During its existence, and especially in the 20th century, humanity has managed to destroy about 70 percent of all natural ecological (biological) systems on the planet that are capable of processing human waste, and continues their "successful" destruction. The amount of permissible impact on the biosphere as a whole has now been exceeded by several times. Moreover, a person releases into the environment thousands of tons of substances that have never been contained in it and which are often not amenable or poorly recyclable. All this leads to the fact that biological microorganisms that act as a regulator of the environment are no longer able to perform this function.

According to experts, in 30 - 50 years an irreversible process will begin, which at the turn of the 21st - 22nd centuries will lead to a global environmental catastrophe. A particularly alarming situation has developed on the European continent. Western Europe has basically exhausted its ecological resources and, accordingly, uses others.

It seems that all environmental problems can be attributed, first of all, to two main factors related to each other: climate change and environmental pollution. According to the scale of distribution, environmental problems can be divided into:

– local: pollution of groundwater with toxic substances,

– regional: damage to forests and degradation of lakes as a result of atmospheric deposition of pollutants,

- global: possible climate change due to an increase in the content of carbon dioxide and other gaseous substances in the atmosphere, as well as the depletion of the ozone layer.

This essay will consider the problem of climate change, which belongs to the category of global catastrophes.

1. The nature of climate change

According to experts, the undesirable consequences of such warming are already beginning to affect, leading to unusually warm winters and unprecedented summer heat, an increase in the areas and duration of droughts, and an increase in the number and intensity of devastating climate disasters. If urgent and decisive measures are not taken, then global warming in the near future may lead to the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels and flooding of large areas currently inhabited.

The greenhouse effect for the Earth's biosphere has both negative (rise of the ocean level, degradation of permafrost, coastal ecosystems, etc.) and positive environmental consequences (an increase in the productivity of natural forest formations, an increase in the yield of cultivated plants, etc. In addition to the impact on natural ecosystems, global warming will also lead to significant socio-economic consequences associated with various human activities (energy, agriculture and forestry, health and HR).Among the priority global problems, the rise in the level of the World Ocean and its impact on sea coasts are highlighted.

2. Forecasts of geoecological consequences of global warming of the Earth's climate

2.1. The World Ocean and Coastal Zones in the 21st Century

The expected global warming will cause an increase in the ocean level by 0.5 m by 2050 and by 1-1.5 m by 2100, with a simultaneous increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean up to 2.5 ° C by the end of the 21st century. The main reasons are: melting of continental and mountain glaciers, sea ice, thermal expansion: of the ocean, etc. Currently, sea level rise is about 25 cm per century. All this will ultimately lead to the emergence of complex problems: flooding of coastal plains, intensification of abrasion processes, deterioration of water supply to coastal cities, etc. Moreover, densely populated and developed coastal areas will be the first to be flooded. For example, if the ocean level rises by 1 m, up to 15% of the arable land in Egypt and 14% of the cultivated area in Bangladesh will be flooded, which will cause the resettlement of millions of people.) source of fresh water.

China, which is one of the main suppliers of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, at the same time will feel the negative consequences of warming in the 21st century to the maximum. According to forecasts, even a sea level rise of 0.5 m will lead to the flooding of about 40 thousand km2 of fertile ratins. The most vulnerable will be the vast low alluvial and deltaic plains, the lower reaches of the large rivers Huang He, Yangtze, etc., where the average population density sometimes reaches 800 people/km2. In addition, coast erosion and abrasion are significantly activated, which will lead to serious socio-economic consequences, especially in large cities located on the sea coasts.

This problem will also affect the coastal territories of Russia. Thus, when the ocean level rises by 1 m per century, a strong transformation of sea coasts will occur, in particular, about 40% of the coasts of the European part of Russia will recede by 100 m or more. Residential and industrial buildings will be destroyed in cities such as Nakhodka, St. Petersburg, Arkhangelsk, and others.

Changes can be extremely intense on well-developed shores, for example, the Black and Azov Seas, where natural development will be combined with intense anthropogenic impact, i.e. the removal of sediment from the beaches, the construction of dams and dams on rivers, the creation of bank protection structures, etc. The sandy bay-bars separating the estuaries in the North-Western Black Sea region and the Sea of ​​Azov, as well as the spits of the Northern Azov region, will be destroyed most intensively. In the Kuban Delta and on the Perekop Isthmus, coastal lowlands are expected to be flooded. Coastal slopes composed of unstable loess will begin to recede faster. In the area of ​​Odessa, Mariupol, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in addition to the erosion of the ledges, landslide and landslide processes will intensify, and the destruction of the coast can reach catastrophic proportions.

Ice shores in conditions of rising air and surface water temperatures will be subject to rapid destruction due to the melting of ice and the collapse of overhanging ice blocks. It is possible that the areas of their distribution (Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya), in the waters of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas will increase the number of icebergs. In the case of a small thickness of sheet glaciers, their area under the conditions of climate warming will be significantly reduced, and in the end they may disappear.

The warming of the surface waters of the World Ocean and the Earth's climate as a whole will apparently lead to a restructuring of atmospheric processes and an increase in storm activity in temperate and tropical latitudes.

Global warming poses a significant threat to coral reefs, as when the water temperature rises above a certain limit, coral bleaching will begin, which has now become a fairly common phenomenon in the ocean. Prolonged increases in seawater temperatures can lead to significant degradation of the entire coral reef ecosystem. The destruction of coral atolls, which serve as an ecological habitat for living organisms characterized by high biological diversity, is possible.

However, changes in the coastal zone of the Arctic seas can be not only negative, but also lead to positive socio-economic consequences. Among them is the improvement of the ice situation along the Northern Sea Route, i.e. the possibility of a longer navigation of ships in the Arctic seas throughout the year.

2.2. Permafrost and modern climate

In recent times, climate warming has been especially acutely felt by the inhabitants of the middle zone of our country. Here hot and dry summers and mild winters followed each other. Most scientists associate the rise in surface air temperature with the ever-increasing industrial emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Just a few years ago, a number of prominent climatologists predicted an increase in air temperature in the north of Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. at 10-15°C. With such a sharp warming, a sharp rise in the level of the World Ocean would be inevitable, accompanied by the flooding of vast low-lying areas, the melting of ground and underground ice, the release of gases (especially methane) buried in permafrost and their additional entry into the atmosphere. It is no coincidence that the newspapers of recent years even appeared warning headlines like "Methane bomb in the permafrost." Fortunately for northerners, predictions of significant climate change in high latitudes have not yet come true. But what can be expected in the future?

It is known that the climate is constantly undergoing natural changes. In 1625, Sir Francis Bacon drew attention to the fact that in addition to daily and seasonal variations of meteorological elements, there are long-term cycles. In 1957, J.K. Charlesworth had already identified about 150 such cycles of various durations. In the 70s, A.S. Monin and Yu.A. Shishkov singled out numerous cycles with a period from a billion to tens of years. Short-period fluctuations of meteorological elements are well known: 5-6-year, 9-14-year, etc. All cycles, superimposed on each other, create a complex integral course of change in meteorological elements. In the last two or three decades, fluctuations associated with anthropogenic impact have been increasingly affecting natural climatic cycles.

When studying long-term changes in the modern climate, in order to exclude random variations, meteorological data are averaged over a period of time, most often over ten years. The analysis of such "sliding" values ​​for air temperature was carried out for a number of countries of the Northern Hemisphere - Russia. Canada. USA (Alaska). China. - and he showed that in most continental regions during the period of instrumental meteorological observations, as a whole, a noticeable increase in air temperature is indeed observed (up to 2.4 ° C in Yakutsk in 1830-1495). However, in areas adjacent to the northern seas, there is practically no increase in air temperature over the entire period of meteorological measurements, despite its fluctuations in individual years. This gives reason to believe that in the Arctic and some adjacent regions, due to the proximity of the seas and the weak technogenic impact, modern warming-cooling periods do not go beyond the natural secular climate cyclicity.

Two periods can be distinguished with a clearly pronounced increase in air temperature in the north: from the end of the 19th century. to the 40s of the XX century. (this period is called the "warming of the Arctic") and from the mid-1960s to the present. The latest warming has not yet reached the size of the first. Moreover, in the early 1990s, a noticeable cooling was observed at a number of Arctic meteorological stations. However, subsequent years turned out to be quite warm, which was the reason for maintaining the general trend of climate warming today.

Average annual air temperature in the north of Russia for 1965 - 1995 increased at various meteorological stations from 0.4 to 1.8°С. The trend of these values ​​in the indicated 30 years is 0.02-0.03°C/year under the conditions of the European North. 0.03-0.07 - in the north of Western Siberia and 0.01 - 0.08°С/year - in Yakutia. At the same time, warming is mainly due to an increase in winter air temperature. Will this trend continue or will it change? This question should be of particular interest to us - more than 65% of the vast territory of Russia is occupied by permafrost, which is sensitive to the slightest climate change and therefore is by no means eternal.

Permafrost scientists are able to quantify future changes in permafrost for any period, but only if the initial climatic parameters are reliably known. The catch is that long-range meteorological forecasts are far from perfect, and their reliability and justification leave much to be desired. As a result, different permafrost forecasts are obtained on the basis of conflicting climate forecasts.

There are scenarios of significant and moderate climate warming in the area of ​​permafrost in the 21st century, there is even a variant of cooling. So, according to the calculations of M.K. Gavrilova, by the middle of the coming century, the average annual air temperature in Siberia and the Far East will increase by 4-10 ° C, as a result of which the permafrost will thaw and eventually remain only in the high mountains and on the plains of the north of Eastern Siberia and the Far East. O.A. Anisimov and F.E. Nelson believe that an increase in global air temperature by 2 ° C will lead to complete thawing of frozen rocks on 15 - 20% of the permafrost zone. However, as we have already noted, meteorological data over the past 10-15 years show that extreme scenarios of climate change are not justified, warming is on the way, but at a more modest pace.

Forecasts of moderate climate warming are largely based on the analysis of current trends in meteorological characteristics and their extension into the near future. The longer the series and the greater the number of observation points, the greater the confidence in the correctness of the forecast. If the warming trend continues in the first half of the 21st century, we can expect an increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.9–1.5°C by 2020 and by 2.5–3°C by 2050. Atmospheric precipitation by this time will increase by 5 and 10-15%, respectively.

If the above predicted estimates of moderate (and even more abrupt) climate warming in the northern regions are justified, then by the middle of the new century, the appearance of permafrost in Russia will change significantly.

The negative consequences of climate warming are likely to be exacerbated by a simultaneous increase in precipitation. Although the trends of change are difficult to trace, it has been noted that over the past millennium, during periods of warming, the paths of cyclones from west to east have shifted northward, which caused an increase in precipitation at high latitudes and a decrease in them at low latitudes. "Numerous paleogeographic studies also show that during Pleistocene and Holocene warming at high latitudes was accompanied by an increase in climate humidity.It can be assumed that in most of Russia, the expected warming of the XXI century will also be accompanied by an increase in precipitation.This general assumption is confirmed by the results of the analysis of modern trends in meteorological characteristics, which indicate 10-15- percentage increase in precipitation by 2050

With global warming, there will be an increase in evaporation from the surface of the ocean waters and an increase in climate humidity associated with it. As a result of the combined action of these two factors, it is possible to expect a significant increase in river flow, by about 10%, especially in Europe and Africa. In our country, an increase in precipitation is possible in arid areas (Kalmykia, the Lower Volga region). At the same time, due to the increase in evaporation, desertification will occur in the arid zones of the Mediterranean.

An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere can increase the intensity of the photosynthesis process and, therefore, will increase the productivity of both natural forest formations (Australian rainforests and eucalyptus forests) and cultivated plants. For example, in China, the direct effects of an increase in CO 2 in the atmosphere will lead to an increase in the productivity of monsoon forests by 9.5-14%. It has been calculated that a doubling of the CO 2 concentration is expected to significantly increase the productivity of C3 plants (more than 90% of the terrestrial flora), in which the photosynthetic apparatus, without adaptation, is ready to increase the carbon dioxide content. This process will have a slightly lesser effect on C4 plants (gadget, cereals, Compositae, cruciferous, etc.), but morphological changes will be recorded in them: an increase in growth, leaf surface, etc.

Global climate warming by the middle of the XXI century. can lead to a displacement of the boundaries of vegetation zones (tundra, temperate forests, steppes, etc.) potentially by hundreds of kilometers. So, in the northern regions of Eurasia, the boundaries of vegetation zones will move north by 500-600 km, and the tundra zone will significantly decrease in size. According to UNEP, the forecast of climate change will appear in the accelerated decline in tropical forest and savannah areas in Africa.

3. Prospects for the development and solution of environmental problems of climate change

Recently, attention to greenhouse gas research has increased due to the problems of ratification and implementation by various countries of the United Nations Framework Agreement on Climate Change of 1997, abbreviated as the "Kyoto Protocol". The importance of such studies was specifically indicated in the resolution of the Summit of the Heads of the 8 leading powers in Genoa in July 2001.

Mankind is too slow to understand the extent of the danger that a frivolous attitude towards the environment creates. Meanwhile, the solution (if it is still possible) of such formidable global problems as environmental ones requires urgent energetic joint efforts of international organizations, states, regions, and the public.

Speaking about the possible options for the development of the ecological situation on the planet, it seems most meaningful to talk about some of the current areas of environmental protection. Otherwise, one would have to speak exclusively of the horrors of the depletion of natural resources.

In 1982, the UN adopted a special document - the World Charter for Conservation of Nature, and then created a special commission on environment and development. In 1983, the UN Commission on Environment and Development was established, which published the report "Our Common Future" in 1987. The keynote of the report was the famous phrase: "Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable - to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs." Although it was not explained how to do it.

Characteristically, in 1989, the Council of the Club of Rome also qualified sustainable development as a utopia, but "deserving to strive for it." At the same time, the Council of the Club decided to change its tactics and move from discussing environmental issues to developing a Strategy for International Action on XXI. century. According to the club, these actions should lead to "the first global revolution". However, the content and mechanisms of this socio-ecological revolution were not disclosed either in the wills of A. Peccei or in the book of the new leaders of the club.

Although each of the discussed global problems has its own options for partial or more complete solutions, there is a certain set of common approaches to solving environmental problems. In addition, over the past century, mankind has developed a number of original ways to deal with their own, nature-destroying shortcomings.

Among such methods (or possible ways of solving the problem) can be attributed the emergence and activities of various kinds of "green" movements and organizations. In addition to the notorious "Green Peace", which differs not only in the scope of its activities, but also, at times, in the noticeable extremism of actions, as well as similar organizations that directly conduct environmental actions, there is another type of environmental organizations - structures that stimulate and sponsor environmental activities - such as Wildlife Fund. All environmental organizations exist in one of the forms: public, private state or mixed type organizations.

In addition to various kinds of associations that defend the rights of civilization that are gradually destroying nature, there are a number of state or public environmental initiatives in the field of solving environmental problems. For example, environmental legislation in Russia and other countries of the world, various international agreements or the system of "Red Books".

International "Red Book" - a list of rare and endangered species of animals and plants - currently includes 5 volumes of materials. In addition, there are national and even regional "Red Books".

Among the most important ways to solve environmental problems, most researchers also highlight the introduction of environmentally friendly, low-waste and waste-free technologies, the construction of treatment facilities, the rational distribution of production and the use of natural resources.

Although, undoubtedly - and this is proved by the entire course of human history - the most important direction in solving the environmental problems facing civilization is the increase in the ecological culture of man, serious environmental education and upbringing, everything that eradicates the main environmental conflict - the conflict between the savage consumer and the rational inhabitant of a fragile world, existing in the mind of man.

Conclusion

Let us sum up the main results of the work.

Ecologists of all countries note a sharp warming of the Earth's climate. This climate change is called the "greenhouse effect".

The main cause of the greenhouse effect is called human production activity accompanied by an ever-increasing amount of carbon dioxide, methane and other optically active gases emitted into the atmosphere.

Although climate change, whether natural or human-induced (so-called anthropogenic), occurs relatively slowly, it covers vast regions and can therefore pose a serious problem for humanity.

The acuteness of modern environmental problems requires the participation of the broad masses of the population in their solution. Any technological, organizational and economic measures can give the proper effect only if the ecological idea takes hold of the masses. Mass ecological education is called upon to form an ecological worldview, morality and ecological culture of people. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to integrate all knowledge, both about the natural and social laws of the functioning of the environment.

The catastrophic consequences of climate change on Earth are practically inevitable, and we can only talk about their mitigation.

2. Losev K.S., Gorshkov V.G., Kondratiev K.Ya. Problems of ecology of Russia - M.: VINITI, 2001.

3. Barlund K., Klein G. "Medieval" diseases of modern Europe. - M. - 2003.

4. Kondratiev K.Ya. Global changes at the turn of the millennium // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – 2000.

Lavrov S.B., Global problems of our time. - SPb., 2000. - S. 101.

Lavrov S.B., Global problems of our time. - SPb., 2000. - S. 66.

The territory of Japan is 377,944 square kilometers, which is equal to the territory of, for example, a state such as Germany. In terms of population, Japan is among the top ten countries in the world, with about 127 million people living on its territory.

Rice. 1. Map population density per square kilometer by prefecture (2009).

The Japanese islands are part of the Pacific volcanic ring of fire. To put it simply: they are located at the junctions of tectonic plates. In the last century, geologists Toyokichi Harada and Edmund Naumann discovered a giant fracture in the earth's crust 150 kilometers southwest of Tokyo and named it Fossa Magna, which in Russian means the Great Ditch. Those. the fault line literally cuts the country's territory in half. Below on the tectonic map you can see what is at stake:

Rice. 2. Tectonic map of the Japanese islands. Fault lines of lithospheric plates are marked with different colors.

Japan is a unique country with a wonderful culture and wonderful people, unfortunately, it suffers frequent crashes due to the peculiarities of the climate. Let's look at three significant events in the history of the country's climatology:

September 1, 1923 the largest Kanto earthquake of magnitude 8.3 on the Richter scale occurs. In Tokyo and Yokogamo, about 143 thousand people died, about a million people were left homeless, 542 thousand people are still considered missing.

January 17, 1995 earthquake in Koba (magnitude 7.3). 6434 people died.

March 11, 2011 one of the largest earthquakes in the history of Japan with a magnitude of 9 points hit off the northeast coast. The earthquake triggered a devastating tsunami. Miyagi Prefecture and the city of Sendai suffered the most, where the wave height reached 10 m. From March 11 to March 25, 2011, a wave of earthquakes of magnitude from 1 to 9 occurred in Japan. According to eyewitnesses, many cities were shaking almost constantly. All these earthquakes caused several powerful waves that hit Japan, ranging in height from 3 to a record 10 meters. The Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant was hit by waves, as a result of which an accident occurred on it, which became the most serious radiation accident since the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. These events are called the biggest crisis in Japan since the Second World War.

Often, losing valuable time that can be used for nationwide unity in solving acute climate problems, tragic consequences come that affect, first of all, the fate and life of a particular person. As the first foundation of ALLATRA “VALUE OF LIFE” says: “The highest value in this world is human life. The life of any person must be protected as one's own, because although it is fleeting, it gives everyone a chance to increase their main value - their inner spiritual wealth, the only thing that opens the way to true spiritual immortality for the Personality. Increase the main value of your life every day, for a person is suddenly mortal. Strive for perfection, match your personal choice and activity with the main meaning of your existence - the spiritual and moral transformation of yourself, serving the highest universal spiritual values.

Japan is a country in a vast world. Planet Earth is a single organism. All processes, natural phenomena are interconnected. Therefore, it is impossible to ignore the general climate changes that are taking place in the world. The most important starting point was the report "":

“One of the most important international problems of the 21st century is global climate change. Of particular concern is the general rapid growth in the dynamics of cataclysms, which has been observed in recent decades. Today, there is a great risk of misunderstanding and underestimation of all factors and the scale of the influence of various cosmic and geological processes on global climate change on Earth.”

After analyzing the available disparate information that is in the bowels of the Internet, one can see the same trend - the number and dynamics of climate change is increasing. So:

Rice. 3. Seismic activity in the area of ​​the Japanese Islands with a magnitude above 5.0 in the period from 01/01/1977 to 01/31/2016 according to the Earthquake Research Institute of The University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)

Rice. 4. Natural disasters for 2015 in the world according to Munich RE.

Attention is drawn to the increased density of natural disasters in the area of ​​the Japanese Islands and the entire Ring of Fire, as well as the United States.

Rice. 5. Volcanic activity from 1611 to 2014.

Rice. 6. Graph of the number of tsunamis from 1990 to 2013.

Rice. 7. Graph of the number of earthquakes in the world from 1900 to 2008 with a magnitude of 6 to 8 points according to the USGS.

As can be seen from the graphs, the climate situation in the world and especially in Japan is extremely serious and, returning to the scientific report ALLATRA SCIENCE back in 2014 “ ”:

“The probability that in the next 10 years due to major eruptions and earthquakes the Japanese archipelago and life on it can be destroyed is 70%. And the probability that this will happen within the next 18 years is 99%.

Given the geographical location of Japan, this country is at the forefront of all the processes associated with climate change that are taking place in the world. Here is what an eyewitness from Japan, Vlad, says about this. We invite you to watch the release of the program “Climate through the eyes of eyewitnesses”. Tsunami threat in Japan. Earthquake 7.4. November 22, 2016.

And the most important thing is what is happening now in 2016, outside the window is November, and while this material is being written, edited, natural disasters continue to occur in Japan:

November 2, 2016 : An earthquake of magnitude 4.9 was recorded in the northeast of Japan, officials of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said on Nov. 2 Agencia EFE.
The earthquake hit at 7:37 am local time. The epicenter was located off the coast of Fukushin Prefecture at a depth of 20 km, JMA officials said.

Statistics of cataclysms allows you to track the number of events in the world, the severity of their consequences and the causes of occurrence. The main motives for collecting statistical data are: the search for effective ways to prevent disasters, the prevention of disasters, forecasting and timely preparation for them.

Types of disasters

Cataclysms (natural disasters) are phenomena and processes occurring on earth (or in space), which cause environmental destruction, destruction of material values, threaten lives and health. They can arise for various reasons. Many of them can be formed as a result of a person. Natural cataclysms and disasters can be short-term (from a few seconds) and long-term (several days or even months).

Catastrophes are divided into local and global cataclysms. The former have a devastating effect on the area where they occurred. Global - have an impact on the biosphere, leading to the disappearance of any plant species or. They can threaten the earth with climate change, large-scale migration, death, and humanity with complete or partial extinction.

On our planet, global cataclysms that led to climate change and the development of civilization have occurred more than once. The table below shows the different types of disasters.

The most destructive cataclysms in the history of mankind

According to statistics, cataclysms that have changed the course of history have occurred many times during the existence of mankind. Some of them are still considered the most terrible. Top 5 destructive cataclysms:

• flood in China in 1931 (the catastrophe of the 20th century claimed the lives of 4 million people);
• eruption Krakatoa in 1883 (40 thousand people died. And destroyed about three hundred cities);
• an earthquake in Shaanxi in 1556 of 11 points (about 1 thousand people died, the province was destroyed and empty for many years);
• the last day of Pompeii in 79 BC (the eruption of Mount Vesuvius lasted about a day, led to the death of several cities and thousands of people);
• And eruption of the Santorini volcano in 1645–1600. BC. (leading to the death of an entire civilization).

World indicators

The statistics of cataclysms in the world over the past 20 years has more than 7 thousand cases. More than a million people died as a result of these elements. The damage that has been done is estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars. The picture clearly shows which of the cataclysms that occurred during the period from 1996 to 2016. became the deadliest.

In the news of the planet, it is regularly said that the number of natural disasters around the world is steadily increasing. For 50 years the number of accidents has increased several times. Tsunamis alone occur about 30 times a year.

The graph shows which continents are most often the epicenter of natural disasters. Asia is the most prone to cataclysms. The US is in second place. According to geologists, North America may soon disappear from the face of the earth due to.

Natural disasters

The statistics of natural disasters over the past 5 years shows their 3-fold increase. According to scientists, more than 2 billion people have suffered from natural disasters during this time. This is every third inhabitant of our planet. Tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, droughts, epidemics, famine and other disasters are increasingly happening on earth. Scientists call the following causes of natural disasters:

• human impact;
• military, social and political conflicts;
• release of energy into geological layers.

Often the cause of disasters are the consequences of cataclysms that happened before. For example, after a large-scale flood, famine may occur or an epidemic may begin. Types of natural disasters:

• geological (landslides, dust storms, mudflows);
• meteorological (cold, drought, heat, hail);
• lithospheric (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes);
• atmospheric (tornadoes, hurricanes, storms);
• hydrospheric (typhoons, cyclones, floods);

natural disaster statistics hydrospheric nature (namely floods) today in the world shows the highest rates:

The chart below provides data on how many cataclysms occur, and how many people have suffered or died from each of them in recent times.

On average, about 50 thousand people per year die due to natural disasters. In 2010, the figure exceeded the threshold of 300 thousand people.

The following natural disasters occurred in 2016:

The BBC is constantly creating documentaries about natural disasters. They vividly and clearly demonstrate what is happening in the world, what disasters threaten humanity and the planet.

If the government of each country takes measures to provide for the population and prevent some disasters that can be predicted in advance, then cataclysms will occur less frequently. At the very least, the number of negative consequences, human casualties and material losses will be much less.

Data for Russia and Ukraine

Cataclysms occurred in Russia often. As a rule, they marked the end of the previous era and the beginning of a new one.

For example, in the 17th century, major disasters occurred, after which a new era began, more cruel. Then there were locust raids that destroyed crops, a great eclipse of the sun, the winter was very mild - the rivers were not covered with ice, which caused them to burst their banks in the spring and floods occurred. Also, the summer was cold, and the autumn was hot, as a result, in mid-December, the steppes and meadows were covered with greenery. All this led to the fact that there were prophecies about the coming end of the world.

As the statistics of cataclysms show, thousands of people die and suffer from them every year in Russia. Disasters cause losses to the country in the amount of up to 60 billion rubles. in year. Most of all cataclysms are floods. Second place is occupied by tornadoes and hurricanes. Between 2010 and 2015, the number of natural disasters in Russia increased by 6%.

Most of the disasters in Ukraine are landslides, floods and mudflows. Since there are a huge number of rivers in the country. In second place in terms of destructiveness are fires of forests and steppes, strong winds.

In April 2017, the last cataclysm in the country occurred. A snow cyclone passed from Kharkov to Odessa. Because of it, more than three hundred settlements were de-energized.

In connection with the results of the UN climate conference, REX IA expert Areg Dyushunts tried to figure out how many years we have left - five or less ...

At the very end of the year in Cancun (Mexico) the UN climate conference unexpectedly successfully ended. Both directions of negotiations - on the Kyoto Protocol and on long-term cooperation - ended successfully, but the main documents were adopted after the official end of the forum. As you know, the previous round with the participation of the top officials of the states ended in failure, in connection with which climate experts around the world did not particularly hope for success this time either. The conference participants confirmed the main goal of the human community in influencing the climate process - to prevent the average temperature on Earth from rising by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.

Apparently, the climate change taking place in the world and natural and man-made disasters seriously worried scientists, forcing them to make such a decision. Moreover, the predictions made five years ago were confirmed, and the world has no more time left to take decisive action against global warming and prevent a climate catastrophe. Even then, the opinion of most climate researchers agreed that these actions should be expressed in limiting carbon dioxide emissions, otherwise the Earth will be flooded by coastal cities and the extinction of half of the biological species.

The term of ten years left for the world for this was then determined by one of the leading American climate researchers James Hansen, who headed the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), speaking at a similar conference, dedicated to the study of climate change. "Droughts and heat waves will last longer, new hotspots of powerful hurricanes will appear, and about half of the species that exist today may disappear." According to Hansen, governments should have taken steps to limit carbon emissions and not allow average air temperatures to rise more than 1 degree Celsius. “I think we have a very short window of time in which we can deal with climate change… no more than ten years, that’s the maximum.” If countries continue to exist on the principle of hushing up problems, the average temperature in the world could rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius, and "we will get another planet," Hansen said. On this warmer planet, the glaciers will melt rapidly, causing sea levels to rise, potentially putting much of New York under water. Droughts and heat waves will last longer, new hotspots of powerful hurricanes will appear, and about half of the species now living may disappear.

Recently, in contrast, the opinion is often expressed that the degree of human influence on the climate does not exceed 2%, which means that the remaining 98% of the factors of change are either impossible to explain or refer exclusively to the “competence” of nature, regardless of human activity. As they point out, humanity can really influence the weather only by creating a greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, and he himself is only one of the causes of predicted global warming. A controversial issue, it is indisputable only that even a minimal impact can lead to disastrous consequences, therefore, we must try to reduce the negative impact of human activity on nature to a minimum.

Whether or not the conference participants will be able to fulfill their increased obligations in terms of influencing society to keep the temperature down, it will become clear, perhaps, only by 2050. Today, everyone is concerned about the question of how it is possible to rationally explain what is happening with nature now? And with this it is already completely unclear, since there are no less points of view on this than there are specialists dealing with this problem. Only in one of their opinions in the conclusions do they agree, which can also be characterized by a single phrase: "something is definitely happening." And the Internet is increasingly filled with publications where different opinions are expressed in this regard, but they also come down to the same thing in the end: scientists do not know what exactly is happening with the planet, and therefore cannot predict the development of events with a sufficient degree of probability. for the near future.

In this, the Center for Research on the Development of Disasters (CRED) has a certain advantage, where unique statistics of natural disasters on our planet are kept. And it is visually perceived, displayed on the charts of the number of disasters and the number of deaths from 1900 to 2009, coinciding with the data of the Swiss insurance group Swiss Re, according to which the number of victims of natural disasters in the world in 2010 amounted to a record figure of 260 thousand people. And this is the highest level since 1976, 17 times higher than in 2009. In Russia, the “excessive” mortality for July-August amounted to 55,736 people.

In the infamous Catastrophe-2010 top-list, Russia, with record heat caused by an anticyclone that hung over the region from mid-June until almost the end of August, occupies one of the first places. And yet, the earthquake in Haiti (more than 220 thousand dead) was the most devastating. Also, statistics include hurricanes in Central America, floods in China, India, Pakistan, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia to the most destructive cataclysms of the year.

Today it is clear to everyone that the avalanche-like growth of natural disasters is a problem that goes far beyond the scope of a purely scientific discussion. Those who are washed away, swept away, shaken, frozen and roasted more and more from year to year, can no longer be satisfied with hypothetical warming forecasts for decades to come. Against this backdrop, the success of Cancun seems to be just idle theorizing, too far from reality. People also want to know what surprises, and even more troubles, they can expect in the near future from the weather. But it is precisely with the forecasting of the vagaries of nature in the world in general and in Russia in particular that things are not brilliant. In any case, the interviewed foreign and domestic experts do not make such forecasts that could be considered as the most probable. Forecasters of Roshydromet are firm only in the fact that there is no way to accurately predict the weather more than three days in advance. But even for this period, which we have had to make sure of more than once, it is risky to predict in our country. Moreover, this applies to such a matter as long-term strategic forecasts. It is not for nothing that the last published document on this topic, which is freely available on the Runet, dates back to 2005. Apparently, Roshydromet attracted all possible resources to its compilation, it contains a detailed analysis of possible situations with recommendations on countermeasures. There is not only one thing that is the most important in forecasts - specifics. But this is a problem not only for Russian scientists.

Around that time, a well-known report was published that the world was on the verge of a climate catastrophe, and a special commission formed from scientists, politicians and businessmen at the initiative of the British government made the conclusion. She also came to the conclusion that in ten years or less, given the pace of environmental pollution, a global catastrophe will begin in the world.

The commission's report, entitled "In the Face of Climate Change," was intended primarily for people who make decisions in all areas of life, especially heads of state. For the first time in a document of this level, a critical indicator of global warming parameters was named - in the form of a temperature value, while reaching the indicated bifurcation point, irreversible changes will begin in the world. The consequences of this can be the most tragic: large-scale agricultural problems, lack of water, droughts, an increase in diseases, rising sea levels, the disappearance of forests, and this is not an exhaustive list. The number of other cataclysms will also increase, while rapid global warming will lead to the complete melting of the continental ice of Greenland and the disappearance of the Gulf Stream. Further, only an environmental planetary catastrophe that threatens the existence of the entire human race ... In this regard, Stephen Byers, the former Minister of Transportation, who headed the commission, noted: "This is an environmental time bomb with a timer on."

The report called on the G8 countries to double spending on low-carbon technology research by 2025 by 2010. The commission also advised the leaders of these countries to agree that a quarter of their electricity was generated using renewable sources, believing that it is necessary to form a climate group, which should include developing countries, primarily India and China, where carbon dioxide emissions are constantly growing. .

It was then that scientists named a critical figure - an increase in temperature by 2 ° C, moreover, in comparison with 1750. This year was taken as a starting point precisely because it marked the start of the Industrial Revolution, a year marked by the first time that human activity began to have a negative impact on the climate. Since then, the average world temperature has already increased by 0.8 ° C and everything continues to grow, and the world is separated from the critical point by no more than 1 ° C. In addition, data on the level of concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere seem no less ominous, when a certain level of saturation with it is reached, a temperature increase of 2 ° C will become inevitable - this is 400 millionths of a volume. And the amount of this gas in the air was 379 parts, annually it increases, as predicted, by another 2. Thus, the level of 400 millionths of the volume will be reached by 2015, if not earlier

The world spends huge amounts of money on the study of the Earth. These are both ground stations and orbital vehicles. By monitoring the same Earth from orbit, Europeans are ahead of the rest of the planet. The European Space Agency (ESA) operates a whole range of tools for various purposes, and each of them, to one degree or another, can work on the prediction of climate change and weather forecasts. The constellation of orbiters transmits more than 100 terabytes of data to Earth a year, three thousand projects use this data for their purposes on Earth. Of the total ESA budget of €3,744.7 million, 18.9%, the largest portion of the budget, is spent on studying the planet from space. Its Center for Earth Observation (ESRIN) operates as many as seven active satellites and plans to launch as many more.

However, all these impressive possibilities cause only annoying bewilderment, forcing to ask a reasonable question: how, with such volumes of information and resources involved, scientists only shrug their shoulders when accurate forecasting is required even for a short period of time? Maybe the addressed information does not reach the specialists who are able to help? After all, ESRIN says that satellite data is managed by project operators who distribute it to interested individuals and organizations. It should be understood that these data are available, but their widespread use is often hindered by financial or political complications. As an excuse, the Center emphasizes that data from the GMES program (Global Monitoring and Environmental Protection) will be (with some restrictions) freely available. And when? The main tool of the program - the Sentinel spacecraft (five satellites) - is being prepared for launch in 2012-2014. Well, the only thing left to do is wait...

Maybe you shouldn't wait? Otherwise, you can wait for something completely different - trouble. After all, it would seem, who today does not know that climate problems and catastrophe predictions are without exception global? And no country, no matter how powerful it is, is currently unable to cover the entire spectrum of climate problems and threats in terms of research and forecasts? And it turns out that even standing on the verge of a serious crisis, countries and organizations cannot agree on even much less sensitive issues than the exchange of expensive information. What is clearly seen just on the example of climate conferences, where decisions, if they are made, are often reluctantly, with a creak. And the authorities of other countries generally distance themselves from environmental and climate issues, hoping either in Russian for "maybe", or that there will be enough for their lifetime. Therefore, the significance of Cancun lies precisely in the fact that it showed that even they began to think. However, the world has not yet realized the seriousness of the coming natural anomalies. It remains really only to wait - some events that the next two years will bring us ...

When writing the article, the materials of "NG-Online" were used.

The climate catastrophe in Europe will be like this: an explosion in the form of floods, fires and droughts. This will mean big changes in our daily lives and it is important for us to start planning.

A new report by researchers is full of gloomy forecasts for Europe's climate in the coming decades.

“Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change” is the name of a report whose authors predict the occurrence and severity of natural disasters such as floods, forest fires and drought in Europe in the next 70 years.

Southern Europe will be hardest hit, with the report arguing that countries such as Portugal and Spain will face such an increase in extreme weather events that, according to scientist Bjørn Samset, this will have a significant impact on the economies of both countries.

“Southern and Western Europe will suffer the worst in the coming decades. They will experience a mixture of heat waves and coastal flooding. Climate problems there could become so big that they affect the whole of Europe, as food production in these countries becomes very difficult. This will also affect the economy,” says Samset.

Centenary Flood - more often

In the 2080s, Southern Europe will experience periods of drought and extreme heat every year, the authors of the report write. Heat waves, which they call "centenary heat waves", have a 70% chance of occurring in Southern Europe every year. A "centenary drought" can be expected every year with a probability of 60%. Much more wildfires, floods and storms are also expected in countries like Spain and Portugal in the 2080s.

Samset acknowledges that the report may scare many:

“The report is a very sad read. We know what happens when there is a lot of rain and it is very hot, and this shows how bad the climate can be in Europe,” he says.

The authors of the report used a range of techniques to predict extreme weather events. Samset, a researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, says the report was produced "in a serious and highly competent research environment."

Scientists are trying to predict the frequency and severity of natural disasters in Europe in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. To facilitate the task, the continent was divided into five parts. Projections for the 2050s reflect the international community's goal of limiting global mean temperature rise to a maximum of two degrees above pre-industrial levels.

There will be more floods in the north, and the heat will be more frequent

We in northern Europe need to prepare for floods and heat. According to the authors of the report, the chance to survive the "centenary flood" annually by 2080 will increase by 20%. There is a high probability (35%) that what we in northern Europe today call the hottest period of the century will occur every year in the 2080s.

“In the north, an increase in heat and an increase in the number of large forest fires is expected. The number of dry periods will also decrease significantly,” explains Samset.

Simply put, the trend is the same: Europe should, as early as 2020, and especially from 2050 onwards, expect a significant increase in heat waves, cold spells, droughts, forest fires, floods and storms. Natural phenomena will also increase in strength, and in Samset's opinion, we should expect that due to climate change, some parts of Europe will be "taken out of the game" from time to time.

However, he is not pessimistic about the future of the continent.

“There will be a lot of changes in our daily life, and therefore it is important to start planning infrastructure in the north now. Local authorities, for example, should not build housing in areas that would be prone to flooding. I think that we can cope with climate change, but it will require a lot of resources from the whole society.

"Serious people"

The situation in Norway and Northern Europe will be better than in the southern regions of the continent. But the report predicts significant climate change in the north as well: we should expect heat waves, wildfires and floods every year. There is a 40% chance that Northern Europe will experience a "centenary heat wave" every year, according to information analyzed by scientists.

The problem is that these climate changes will occur at the same time that society will have to move away from fossil fuels. The sum of these two challenges creates a very difficult situation for the use of resources in Europe - says Samset in the end.

Many are rather skeptical about climate research, assuring that there is a certain underlying reason.

I have always wondered: what could be someone's personal interest when predicting what the climate will be like in 100 years. Research was conducted by serious people who took information from many other specialists. I think that we will survive all this, but only if we don’t close on these forecasts now and pretend that nothing terrible will happen, Samset says about climate change.

Western Europe, namely France, the Benelux countries and Germany, must prepare for floods and heat waves almost every year since the 2020s. Somewhere around 2080, the probability of an annual "centenary flood" will increase by 30%, the probability of a "centenary drought" will increase by 40%.

“Something described in the report will happen no matter what. The goal is not to exceed the so-called "two-degree barrier", but even then we know for sure that there will be more natural disasters. When I give presentations to students in high schools, I strive to convey to them the following: no matter how they build their lives, climate will be on the agenda for as long as they are destined to live.