The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are meeting in Cairo today to discuss measures to resolve the Qatari crisis. Experts believe that it is possible that additional economic sanctions may be imposed against Doha.
"At the invitation of Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri, a Quartet of Foreign Ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain will meet in Cairo on Wednesday, July 5 to review developments in relations with Qatar," the foreign policy statement said. departments of the Land of the Pyramids. It is possible that, as an additional measure, Cairo will file a lawsuit with international courts in order to increase pressure on the Arab country.
In the Western expert community, they admit that additional economic measures will be introduced against the emirate. “There may be more sanctions against Qatar, Qatari citizens or Qatari businesses,” David Roberts, an associate professor at King's College London and author of Qatar: Defending the City-State's Global Ambitions, told NG. “It is possible that Qatar will be excluded from the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.” However, the expert explained that most countries in the region are interested in resolving the diplomatic crisis that has arisen in relations between Qatar and other states of the region.
“Cairo's claims to Doha are a mirror image of those of the Persian Gulf countries, since now Cairo is a satellite that rarely demonstrates an independent foreign policy,” Yury Barmin, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, told NG. - The main problem for him is not relations with Iran, but the support of the Islamists - the Muslim Brotherhood (an organization banned in Russia. - NG) from Qatar. This is the main point that concerns al-Sissi. Mohammed Morsi, who came to power in Egypt after the Arab Spring, was sponsored by Qatar.” According to the expert, political changes in Egypt occurred precisely because a new emir came to power in Qatar.
“The situation is moving towards escalation,” said Barmin, commenting on the situation around Qatar. – The question is, to what escalation is it going. Military escalation is unlikely. The presence of the American and Turkish military on the territory of Qatar is a kind of guarantee. Most likely there will be economic sanctions that will force Qatar to tighten their belts. For example, in the UK, banks stopped servicing the Qatari rial. This, I think, of course, happened under pressure from the countries of the Persian Gulf. I believe that such sanctions will continue to be imposed against Qatar. I don't see how Qatar could accept the conditions put forward by the Persian Gulf countries. Naturally, the Arab countries will not agree to soften these conditions.”
According to the analyst, the allegations against Qatar regarding the sponsorship of terrorist organizations are not so easily supported by evidence. “The most obvious is a complete severance of relations with Iran, or at least, as they now say in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, this is commercial relations with Iran at a level that would be acceptable for Sunni monarchies,” Barmin said, commenting on the requirements of the Persian Gulf countries. . “Iran is the main thing now.”
The reason for the aggravation of the diplomatic crisis around Qatar was Syria, the expert believes. “Now everything has largely happened because of Syria, when Qatar went into direct negotiations with Iran to evacuate Shiites and Sunnis,” Barmin said. - It was a spit in the direction of Saudi Arabia, because Qatar went around the common foreign policy line towards Iran. On the other hand, Trump's visit to Riyadh probably played a role in this. Iran was designated as the main external enemy. And Qatar does not currently see Iran as its main external enemy. After all, Qatar and Iran have the same gas field, so they must interact with each other. The visit of the American president was the main trigger. Through this, they tried to solve many other issues, because the crown prince of Abu Dhabi has not gotten along with the Al Thani family for a long time.
On the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Libya accuse Doha of supporting terrorist organizations and interfering in the internal affairs of states. Qatar denies the accusations and says it is being campaigned against.
“It is now that Doha has become the greatest threat to the plans of Riyadh”
Experts note that the crisis arose after the visit of Donald Trump to Riyadh, where he took part in the summit.
During his speech, Trump continued his anti-Iranian rhetoric, calling on the countries of the region to rally against Tehran, which, according to the American leader, provides support to terrorists. One of the deterrent mechanisms should be the "Arab NATO" project, which is actively supported by Saudi Arabia.
Iranian whirlpool
Qatar has been drawn into the whirlpool of anti-Iranian policy and statements. One of the reasons for the diplomatic scandal was rumors about Doha's desire to expand cooperation with Tehran.
On May 24, the Qatar News agency published a statement by the emir, in which he allegedly called on the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt to reconsider their position on Iran, with which they should not aggravate relations. Qatar Foreign Ministry information, claiming that the site was hacked, and expressed bewilderment regarding the position " some media and TV channels that continued to publish and comment on false statements».
On June 1, the Tunisian edition of Essada, analyzing the incident, also noted that despite the official denial by the Qatari authorities and the Qatar News agency , “Saudi Arabian, UAE and Egyptian channels continued to analyze the fake statement as if it were real. Moreover, from the first minutes of his appearance, they began to upload confirmation videos, which take a long time to prepare, as if they were all made in advance “at night” by one of the Qatari officials.”
Qatar's relationship with Iran is more complex than that of Saudi Arabia. If for Riyadh Tehran is a clear geopolitical adversary from the religious and ideological component to economic and political issues in the region, then Doha, despite the existing contradictions, is at the same time “tied” with Iran by gas interests.
We are talking about the Qatari oil and gas field North, which borders on the Iranian "South Pars".
A number of experts note that Doha and Tehran were negotiating the joint development of the South Pars field. In particular, Qatar offered Iran to produce in the Iranian part of this field, but send gas for liquefaction to its plants.
Gas interests, and a pragmatic desire to maintain an anti-Riyadh force in the region, could push Doha towards a more restrained policy towards Iran. But it is unlikely that the Qatari emir would clumsily and publicly call for a revision of the anti-Iranian agenda. He would continue to operate within the framework of behind-the-scenes diplomacy.
Why was it necessary to launch a massive information attack against Qatar? And why now?
Qatar vs alliance?
The attempt to discredit Qatar at the international level is directly related to the interests of Saudi Arabia. It is now that Doha has become the greatest threat to Riyadh's plans.
These countries have long-standing contradictions.
The conflict came to a head during the "Arab Spring", during which Qatar and Saudi Arabia began to find out "who is the boss" using the political instability of other countries.
The turning point was the crisis in Egypt, when Qatar provided support to the Muslim Brotherhood, which greatly displeased not only Saudi Arabia, but also the UAE and Bahrain, precisely those countries that today form the core of the anti-Qatari coalition.
On the other hand, the political grievances of three years ago do not explain the planned information attack and the sudden desire to compromise Doha in the eyes of world players, primarily the United States, “hanging” on him accusations of financing Al-Qaeda and IS*.
But plans to create an "Arab NATO" may be the reason.
Saudi Arabia has long been promoting such a project, as it will allow it to consolidate its dominant position in the region. But there were two problems.
The first is the Obama administration, which, fearing the consequences, did not provide support, and on its own the Saudis are not able to unite the countries of the region under the banner of their interests. Trump resolved this issue by identifying a common enemy in Iran and assigning Riyadh a key role in the new alliance.
“New tactical alliances may be formed, one of which is Qatar-Turkey”
The second problem is Qatar, which does not benefit from the strengthening of its rival (Doha did not forget how in 2010 Saudi Arabia tried to arrange a whirlpool of revolution for them by supporting the protesters) and which has the opportunity to stand in the way of the formation of a pro-Saudi bloc: by influencing potential participants , for example, on Turkey, and conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations, including with Tehran.
Perhaps that is why the Saudis decided to go ahead of the curve and, having teamed up with regional allies, dealt an image blow to Qatar.
Moreover, the main goal of the attack is to discredit Doha in the eyes of Washington in order to deprive the opponent of the main insurance - the American military base.
Türkiye for Qatar
A logical consequence was the reciprocal discharge of compromising evidence from Qatar.
Interestingly, Doha is in no hurry to accuse Saudi Arabia of political unscrupulousness and inflicts pinpoint strikes on other participants.
In particular, the Qatari media disseminated compromising information on the UAE Ambassador to the United States, Yousef al-Otaiba, who was involved in the failed coup attempt in Turkey in 2016. Also, information came to the surface about the attempts of the UAE to replace Saudi Arabia as the main regional ally of the United States.
It is not difficult to guess why exactly this compromising evidence was leaked - Qatar is trying to bring discord into the coalition formed against it and, most importantly, is playing on Ankara's fears, and this is almost a win-win option.
Firstly, Erdogan has great concerns about Washington's plans for the Syrian crisis, including “ch. for this reason, Erdogan is not ready to lose his alternative allied foothold in the person of Tehran.
In addition, the Turkish leader continues to search for external players involved in the coup attempt, and in this regard, the leaked compromising evidence on the UAE came in handy.
And if we add to this that Turkey and Qatar have similar views on the same “Muslim Brotherhood” and there is a Turkish military base in Qatar, then we can say that Doha has found one ally in the current confrontation.
The fight against compromising evidence
It is obvious that if the isolation continues, Qatar will most likely continue the “battle of compromising evidence” and many unpleasant things from the secret diplomacy of the Persian Gulf monarchies will be brought to the judgment of the international community.
And it is quite possible that such a reaction from Qatar was expected in Washington and Moscow, therefore, they distanced themselves as much as possible from the outbreak of the conflict. But another question is interesting here - what is the probability that the White House and the Kremlin planned such a development of events?Could Trump deliberately play on the ambitions of the Saudis and push them into direct conflict with Qatar? Could Moscow have given tacit consent to the Riyadh attack against Doha, because, most likely, during a visit to Russia on May 30, Saudi Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman mentioned his intentions.
Here one can only guess.
So far, one thing is not in doubt - if Qatar continues to “leak” on its neighbors, the beneficiaries of such a battle of compromising information will primarily be external players, and the already unstable situation in the Middle East may undergo further changes.
New tactical alliances may be formed, one of which is Qatar-Türkiye. Here, by the way, it is important to note that the Turkish leader has already discussed the situation around Qatar with the Russian president. And Iran, according to media reports, announced its readiness to supply Qatar with food.
Given the way the Qatar conflict has begun to turn, it is possible that the Trump administration will have to negotiate with Saudi partners, since the contours of the potential balance of power are unlikely to suit Washington.
* An organization in respect of which a court has made a final decision to liquidate or ban activities on the grounds provided for by the Federal Law "On countering extremist activity"
The leading countries of the Persian Gulf blockade Qatar and impose economic sanctions against it, which could undermine stability in the entire Middle East
The number of countries that have severed diplomatic relations with Qatar has increased to seven. These are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, as well as Yemen, the Maldives and Mauritius.
One of the several Libyan governments also joined - the one located in the city of Tobruk. But since it is not recognized by the UN, from the point of view of international law, it is impossible to include Libya among the countries that have joined the blockade.
In general, these are states that follow in the wake of the Saudis. It is Riyadh that is the main catalyst for the conflict.
Saudi Arabia Officially Says It Punishes Qatar for Sponsoring Terrorism. But few people believe this, because Saudi sheikhs also finance terrorist groups.
In fact, the crisis has been brewing for a long time. In fact, now we are seeing a volcanic eruption that has matured for several years.
What caused the crisis
Officially, the countries that have joined the blockade say that this is Qatar's punishment for supporting the terrorists of al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups. And the real reason is the competition between Saudi Arabia and Qatar for influence in the region. It lasts not the first and not even the second year.
The two countries have powerful financial resources. Saudi Arabia is the world's leading oil supplier. And Qatar is the main supplier of liquefied gas. And despite its tiny size, the country, like Bloomberg, has the world's highest per capita income ($129,700 a year).
The spark that ignited the flame is said to be the statement of the ruler of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, published by the state news agency of the country. During the parade, he allegedly criticized Saudi Arabia and the UAE for attacks on Iran.
The Qatari authorities quickly deleted these statements and said that in fact the emir did not say anything and there was no speech at all, and all this is the result of a hacker attack. Subsequently, the media in Saudi Arabia and the UAE also raised a wave of criticism against the sheikh for his call to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
The Financial Times says the "straw that broke the camel's neck" was the billion dollar ransom., which Qatar paid to Iranian intelligence services, a Shiite group controlled by it and militants in Syria from the Tahrir Ash-Shyam group, which is considered close to al-Qaeda.
For this gigantic sum, a member of the royal family of Qatar and several dozen military personnel were released. They were captured in December 2015 while falconry in southern Iraq. Whether they really hunted there or did something else is unknown.
Ransom by ransom, but Qatar indeed, unlike the Saudis, tried to maintain more friendly relations with Iran. This, in particular, resulted in a number of joint economic projects, in particular, in the gas sector.
What will be the consequences of the crisis
Breaking diplomatic relations with Qatar is the least painful part. This already happened in 2014 - then for nine months Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed diplomatic relations with Doha because of the events in Egypt.
Actually, the Arab Spring was one of the most remarkable illustrations of the competition between Saudi Arabia and Qatar for influence on processes, in particular, in the Arab world.
Now the situation is much more serious. Qatar's only land border is with Saudi Arabia, and about 80% of its imports went through it. The blockade blocked it. Terrified, the Qataris are buying food en masse.
Citizens of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain were ordered to leave the territory of Qatar. Air traffic was interrupted and sanctions were imposed on a number of companies and banks.
In Riyadh, the office of the leading information mouthpiece of Qatar, the Al Jazeera TV channel, was closed. In Egypt, its workers have been mercilessly persecuted and imprisoned for several years. There were rumors that Doha was even ready to close the channel in exchange for the lifting of the blockade and sanctions.
However, as orientalist Ilya Kusa told the Espresso website, this is unlikely to happen. "No one wants to lose such a resource. Most likely, their policy will simply be adjusted to the policy and needs of the Saudis," the expert believes.
According to him, Al Jazeera today is a powerful propaganda tool with a huge audience, which the Sunni oil monarchies successfully use to fight Iran.
Scenarios for further events
The mediators are trying to reconcile Doha and Riyadh. They were Kuwait and Oman. These two countries did not support the sanctions and the blockade and in general traditionally act as peacekeepers-mediators during local crises.
On Tuesday morning it became known that Qatar has so far postponed retaliatory actions that could deepen the crisis. In particular, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad at-Thani has not yet begun to pronounce his appeal to the people.
Ilya Kusa believes that now there is every chance that the crisis will be resolved peacefully. "Everyone is interested not in a long-term crisis, but in a quick solution, and that was the whole point of the blockade of Saudi Arabia - to put pressure on Qatar in order to achieve loyalty and concessions," he explained.
If a compromise cannot be reached, then a quiet coup is quite possible - the emir will be replaced by a member of the royal family more loyal to the Saudis. Five years ago, the father of the current emir voluntarily ceded power to his fourth son amid another aggravation of relations with the Saudis.
American factor
Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, according to oriental experts, reinforced the Saudis' confidence regarding the blockade of Qatar. The previous administration of the White House in the fight against the "Islamic State" relied on the entire Arab coalition as a whole, without singling out any of its members separately.
And now Trump made a visit to Saudi Arabia. He avoided contact with representatives of Qatar. Thus, he could well make it clear that the US does not like Doha's flirting with Tehran.
Interestingly, the United States in the current situation will be the guarantor that the crisis will not turn into open war. In 2003, Saudi Arabia actually removed the American air base from its territory.
Qatar has become a new location. There are currently 10,000 US troops stationed there. The headquarters of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces in the Middle East is also located there.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt have extended the deadline for the implementation of the ultimatum presented to Qatar by 48 hours. The Qatari Foreign Ministry said that Doha would not comply with all the demands of an impossible ultimatum.
We are accustomed to perceive the phrases "additional sanctions" and "increased isolation" in politics in relation to Russia - simply because they are often pronounced in the West. Now Qatar may be subject to expanded sanctions. Eastern sanctions, sanctions from their neighbors. But, of course, not without the approval and initiative of the overseas partner.
On June 5, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Doha and stopped communication with Qatar. Qatar was accused of "supporting terrorism". Later, some other countries joined the resolution of the four states: Mauritius, Comoros, Mauritania and partially Libya (Haftar government) and Yemen (Hadi government). Jordan limited itself to lowering the level of diplomatic representation.
Through Kuwait, which successfully played the role of an intermediary, Qatar's opponents handed over to it a list of demands necessary to lift the lockdown and presented in the form of an ultimatum. The ultimatum expired on the evening of July 2, but was then extended by two days.
On July 5, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE will meet in Cairo to discuss a plan of action against the recalcitrant neighbor.
If Doha does not comply with the ultimatum demands of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, it is likely to be subject to extended sanctions. Among the demands: the termination of broadcasting of the Al Jazeera TV channel, the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran, the closure of the Turkish military base and the rejection of defense cooperation with Turkey.
According to the head of the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, unacceptable demands in the form of an ultimatum were presented to the state with the expectation that they would be rejected. “The list of demands is made in such a way that it will be rejected. It is not intended to be accepted or negotiated,” said Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani.
The head of the Foreign Ministry said that the country agreed to negotiations, but their conditions should be acceptable. Qatar will not shut down Al-Jazeera and refuse to cooperate with Turkey. Doha also does not intend to part with Tehran. The latter is completely unthinkable for Qatar, since Qatar shares a gas field with Iran in the Persian Gulf.
Thus, the conflict in early July, most likely, will not end, but, on the contrary, will escalate.
In an acute conflict with neighboring countries, Qatar was supported by Turkey, including military support. Since the beginning of the political crisis, the Turkish air base has already been “replenished” twice with additional forces and military equipment.
Earlier, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt notified the World Trade Organization that they did not violate its requirements in any way during the blockade of Qatar. This was reported with reference to the news agency WAM.
As the four states indicated, the severing of relations with Qatar is “based on their sovereign right” and undertaken to protect national security. The countries emphasized in a joint statement that the resolutions were adopted in accordance with the rules of the WTO, which allows member states to act against another state if it poses a threat to their security and stability.
According to Gumer Isaev, head of the St. Petersburg Center for the Study of the Contemporary Middle East, the goal of the four players delaying the implementation of the ultimatum is to achieve at least some concessions from Qatar.
“First of all, those countries that have announced an ultimatum are aware that a number of their demands violate the sovereignty of Qatar,” the expert told the TV channel. “Thus, these demands were for psychological pressure.” Qatar is given time to think, assuming that he will make concessions.
“Achieving this delay is an extremely important success in resolving the crisis around Qatar,” Konstantin Kosach, professor at the Department of Contemporary Orientalism at the Faculty of Political Science and Law of the Russian State University for the Humanities, told the TV channel. “Most likely, this is evidence that the crisis will continue to descend and will not lead to an escalation.”
According to the expert, the ultimatum was extended after long consultations mediated by Kuwait. One of the main reasons for the delay is the lack of common ground within the ranks of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Two members of this organization, Kuwait and Oman, refused to join the blockade.
The current blockade of Qatar is expressed in the freezing of the supply of goods from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, Türkiye and Iran undertook to replenish the supply of food and consumer goods.
The other side of the blockade is financial. Leading banks in the Gulf states stopped accepting Qatari rials, and then currency operators around the world, working with banks in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also refused Qatari money. The rial against the dollar fell to a twelve-year low.
According to Konstantin Kosach, Qatar managed to "internationalize the crisis": the United States, Russia, and the European Union joined in its resolution. This is not to mention how Iran and Turkey have shown themselves to be assisting Qatar. However, the United States played a special role: they are not interested in a conflict between their two allies in the Middle East. “Countries that are in this conflict situation,” the expert noted, “turn all their attention to Washington. It is there that the Saudi and Qatari foreign ministers are located. They expected a decisive word. Most likely, a decisive word has been said, and, most likely, this delay is a direct result of pressure on both sides exerted by the United States.
What can the political confrontation between states that have "befriended" against Qatar lead to?
"RT" gives several options.
1. Qatar's consent to the terms of the ultimatum: in fact, the surrender of the country and its entry into the Saudi bloc as a "junior partner". But the Qatari authorities, as noted above, rejected full agreement with the ultimatum.
2. The invasion of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Qatar. However, the American base El Udeid is located in Qatar, and the deployment of American bases is seen as a guarantee of security in the region. The Turkish military is also in Qatar, although there are not many of them.
3. Exclusion of Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council. K. Kosach, however, believes that the “single home of the Gulf” will not be destroyed.
4. Strengthening sanctions against Qatar. True, the current sanctions have not brought tangible results. On the other hand, sanctions can be directed against countries that maintain economic ties with Qatar.
The only real possibility to resolve the crisis is a compromise, hence the delay. “Both sides, both Qatar and its antagonists, are faced with the need to resolve the problem through negotiations, without resorting to any violent measures,” said K. Kosach. - I think that Qatar will eventually accept some of these demands. In particular, it will refuse to maintain interaction with the Muslim Brotherhood [banned in the Russian Federation] and other organizations that other countries of the cooperation council consider as terrorist. Thus, the incident will be over."
Dmitry Nersesov, a site observer, believes that new sanctions are likely to be introduced against Qatar: the restrictions will affect foreign companies operating in the Persian Gulf.
The observer also notes that the most logical goal of the four enemies of Qatar seems to be a coup d'etat: its result would be the removal of the ruling al-Thani family from power or the transfer of the throne to the most "compliant" member of this family. If such a scenario (including with a possible intervention in the country) is implemented, the likelihood of the formation of a new center of power in the Arab world will increase. There is reason to believe that the Americans spoke about such an "Arab NATO" on the eve of Trump's visit to the region, recalls Nersesov. Such a grouping "will be focused on confronting Iran and peace with Israel."
It is interesting to add how the United States behaves in this situation. Analysts attribute the Qatari crisis to the contradictions between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis, after the visit of Trump, who danced in Riyadh, concluded a major arms deal and enlisted the support of Washington. Now Washington is pretending to be a peacemaker, allegedly trying to resolve the crisis with Qatar and smooth out the sharp edges of the ultimatum. Trump will have the final say. In any case, after uniting several major regional players against Qatar, which has Iran at its throat, Qatar will no longer play the prominent role in the Middle East that it played before.
Against Iran, the Qatari partner, the Saudis with their allies, the UAE, and the United States are also set. In addition, the United States seriously intends to export liquefied gas to Europe, and they do not need a competitor in the form of Qatar there. Just like the Russian Gazprom. Obviously, a decision has been made to infringe on Doha in every possible way. This geopolitical conflict will not end soon.
Gas Monarchy Faces Blockade by Neighbors
Several Arab countries at once - among them Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates - made statements on Monday about the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar. The small but highly ambitious gas monarchy has been accused of supporting terrorist organizations and fueling regional conflicts. What is behind these events and what will be their consequences?
The countries that opposed Qatar promised not only to expel Qatari diplomats, but also to stop all land, air and sea communication with this emirate. The monarchy is also excluded from the Saudi-led coalition participating in the military intervention in Yemen (this country, by the way, also broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar).
Official Doha has already reacted to the decision of those Arab states to suspend relations with Qatar, calling it unjustified and violating Qatari sovereignty. The monarchy itself has been called the victim of a "deceitful campaign" designed to destabilize the region.
Actively playing in the regional arena (and far beyond the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula), Qatar has long been an annoyance to many Arab countries. In particular, its support for the Muslim Brotherhood group (the organization has been recognized as a terrorist organization, its activities are banned in Russia) and Sunni Islamist groups associated with it. At the same time, the Qataris are blamed for supporting pro-Iranian forces in the region. Doha has repeatedly denied accusations of sponsoring extremist groups - but few have any doubts about the huge role that this emirate has played in helping various groups of the Syrian armed opposition - including such as the terrorist al-Nusra Front banned in Russia.
In the recent past, Qatar itself has repeatedly made loud foreign policy demarches. He broke off diplomatic relations with Israel, then with Iran. But, ironically, one of the reasons for the current diplomatic aggravation in the Gulf region was the scandalous story with the appearance in late May of comments from the Qatari monarch about the desirability of improving relations with Iran. (And Tehran, as you know, is a real bone in the throat for Saudi Arabia). In Qatar, this information was called "fake" and some hackers who hacked into the website of the state news agency are blamed for everything. Be that as it may, the Arab neighbors responded by blocking Qatari-based media, including the famous Al Jazeera satellite network, which often criticizes the Saudi and Egyptian authorities.
Although statements by Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo and Manama to end relations with Qatar were made separately, there is a distinct sense of their coherence.
“In reality, what is happening is a reaction, which is not the first, to the political behavior of Qatar, due to the fact that this country seeks to develop relations with Iran,” said Grigory KOSACH, Doctor of Historical Sciences, professor at the Russian State Humanitarian University. - Which, on the one hand, contradicts the point of view of other members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. On the other hand, Qatar has long been a place where (as in London to a certain extent) there are representatives of all opposition movements in the Arab world - from the Muslim Brotherhood to Hamas and Syrian Islamist organizations. And this causes extreme dissatisfaction with both the Gulf states and Egypt (since some prominent figures of the Muslim Brotherhood movement are still in Qatar. This is not a new phenomenon: in 2014, this kind of events already occurred (then Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and The UAE recalled its ambassadors from Doha - "MK"). But then it was less painful: only the recall of ambassadors took place. Today, everything is much more serious. This is an attempt to stop Qatar and force it to follow the path followed by other states of the Gulf. The consequences of what is happening can be quite significant: a de facto blockade of Qatar has been introduced, Qatari citizens are prohibited from arriving on the territory of the respective countries (although an exception was made for Qataris going on the Hajj to Mecca).The country is in strict isolation...
At first glance, the enmity between Qatar and Saudi Arabia may seem strange - from an ideological point of view, these two Wahhabi monarchies are on the same side of the barricades on many issues. However, it is not difficult to notice the emerging rivalry between these countries for the role of leader in the Arab-Islamic world.
“When we talk about several Arab countries in this situation, Saudi Arabia is the main one,” says the head of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vasily KUZNETSOV. - Between this country and Qatar, there have long been contradictions (they were in 2011 and later), which sometimes become aggravated. Qatar wants to play an independent role - and often it is presented to the Saudi authorities as destructive for the region. But I would not overestimate what happened, because we have already had examples of breaking diplomatic relations, including between these countries. This is often the case in the region. This is a form of dissatisfaction and pressure.
The piquancy of the situation is added by the fact that Qatar is the location of the base of the Central Command of the US Air Force. But at the same time, it is noteworthy that the current sharp anti-Qatari steps by Riyadh and its allies were taken just a couple of weeks after Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia, during which arms deals worth $110 billion were concluded. that Qatar is gearing up to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
