases the likelihood of responding to the external symptom of the problem, rather than its main cause.

4. EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES. When identifying alternatives, a certain preliminary assessment is necessary. Only after compiling a list of all ideas, you should proceed to the evaluation of each alternative. When evaluating decisions, the advantages and disadvantages of each of them and the possible overall consequences are determined. Any alternative is associated with some negative aspects. Almost all important management decisions involve a compromise. To compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which to measure the likely outcomes of each possible alternative.
All decisions should be expressed in certain forms. It is desirable that this be the form in which the goal is expressed. In business, profit is a constant need and a top priority, so decisions can be expressed in monetary terms and as an estimate of their impact on profit. In a non-profit organization, the main goal is usually to provide the best service at the lowest cost. Therefore, monetary terms can be used to compare the consequences of decisions in similar organizations.

5. CHOICE OF AN ALTERNATIVE. If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a choice, that is, to make a decision. The manager simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no alternative is the best choice. In this case, good judgment and experience play a major role.

REALIZATION. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative. Simply choosing a course of action is of little value to an organization. To solve a problem or capitalize on an existing opportunity, the solution must be implemented. Sometimes the leader can entrust the decision to those who will have to execute it. More often, he is forced to convince other people in the organization of the correctness of his point of view, to prove to people that his choice is good both for the organization and for everyone individually.
The chances of effective implementation increase significantly when the people involved have contributed to the decision and sincerely believe in what they are doing. Therefore, a good way to gain acceptance for a decision is to involve other people in the process of making it. However, there are situations when a leader is forced to make a decision without consulting others. The participation of employees in decision-making, like any other method of management, will not be effective in every situation.

The full implementation of decisions requires the activation of the entire management process, in particular its organizing and motivational functions.

FEEDBACK. Another phase that enters the process of making a managerial decision and begins after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback. In this phase, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to obtain. Feedback - i.e. the receipt of data about what happened before and after the implementation of the decision - allows the manager to correct it, while the organization has not yet suffered significant damage. Evaluation of the decision by management is carried out primarily with the help of the control function.

1.3. Emotions and intuitive rationalism of Intellect.

Despite the unconscious (unconscious) nature of the adoption of many decisions by a Human, their results turn out to be quite useful and even logical. There are some internal intuitive assessments of the expediency of performing certain actions. A certain logic of the intuitive rationalism of the Intellect is evident both in the decisions of Man and in the decisions of many other representatives of the entire living world. The intellect first of all preserves itself, then satisfies its needs for food, drink, warmth and rest, and then solves questions about leisure and pleasures, mainly related to love problems. At different stages of the formation of the Personality and in different situations, the solution of these problematic tasks and the achievement of the corresponding Goals change priorities.
Let's try to define the essence of the intuitive rationalism of the Human Intellect and the semantics of the intuitive logical rules used by it for making decisions. We will use the basic method of metapsychoanalysis, which consists in highlighting individual mental phases (MF) of decision-making by a Human, each of which marks a certain stage of overcoming fear and using a motivating motive. Sometimes MFs are accompanied by mental comments that are given to oneself at the conclusion of the relevant stage of decision making.
In the generalized meta-model of the intuitive rationalism of the Intellect, we single out three main types of unconsciously taken into account and used factors:
- motivating motives;
- holding back attitudes and fears;
implementation rules.

The method of metapsychoanalysis considers the intuitive rationalism of the Intellect as the ability to intuitively-logically substantiate and evaluate the expediency of making certain decisions, which in many cases turn out to be quite useful and timely. Consequently, there are some, not perceived by consciousness, intuitive-logical rules and the corresponding intuitive logic of decision-making, the formalization of which will ensure the modeling of the glorified intuition of a Human in EMOS. About the inciting supraconscious motives of high love and restraining attitudes, determined by morality and the Faith of Man, it has already been said in section 1.1. These spiritual or moral attitudes are characteristic of a Person who distinguishes between Good and Evil.
In the study of intuition, it is necessary to single out those unconscious intuitive logical rules that, first of all, induce a Human to active actions, and secondly, predetermine his quick reactions and intuitively "correct" actions in a variety of situations. Using a systematic approach, we distinguish two types of intuitive logical conclusions and corresponding rules:
incentive intuitive-logical rules of behavior and logic;
implementation intuitive-logical rules of behavior and logic.

Among the impelling motives of the Human Intellect to make decisions, a significant place is occupied by the motives for satisfying urgent needs based on sensations: hunger, thirst, cold, fatigue. These are the leading, rational and constantly renewing (encouraging) motives of the entire living world in meeting the basic needs for food, drink, warmth and sleep, which are the basis of life support. No less important and priority for Man and the whole living world are intuitive motivating motives and implementation rules for obtaining pleasure, among which the motives of love and passion stand out, periodically solving the given priority task by nature of generating their own kind.

Since the motives of life support and procreation are undoubtedly rational, we will single out the corresponding semantic areas for the use of intuitive logical conclusions. These are: the intuitive logic of satisfaction of needs and the intuitive logic of obtaining pleasure, each of which has the corresponding types and versions of the rules of incentive and implementation logic.
It is not difficult to notice that there are significant differences in individual intuitive conclusions and decisions reached by individual representatives of the living world, including Man. The fact is that due to different living conditions and different genetically transmitted abilities for self-learning, people use different versions of the incentive and implementation rules of the corresponding intuitive logic for satisfying needs and / or receiving pleasure, which include: primitive, simplest and weighted versions of the rules of inference .

The general metamodel of the use of incentive and implementation rules of intuitive logic for decision-making by a Human is presented in Fig. 1-7.

The intuitions in each decision-making MF are accompanied by mental emotional comments, which the reader can verify for himself. Cycles and phases of intuitive decision-making can be repeated many times depending on the "decisiveness" or "indecision" of the Human. The accumulated experience of intuitive decision-making is reflected in the skills to implement certain actions, which are the right way to overcome fears.
Among the limiting factors and emotions that are especially taken into account in the entire process of intuitive supraconscious decision-making by a Human, there are fears that are already generated by the subconscious on the basis of an internal basic natural sense of self-preservation. Fear is the leading emotional motivation for both restraint and quick actions of a Human in special emergency situations based on a subconscious feeling of anxiety and the corresponding consciously or subconsciously perceived dangers to his life and the very existence of a Human.

In principle, the nature of emotional-sensory and intuitive-logical decisions is different, since they are made by different subsystems of the Intellect. But intuitively made decisions also necessarily take into account restraining (encouraging) emotions, in particular fears. Undoubtedly, a Human's fears can increase depending on the degree of threats to his existence. Let us single out four stages of fear, which to a certain extent correspond to the four stages of Evil manifested by Man in relation to Man, and sincerely wish the reader never to appear on the last stages of fear!
Since the Intellect, in accordance with motives and love, finds hopes and, accordingly, builds its plans, the threats of violation of personal plans give rise to the first stage of fear, as shown in Fig. 1-8.

More terrible than material or physical suffering is the loss of that social position that has already been acquired by Man and constitutes his environment. The second stage of fear is the fear of losing friends and work, which Man constantly experiences in the "free" world. A threat to the well-being of the nearest micro-world of Man is already an exit to the third stage of fear, because the loss of loved ones and one's home, the loss of freedom, a sharp change in the whole way of life and way of life always turn out to be painful and difficult to perceive by the consciousness, subconsciousness and supraconsciousness of Man. This causes a profound change in the entire organization of the Human Intellect, a rejection of many previously firmly recognized values.
Naturally, the highest (fourth) level of fear is generated by an inevitable threat to the very existence of Man and impotence before Death! The verdict and expulsion to hard labor, the throw from the trench to the attack - these and other moments reflect the stay of a Man at the fourth stage of fear. The apotheosis of the fear of impotence or "black fear" is the state of a person sentenced to Death and standing on the scaffold, when "a black wave of vile suffocating fear rises from the depths of the Human body, darkens his consciousness, squeezes his throat and squeezes his heart." Emotionally, he is dying of fear.

With the metapsychoanalysis of emotions and intuitive rationalism of Man, such an important supraconscious motive for making decisions and actions as the protection of the Good remained out of sight. It may seem that this is only a conscious moral motive, perceived with Faith and prompting the Intellect to fight Evil. But in fact, the fight against Evil does not necessarily mean the defense of Good.

In the living world and the world of Man, the fight against "Evil" can end in the victory of an even greater Evil. The struggle between mafia clans or party groups does not at all mean striving for justice or Good for others. At the same time, the protection of Good is more often only declared by public organizations and morality to support the Sheep Man, who loves and knows how to work, but due to family, material or educational (mental) problems, is always a defenseless target and "food" for the Wolf Man .
Fortunately for Mankind and the whole living world, among the emotions and intuitive motivating motives of some representatives of the living world, including Man, a very high place is occupied by intuitive Compassion, which is really underdeveloped in many people. Its nature is obvious.
Compassion is the primordial intuitive need and motivating motive of a Human and other representatives of the living world to take care of their offspring, which is intuitively transferred to all the weak and destitute in accordance with the subconsciously perceived high Faith and Love for one's Ideals, which are characteristic only of a spiritually oriented person. Both in wildlife and among people, the so-called "cuckoos" are increasingly common, having completely suppressed compassion in themselves - this most important motive for action, since, firstly, it does not apply to themselves, but is always transferred to others, and, secondly, it does not correspond to their intuitive logic of personal Freedom, the conclusions of which are formed by analyzing the sensations of pleasure or displeasure from communicating with children, the weak or the destitute.
On the path of knowledge in the formation of ancient and new creeds, this great intuitive motivating motive-Compassion became the basis for the renunciation of all the blessings of the wisest of the Prophets Gotami Buddha, the self-sacrifice of Jesus Christ and the coming into the metapsychological world of the Islamic creed of Mohammed. The whole life of a Human is determined by Suffering or pulsations of "drachmas" in accordance with the intuitive rhythmic logic of the Gotami Buddha, as well as liberation from Suffering as concentration in self-knowledge and Death!

All the Prophets on the path of knowing the Truth and dogma were led by Compassion, which intuitively and logically is the inversion of fear, as shown in Fig. 1-9.

The four levels of Compassion enable a Human to overcome the corresponding levels of Fear. One who walks the ladder of Compassion is undoubtedly a spiritually oriented person who is a "bearer of light" or a "beacon". Such feats of life are convincing examples of the intuitive-logical Belief in a good and bright future in the dark emotional-sensual world of Evil and Human fears. Followers of Jesus Christ, missionaries, sisters of mercy, defenders of Stalingrad, Chernobyl firefighters and many others who perform a feat always intuitively and consciously overcome fear on the basis of deep Compassion for others, showing spontaneous or steadfast (faith-pleasing) readiness to make any sacrifices for the sake of high Love for to your Ideals and ascend to all four levels of Compassion.

Primitive versions of the intuitive logic that encourages inaction are characteristic of the entire living world and individuals who, for various reasons, are in poverty and without a roof over their heads. This, for example, is the logic of meeting needs without any choice and conditions, food and sleep without observing sanitary and other standards, and much more. The same applies to primitive versions of the intuitive logic of obtaining pleasure, for example, sex in the same conditions.
The simplest versions of the incentive and implementation rules of intuitive logic are peculiar to the Intellect of young people. This is the maximalist logic, whether it be in satisfying needs or obtaining pleasure. However, the unlimited claims of some young people in courts or educational institutions very soon run into the same claims of others, which naturally leads some of them to defeat and Suffering. As the Intellect develops, the young Man already masters weighted versions over conscious intuitive logic.

The more failures and sufferings that fall to the lot of a Man, the more balanced incentive and implementation rules of intuitive logic he masters, if, of course, he remains alive and is capable of it. The easier everything is given (there are no problems), the more primitive the intuitive logic of decision-making remains. Suffering induces switching from one version of intuitive logic to another and, thus, is the "gearbox drive" of the Intellect. This is the main mechanism of self-learning, which ensures gradual development - evolution in wildlife.

Since many intuitively made decisions turn out to be not just successful, but even "wise", then the Human undoubtedly uses some rational (weighted) versions of the rules of the corresponding incentive and/or implementation logic of intuitive rationalism, which are presented in Table 1.

Table 1.

The inference rules of any intuitive logic have three versions: primitive, simplest, and weighted, with weighted versions having modifications of the first, second, and higher orders (see Section 1.3 below). The primitive implementation intuitive logic of the shortest path is characteristic of the whole living world and a very "lazy" Human. This is the logic of immobility. The very definition of "lazy" Human is a reflection of the frequent use of primitive intuitive logic of the shortest path:
"Why get up, fuss, and then go back to bed? It's better not to get up at all!"

The simplest intuitive logic of the shortest path is the logic of straight-line movement towards the set goals. It is characteristic of young people and primitive government officials and politicians.
Weighted intuitive logic of the shortest path means the dynamic determination of intermediate goals (points) of movement towards the set initial goal (point). As the common goal is approached, the intermediate goals move forward, which naturally leads to "exponential" movement, which gives rise to other movements towards the goals: spiral, "outflanking" and other weighted paths of the second, third and higher orders to achieve tactical, operational and strategic goals.

It is known that it was the intuitive implementation logic of the shortest path and rhythmic logic that gave rise to the natural sciences: the first - geometry, the second - mathematics and other analytical and harmonized knowledge. Primitive rhythmic logic notes ups and downs, but cannot even establish their periodicity. It generates chaotic Human behavior. This is the logic of chaos. A Human with primitive intuitive rhythmic logic has no biological clock and cannot plan any actions in time.
The simplest implementation rhythmic logic already highlights the main harmonic and determines the established (habitual) behavior of a Human. A stable, habitual, rhythmic repetition of actions ensures the most rational use of resources, for example, through the habitual alternation of work and rest, which ensures a uniform mental and physical load of a Person with minimal emotional costs. This logic intuitively generates a supraconscious sense of rhythm and repetition, often referred to as the biological clock. Like other simplest versions of intuitive logic, the corresponding model of the simplest rhythmic logic of obtaining pleasure is characteristic of young people who knock and jump to the simplest rhythms with the same phrases repeated dozens of times to the point of frenzy.

Weighted intuitive rhythmic logic gave rise not only to mathematics, statistics and probability theory, but also to many other creative achievements of Mankind: music, poetry, dance, painting and all other sciences and arts, since the success of creativity and Intelligence is provided by the basic property: intuitive knowledge of harmony, t .e. "beauty of repetition", symmetry and asymmetry in varying degrees, depending on the order of the weighted rhythmic logic inherent in Man. Such a realization logic of ever higher orders of "beauty of repetitions" makes it possible to discover and realize more and more new patterns and laws of harmony in the arts and culture, in science and technology, in personal and social relations.

The two basic links of the Ring of Knowledge: the realization of Hopes (plans) and the Life and Death of a Human generated by them are a connected and lengthy process of conscious, supraconscious and subconscious decision-making in various situations, including through the widespread use of intuitive conclusions and decisions in accordance with a concrete version of the human logic of intuitive rationalism. The creative process of supraconscious (intuitive) and conscious (professional) use and formation of new knowledge is also motivated, restrained and realized on the basis of high emotions and developed intuition of a creatively gifted Intellect.
Modeling in emotionally and morally oriented supercomputers of Human intuition, which allows making "good" and even "wonderful" decisions, will allow conducting a wide variety of research in the field of psychology, computer science, pedagogy, economics, health care and using EMOS for many others, I would like to believe , noble goals.

Chapter II . The meaning and essence of information in management

2.1 Definition of information and its types

“Information (from the Latin informatio - explanation, presentation), originally - information transmitted by people orally, in writing or in another way (using conditional signals, technical means, etc.); since the middle of the 20th century, a general scientific concept, including the exchange of information between people, a person and an automaton, an automaton and an automaton ... ”.

The most remarkable property of information is the ability to cause change. When people learn something new, they begin to live differently, and their needs for information services also change. An indispensable condition for surviving in the market and remaining competitive is to adapt to changing needs. In practice, the value of information is directly proportional to the role it plays in decision making and what is at stake in that decision. The value of information is determined by how you use it. On its own, it's worth a little.

Information designed to support decision making makes a significant contribution to the decision. It becomes a factor of production and, like labour, materials and capital, creates wealth. In this function, information is an element of competitiveness, equal in value to the skill of management.

Information consists of all objective facts and all assumptions that affect the decision maker's perception of the nature and extent of the uncertainties associated with a given problem or opportunity. Anything that has the potential to reduce the degree of uncertainty, be it facts, estimates, forecasts, generalized relationships or rumors, should be considered information.

Information types

There is a variety of types of information used by managers: facts, estimates, forecasts, generalized connections, rumors.

Fact: An event or condition that is directly observed (the simplest kind of information).

Estimates: differ from facts in that they are based on inference and/or statistical techniques rather than direct observation and calculation. Such an assessment may differ from the actual fact in two ways. Since it is based on a sample, it is affected by sampling error; moreover, it is also affected by measurement error, since it is not based on direct observation. The consequences of both errors can be minimized: the first by increasing the sample size, the second by using more accurate measurement methods.

Estimates are related to the past and present, while forecasts are related to the future. They are partly based on extrapolation of trends, partly on analogy, and partly on common sense.

In practice, generalized relationships are often used as the basis for evaluation and forecasting. For example, they are set between sales volume and factors such as national income, consumer confidence, corporate capital spending plan, and so on.

Rumor differs from fact only in that the source of information is less reliable. But rumor may be the only available source of certain types of information, such as competitors' plans. Thus, rumors occupy a certain place in the information system of any company.

2.2. Categories of management information

Management activities can be roughly divided into three main categories. And it is they, in my opinion, that determine and characterize the types and categories of management information that prevail in terms of importance and distribution.

Strategic planning information allows top management to be responsible for setting long-term goals, accumulating resources to achieve those goals, and formulating policies to achieve them. Such information may include environmental projections, economic forecasts, and demographic trends.

Control management information is used by middle-level managers to coordinate the various activities under their control, bring resources in line with tasks and develop coherent operational plans. The information these managers need may include production summaries and actions taken by other mid-level managers.

Operational information helps the lower-level manager perform routine and day-to-day operations such as payroll and financial calculations, timesheets, and inventory management. These managers would need data on interactions and problems, on policies and procedures, as well as on the activities of managers in related structures, divisions.

Although managers at different levels of an organization have different information needs (see Table 1), they all face a common “requirement” of the ILE itself. By producing more useful information on a broader basis, the system makes it easier for the controlling observer to spot bad or weak solutions. Therefore, ILE can be viewed as a built-in quality control mechanism that encourages learning by doing and using knowledge to improve skills and performance.

Matching the needs of managers with the capabilities of IMS

Management level	Managerial Responsibility	Information required by the ICS	How IIS information is used
top management	Increasing productivity, growth, accumulation and use of resources; the survival of the entire organization	Environment and trend data, forecasts, summary activity reports, exception notices	Establishing organizational goals, policies, constraints, making decisions regarding strategic plans and managing the entire organization
middle management	Allocation of resources in accordance with distributed tasks, establishment of operational plans, control of operations	Summaries of the results of operations and notices of exceptions, relevant actions and decisions of other line managers	Establishing operational plans and policies, monitoring procedures, issuing exception notifications, compiling operational summaries of resource allocation, actions and decisions for other line managers
Lower management	Production of goods or services within budgets, establishing the need for resources, transportation and storage of materials.	Free interaction reports, detailed problem reports, operational plans and policies, control procedures, actions and decisions of related managers	Drafting exception notifications and work status messages, identifying resource requirements, creating work schedules

In most companies, the lion's share of information used by managers comes from internal sources. A specialized group of workers is fully or partially engaged in information support. It may include such departments as: marketing research, sales analysis, planning, economic analysis, operations research and systems analysis.

In addition to creating such specialized groups, each company practices regular reports from line managers and employees, such as telephone sales reports, designed to obtain current market information.

Published sources provide a variety of information on many issues related to governance, such as population, economic conditions, production, sales, laws and regulations, and so on. The scope and reliability of such information varies widely across industries and countries around the world. However, it is very difficult to find a problem for which there is at least some published information.

Other companies are able to supply useful information to firms with which they agree or contact in an effort to sell goods or provide services. A consumer product manufacturer can obtain a rough estimate of sales of a competitor's new product by asking the packaging supplier for the quantity of packaging purchased by the competitor. Advertising agencies and the media regularly inform the advertiser: the former as part of their services, and the latter wishing to sell “time and place”. Buyers, especially dealers and wholesalers, are often able to provide extremely useful information about product performance, packaging or service issues, and competitor activity. Even competitors supply each other with information, despite the existence of strict legal restrictions on the types of information that can be exchanged without the risk of conspiracy penalties.

At present, an increasing share of information is supplied by firms specializing in the collection and analysis of information, subsequently offered either to any customer in the form of a standardized product, or strictly on order.

Certain requirements are imposed on the quality of information, first of all, the requirement that it satisfy the users of information, in other words, be useful.

The usefulness of information is evaluated by internal and external users, who impose the following requirements on its quality:

Relevance and timeliness of information - the ability to influence the decision of the user and satisfy his interests at the right time or by a certain date;

Reliability of information - a guarantee of the objectivity and veracity of the data presented, which implies the need to indicate the methods of collecting, recording and processing information so that users can correctly understand the purpose of the information provided and verify it;

Comparability of information - the ability to compare indicators with data from other firms, regions, states, which requires the use of certain standards in the provision of information;

Accessibility and understandability of information - presentation of information in a clear form for understanding, so that the user can use it to make a decision without fear of making a mistake. For a clear understanding of information, it is necessary that the forms of its presentation reflect the essence of the issues, be clear, without excessive detail, correctly translated into foreign languages;

·confidentiality of information - strict accounting and control over the dissemination of information among external users, as well as its content and nature.

Thus, the information must be targeted and oriented to the appropriate levels of management.

Information is needed to rationally solve problems. Sometimes, however, the information needed to make a good decision is not available or is too expensive. The cost of information should include the time of managers and subordinates spent on its collection, as well as actual costs, for example, those associated with market analysis, payment for machine time, use of external consultants, etc. Therefore, the manager must decide whether the benefit from additional information is significant, how important the decision itself is, whether it involves a significant share of resources in the organization or a small amount of money.

If it is not easy to obtain information at an affordable price, but such an opportunity will soon appear, the most correct thing for the manager is to postpone the decision. Here, however, the assumption is made that time is not a critical factor, and the cost of delay will be more than offset by the benefit of making a better decision based on additional information. Benefits and costs are largely subjective to the manager, which is particularly true of the manager's assessment of the value of their own time and the improvements expected as a result of the decision.

On Fig. Figure 2 illustrates three scenarios that a manager may face when evaluating the costs and benefits of additional information. According to option “A”, the benefit from each additional unit of information is equal to the cost of obtaining it. To the extent that management is willing to pay for additional information, it will have an additional benefit. However, the limited time and intellectual capacity of the manager in terms of assimilation and use of an increasing amount of information should, in the long run, make the purchase of additional information economically inexpedient.

The relationship between the cost of information and the benefits of acquiring it

Under Option B, the costs of obtaining additional information are offset by the benefits up to a certain point. For her, management should not seek additional information, because even if the solution is improved with its help, the costs will exceed the benefits.

Under Option C, the benefits of obtaining more information clearly outweigh the costs. In such a situation, obtaining additional information is clearly desirable. However, in this case, too, time and intellectual constraints must, in the long run, drastically reduce the benefit of acquiring information.

Conclusion

Rational and intuitive decisions are very important in any business. Each person makes a thousand decisions every day, both rational and intuitive.

Intuitive decisions are choices made only on the basis of a feeling that they are correct.

Rational decisions are made based on the strict logic of the decision-making process, based on the use of scientific methods.

The acceleration of scientific and technological progress places ever higher demands on the information support of the governing bodies. The effectiveness of this type of activity, which aims to prepare and justify management decisions, largely determines the effectiveness of management as a whole. Starting with reference and information work, the subdivisions of informing executives moved on to a serious analysis and generalization of information, developed a methodology and technology for processing information materials. Now these divisions perform the functions of qualified consultants, helping managers to form new options, substantiate or refute existing arguments, and search for various solutions.

Increasing the efficiency of using information systems is achieved through the end-to-end construction and compatibility of information systems, which allows eliminating duplication and ensuring the reuse of information, establishing certain integration links, and increasing the degree of information use.

Information support involves: the dissemination of information, that is, the provision of information to users necessary for solving managerial, scientific, production and other issues that arise in the course of activities; creation of the most favorable conditions for the effective dissemination of information.

brevity, clarity of wording, timeliness of receipt;

meeting the needs of specific managers;

accuracy and reliability, the correct selection of primary information, the optimal systematization and the continuity of the collection and processing of information.

Deep and thorough analysis is a necessary prerequisite for making managerial decisions. Without information and its analysis, the effective functioning and development of the company's activities is impossible.

List of used literature

1. Afanasiev S. V., Yaroshenko V. N. Efficiency of information management support. - M.: Economics, 1987.

2. Buzzel R. D., Cox D. F., Brown R. V. Information and risk in marketing. - M.: Economics, 1993.

3. Borisova R. A., Perchik V. F., Fridman B. A. Information support of management decisions abroad. - K .: UkrNIINTI, 1974.

4. Busygin A. V. Effective management: a course of lectures. Issue 3. - M.: Elf K, 1999.

5. Gauzner N. The theory of the “information society” and the reality of capitalism. // World economy and international relations. No. 10, 1985.

6. Gerchikova I. N. Management: Textbook. - M.: Banks and exchanges, UNITI, 1995.

7. Golubkov E.P. What decision to make? - Practicum business executive. - M.: Economics, 1990.

8. Evlanov L.G. Theory and practice of decision making. - M.: Economics, 1984.

9. Zurkovski P. Information business: an inside view. // World economy and international relations. No. 8, 1990.

10. Kardanskaya N.L. Fundamentals of Management Decision Making: Textbook. - M.: Russian business literature, 1998.

11. Collins G., Blay J. Structural methods of systems development: from strategic planning to testing. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1984.

12. Meskon M.Kh., Albert M., Hedouri F. Fundamentals of management. - M.: Delo, 2002.

13. Poppel G., Goldstein B. Information technology - millions of profits: TRANS. from English. - M.: Economics, 1990.

14. Rusinov F., Zhuravlev A. Competitiveness: education, information potential, management decision-making. // Director's consultant, No. 2(14), January 1996.

15. Soviet Encyclopedic Dictionary / Ch. Ed. A.M. Prokhorov. - 3rd ed. - M.: Soviet Encyclopedia, 1985.

16. Falmer R. M. Encyclopedia of modern management, vol. 4 M.: Finance and statistics, 1992.

A managerial decision is a product of managerial work, and its adoption is a process leading to the emergence of this product. Decision making is the conscious choice of a course of action from available options to achieve an existing goal. A decision is a form in which the control action of the subject of control on the object of control is carried out. Therefore, the quality of managerial decisions is a criterion for the effectiveness of a manager.

The solution must meet a number of requirements. Chief among them are validity, clarity of wording, feasibility, timeliness, economy, efficiency (the degree of achievement of the goal in comparison with the expenditure of resources).

As a rule, decisions should be made where a problematic situation arises; for this, managers of the appropriate level must be given the appropriate authority, at the same time making them responsible for the state of affairs at the managed facility. A very important condition for the positive impact of a decision on the work of an organization is its consistency with those decisions that were made earlier (both vertically and horizontally (this, of course, does not mean the case when the task is to radically change the entire development policy) .

2. Classification of management decisions

Organizations make a wide variety of decisions. They differ in content, duration and development, focus and scale of impact, level of acceptance, information security, etc. With the help of classification, it is possible to distinguish classes of decisions that require a different approach to the process and methods of their adoption, which are not the same in terms of time and other resources (Table 1).

Table 1

Classification of decisions made in the organization

Programmable solutions are solutions to recurring and well-defined problems. As a rule, these are standard tasks that repeatedly arise in the organization, about which there is sufficiently reliable and reliable information, as well as ready-made, developed and previously successfully applied rules and procedures. The procedure establishes the order, sequence of actions, rights, obligations of the participants in the interaction in the decision-making process. As an example, we can cite the task of placing a periodic order for inventory for one of the workshops of an enterprise. For the development and optimization of programmable solutions, formalized methods are used that have a clear algorithm for solving the problem in the form of economic and mathematical models, methods for analyzing and calculating data, computer programs that provide high accuracy in the quantitative assessment of the options being developed.

Non-programmable solutions involve new, complex, never-before-seen, unconventional, unforeseen problems that cannot be accurately quantified. As a rule, they are difficult to define and structure, they are characterized by an unclear formulation of the goal, inaccuracy and uncertainty of information, and the absence of clear rules and decision procedures. When developing non-programmable solutions, heuristic methods are used. They are characterized by the fact that the development of alternative solutions is not based on exact calculations, but on logic, judgments and inferences. At the same time, professional knowledge, a high level of qualification, and the creative abilities of specialists in various fields are used. Non-programmed decisions include decisions related to setting goals and formulating an organization’s development strategy, changing its structure, forecasting work in new markets, etc. The number of such decisions increases as the scale and complexity of the organization grows, the dynamism and uncertainty of its external environment increase .

Intuitive decisions are choices made only on the basis of a feeling of being right. The decision maker does not weigh the pros and cons for each alternative, he does not evaluate the situation, but relies on insight, feeling. Intuition includes hunches, imaginations, insights, or thoughts that often spontaneously manifest themselves in consciously grasping a problem and in subsequent decision making. An intuitive approach can work well when analyzing urgent problems in a situation with difficult to define goals, inaccurate information and the inability to quantify.

Judgmental decisions are choices based on knowledge and experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before and predicts the outcome of an alternative choice. Here there is a danger of missing out on a new alternative, as the leader is guided by the old experience of solving similar problems.

Rational decisions do not depend on past experience. The process of their adoption involves the choice of such an alternative that will bring maximum benefit to the organization. The search for the best solution is underway. The rational decision-making procedure includes seven successive steps:

1) problem definition;

2) formulation of restrictions and criteria for decision-making;

3) identification of alternatives;

4) evaluation of alternatives;

5) choice of alternative;

6) implementation of the solution;

7) feedback.

3. Factors influencing the decision-making process

Problem definition. A necessary condition for making a decision is the problem itself: if there were no problems, there would be no need for solutions. Problems are usually of three types: favorable, crisis and ordinary.

Crisis and routine are clear issues that should be considered by managers.

Favorable ones, on the other hand, are usually veiled, and the manager must discover them.

Since most crisis and routine problems by their nature require immediate attention, a manager can spend a lot of time looking at them and not have time to deal with important new favorable issues.

Many well-managed organizations attempt to move away from crisis and routine issues and focus on longer-term issues by defining forward-looking goals, strategies, and planning programs.

The first phase of identifying a problem is recognizing the symptoms of failures or opportunities. These symptoms are:

1) low profit, sales, labor productivity, product quality;

2) high costs of production and circulation;

3) numerous conflicts in the organization, high staff turnover, low motivation and dedication of the staff. The second phase of diagnosing a problem is identifying the causes of problems.

The next step is to rank the problem among other problems. The ranking can be based on the following factors:

1) impact on the organization;

2) urgency of the problem and time constraints;

3) support of the problem from the outside in favor of its solution;

4) the life cycle of the problem.

Formulation of constraints and decision criteria.

At this stage, resources for the implementation of the solution are taken into account. They must be realistic. Limiters can be time limits for the development and solution of the problem, the amount of funds allocated for this, the parameters of the effectiveness of achieving goals. In addition to constraints, the manager also defines the standards by which alternative choices must be evaluated. These are decision criteria. They have different content and form. The criteria are most fully developed for programmable solutions, where the use of methods of quantitative analysis and electronic data processing are possible.

The application of economic and mathematical methods to solving managerial problems makes it possible to use the target function as a selection criterion, which usually needs to be maximized or minimized; Therefore, such a choice is called an optimization one. Examples of optimization criteria are: maximization of profit, income, productivity, efficiency; minimization of costs, losses from marriage or downtime, etc. The optimal solution is selected based on a comparison of the quantitative value of the objective function for all possible options; the best solution is the one that provides the most desirable value of the target criterion. An example of such solutions is the optimization of equipment loading, inventory, material cutting, etc.

To evaluate options for semi-structured solutions, a system of weighted criteria is used. The possibilities of this approach to choosing the best option can be shown by a simple example. Suppose an organization is faced with the problem of choosing a supplier of the necessary materials. Several such firms were found, and all of them, during preliminary negotiations, agreed to cooperate with this organization. However, they offer different conditions regarding deliveries, prices, discounts, etc. You need to determine the most suitable supplier. To do this, a comparative analysis of the proposed options is carried out with a focus on the most significant criteria for the consumer organization. Suppose that in this case the following criteria are chosen as such criteria:

1) price per unit of supplied material;

2) the size of the minimum supply;

3) conditions for granting discounts and benefits;

4) the quality of the material;

5) geographical location of the supplier company;

6) the status of the latter.

In terms of their importance for the organization, they are not the same, so they must be “weighed” relative to the main criterion. Let the price of the supplied material be defined as such, and it is given the maximum numerical rating, for example, 10. The rest are evaluated by comparison with the highest rating (Table 2), as a result of which they are assigned the weights indicated in the table.

table 2

Criteria weighting

In particular, attention should be paid to the fact that the organization attaches the same importance to the geographical location of the supplier firm as to the price of the supplied material. This is due to high transport tariffs for freight transportation. The table also shows that the organization in question is not very concerned about the minimum size of the supply and does not attach much importance to the status of the supplier, although it still takes it into account in the selection. According to the selected and weighted criteria, all possible solutions are evaluated. Conventionally, four supplier firms are considered, which are designated as A, B, C, and D. In fact, there may be much more of them, but they are either unknown or not taken into account (for one reason or another). At this stage, a comparative assessment of each firm is made for each criterion (the result is presented in Table 3); the maximum score is 10. If we sum up all the scores received by firms for all criteria, then firm A will receive a sum of 40, B - 38, C - 34 and firm D - 37.

However, it is too early to make a final decision. It is necessary to take into account the different "weight category" of each criterion, and only after that it is possible to determine the firm that will be given preference. The results of this stage are presented in table 4, and a somewhat unexpected conclusion follows from them: the highest total scores with a significant lead are received by firm G, which at the previous stage occupied the penultimate place.

Table 3

Weighting options by selection criteria

Table 4

Total weighting of options by selection criteria

The use of this approach is based on the assumption that it is possible to determine all the criteria and solutions, that the priorities are known and that they, like the weights given to them, are of a constant nature. Under these conditions, the option with the highest score is chosen.

Identification of alternatives. Theoretically, it is necessary to identify all possible solutions to the problem, but in practice, the manager rarely has the knowledge and time to do this. Therefore, the number of alternatives for further consideration is limited to a few options that are considered good enough to improve the problem situation. Often new, unique problems arise. Then the choice of alternatives becomes a complex creative process.

There are many methods of creative search for alternatives, the main purpose of which is to generate ideas: brainstorming, group analysis of the situation, cause-and-effect diagram, morphological analysis, electronic brainstorming, etc. The task of the leader is to create a creative atmosphere for finding alternatives .

The conditions for creating such an atmosphere can be:

1) motivation in the search;

2) providing all the necessary information to fully understand the problem;

3) free discussion and admission of any ideas to solve the problem, exclusion of criticism of proposals;

4) allocating time for nurturing ideas.

Evaluation of alternatives. At this stage, the advantages and disadvantages of the identified options for solving the problem are determined. To compare alternatives, the criteria established in the second stage are used. If a solution does not meet the criteria, it is not considered further. An important point in the assessment is to determine the likelihood of each alternative.

Choosing an alternative or making a decision. The best solution will be the one that is most consistent with the firm's goals and values while using the least amount of resources.

If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a decision.

However, if the problem is new, complex, and you have to take into account many probabilistic factors or subjective information, it may turn out that no choice will be the best.

In this case, you can rely on intuition and experience. You can also resort to experimentation and the use of ready-made decision models for especially difficult situations.

Solution implementation. This stage allows you to determine the correctness, optimality of the decision. To implement the decision, it must be brought to the performers. They should receive clear information about who, where, when and by what means should carry out actions consistent with this decision.

It is necessary to develop a plan for its implementation, which provides for a system of measures to ensure the successful achievement of the goals.

One of the planning mechanisms at this stage can be the so-called decision tree, which allows, by decomposition of the selected option, to present a set of goals and objectives to be achieved and solved. A hypothetical example is this.

Suppose, in the process of solving the problem of determining the organization's strategy for the future, the main strategic directions were chosen to ensure the achievement of the goal set by the management for this period: to survive in severe crisis conditions; maintain and strengthen its position in the market of competitive products; create the prerequisites for further intervention in the markets, as well as for maximizing and building the capacity of the organization. These directions are formulated as follows:

1) to concentrate efforts on the production of competitive products A, B, C, using both domestic and foreign markets for its sales;

2) develop and implement a program of cooperation with other enterprises and organizations directly or indirectly related to the production of products A, B, C, in order to attract equity investments;

3) change the management system of the organization in order to de-bureaucratize it, create the most favorable conditions for the development of creativity and the use of a team work structure.

Feedback. It is carried out in the form of monitoring the implementation of the decision based on information about the progress of its implementation, measurement, evaluation and comparison of actual results with planned ones.

Control can reveal not only deviations from the planned action plan, but also the shortcomings of the solution itself, which require timely elimination.

To reduce such shortcomings, the control function should be carried out at all stages of the decision-making process.

This may make it necessary to repeat the procedures of the previous steps. Decision making becomes an ongoing process.

It does not end with the decision-making stage, the choice of a single option. Feedback provides managers with information that can initiate a new decision cycle.

4. Group decision making

In most organizations, many decisions are made in teams, groups. Managers often face situations that require discussion in meetings. This is especially true for non-programmable problems, which are new, complex, and involve great uncertainty in the outcome. Solving such problems by one person is rarely accepted on a regular basis.

It requires special knowledge in a number of areas that one person usually does not possess. This requirement, along with the obvious reality that decisions made must be perceived and implemented by multiple parts of the organization, has expanded the application of a collective approach to the decision-making process.

There are many methods of group discussion of the problem and decision making. The main ones are: synectics, nominal group method, Delphi method, peer review method, consent planning, script writing. Let's take a closer look at synectics.

Synectics is a combination of different elements that do not correspond to each other. As a method, it involves the identification of opposite sides or trends in the object under consideration. Great importance is attached to the formulation of the problem. It is believed that premature formulation may hinder the search for original solutions. Therefore, the discussion often begins not with the formulation of the problem, but with the identification of the essence of the problem, the fundamental principles of the functioning of this object or process. This makes it possible then to move from the general range of problems to the study of the specific conditions of a given problem.

Constructive criticism is allowed in the synector attack. The main creative techniques used in synectics are various types of analogies: direct, personal, symbolic and fantastic.

In a direct analogy, the problem or object under consideration is compared with similar problems or objects from another field (biology, engineering, medicine, etc.). For example, if the problem of adaptation is being solved, then it is easy to draw a parallel with a chameleon that changes color, etc. With a personal analogy, the participants in the “synector attack” try to get used to the problem or object, merge with them together, look at them from the inside in order to to better understand the conditions and mechanism of action.

With a symbolic analogy, a concise semantic formulation is selected in the form of a brief definition that reflects the essence of the problem under consideration. For example, a flame is visible warmth, strength is a forced integrity, etc. In a fantasy analogy, the developer introduces into the problem being solved some fantastic creatures or objects (for example, Aladdin's magic wand or magic lamp) that could do what is required according to the conditions of the task. Thus, with the help of analogies, developers try, when solving a complex extraordinary task, to see what is already known in the unknown, which allows using familiar methods. If an ordinary problem is solved, then the analogy allows you to avoid stereotyped thinking and look at the problem from a new, unexpected side and find an original solution.

Synectics is a more developed and complex way of creative group activity, the purpose of which is to formulate a solution. The synectic group is formed from researchers trained in creative work methods who are highly qualified specialists from different professions or different disciplines.

The age of the participants does not matter, but experience has shown that the most suitable "synectors" are people aged 25-40 years. It is believed that before the age of 25 a person does not have enough experience, and after 40 years he is no longer so receptive to new ideas.

Members of the synectic group should be distinguished by creative maturity, rich imagination and fantasy, independence and impartiality of opinion, the ability to take risks, the ability to abstract from habitual judgments, think outside the box and highlight the essence of the phenomenon, be relaxed and free in their thoughts, favorably perceive other people's ideas, be able to stop development found ideas in order to look for new ones, be focused and believe in the possibility of solving the problem. As experience shows, the formation of a synectic group can take a whole year. It is created on an ongoing basis, unlike groups organized for a short period, to solve any complex problems that arise in the organization.

She works full time for the time it takes to resolve a problem. The group is led by an experienced specialist who knows well the techniques of synectics. The main task of the synectic group is to use the experience and knowledge from different areas that the team members have to search for ideas and develop possible solutions.