Value bets are betting on undervalued events. They may sometimes be referred to as "value bets". But the essence remains the same: the coefficient of the bookmaker's office must be higher than the real one. This happens when analysts make the wrong forecast. Or when a “line load” happens. Or when a technical failure occurs. To understand the essence of the strategy, you need to look at the theory of probability.
Why do beginners often lose all their money in bookmakers?
The answer is simple. They bet on the odds offered by the bookmaker. Beginners don't think about statistics. They do not take into account the probability of an event occurring. In addition, there is also a BC margin.
How do you determine the likelihood of an outcome occurring?
Bookmakers never give "pure odds". Those. those that directly reflect the likelihood of an event occurring. You have to analyze everything and calculate. For example, we went to the bookmaker's office "League of rates". Here we are interested in football. To be more specific, “Russia. FNL. We find the event we are interested in. This is Dynamo Moscow - Spartak Nalchik. Let's say we want to bet 1,000 rubles on Dynamo Moscow. The bookmaker's odds are 1.6. What is the probability of these events occurring? It is:
100/1,6 = 62,5%.
Those. just over 62.5% that Dynamo Moscow will win. This means that 37.5% of the time you will lose. Every third bet will result in a loss for you. Are you ready to lose 1/3?
In the language of numbers, it turns out:
Profit = P*(K-1)*V - (1-P)*V.
This formula is universal for "valuers". It allows you to determine the probability of the occurrence of a particular outcome.
- P is a letter that indicates the probability of an event occurring. It ranges from 0 to 1.
- K is the coefficient that the bookmaker offers us.
- V is the amount of money you bet.
Consider the strategy in relation to the above example. It turns out:
Profit \u003d 0.625 * (1.6 - 1) * 1,000 - (1-0.625) * 1000 \u003d 600-375 \u003d 225.
There is a nuance. Any bookmaker works "in plus" due to the margin. This means that the REAL % chance is much lower. The coefficient is underestimated. This automatically leads to lower profits.
It is in this case that value bets help us. They allow you to bet on undervalued odds. But at the same time, you will get an advantage over the bookmaker (and not the office over you!). This happens when the probability set by the bookmaker is not the actual probability of the outcome.
How can this be?
Let's say we have a Russia-New Zealand meeting. We are confident that New Zealand will win. The bookmaker offers us a coefficient of 1.6. It turns out that the probability of the event occurring is 62.5%. We have already calculated this a little higher. You are already sure that in fact the probability of such an outcome is much higher. According to your forecasts, it is 80%. It turns out that in the bookmaker's office the odds should be different. This is 100/80 = 1.25.
How do you discover value betting live? How to find value bets at a bookmaker?
Everything is simple here. You need the condition to be true:
K * P > 1.
- K is the coefficient that the bookmaker offers for betting.
- P is the probability of a positive outcome, which you yourself calculated.
Let's take our example. Above we have already described the numbers. In our case, it turns out that:
- 1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28.
- 1,28 > 1.
- 1,28 - 1 = 0,28.
What does this number mean? What does it matter? If you place bets, you will receive up to 28% of each. The profit is quite good. Perhaps you should just take advantage of this opportunity?
ATTENTION! You can count everything yourself. But it will be long. To significantly speed up the process, use the value betting calculator. 
What will happen in the long run? Can you make money at bookmakers?
Let's say we make 100 bets. How much will we get for them? How to calculate income?
Profit = 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200 rubles - 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200 rubles = 9,600 - 4,000 = 5,600 rubles.
In the long run, we won't merge. Earnings, of course, not the biggest. But he is stable.
What you need to know to make value bets for profit?
VALUE BETTING is a strategy for professionals. It is ideal for people who understand football. Thus, which approximately can predict the course of the meeting. Understand how the teams will diverge. Predict the victory of one or the defeat of the other. The main features are to:
- Find those event groups where it will be possible to use VALUE BETTING.
- Use special calculators and calculate everything to the smallest detail. Otherwise, you will merge.
- Arm yourself with other strategies. "Value betting" is considered the most profitable. But you are never immune from black bars.
- Keep in mind that each bookmaker takes a commission. The margin is individual. It depends on the sport. From the policy followed by the bookmaker. From the type of bet.
- Register with several bookmakers. Traditionally, we recommend you exclusively legal ones.
How much money to bet on value bets?
1,000 rubles? 10,000 rubles? 100,000? It is difficult to answer the question about a specific amount. It all depends on you and:
- The size of the bank in the bookmaker's office.
- Risks when betting.
- Underestimated outcome.
How to calculate the profit from a value bet? 3 examples with real numbers
Example No. 1. Bets taking into account the favorite
Let's say we have a match "Australia - Germany". The coefficient for the victory of Australia is 11. The coefficient for the victory of Germany is 1.28. The meeting should take place on June 19, 2017 at 18:00. It is planned in the framework of the “International. Prefabricated. Confederations Cup 2017. Russia. Accordingly, we have a clear favorite and a clear outsider. Is it worth saying once again that the coefficient on the favorite is underestimated? We look further at the statistics. It becomes clear that our outsider wins in 1 match out of 4. It turns out that the probability of his victory is 25%. Next, we substitute the data in the above formula. It turns out:
11 x 0.25 = 2.75.
2.75 is more than 1.
This means that betting on an outsider will be profitable.
ATTENTION! It turns out that we can make money at the bookmaker's office without stress! You only need to look at the statistics + use the mathematical formula. After that, you can bet.
Please note that the coefficient does not always have to be high. The main thing is more than 1. The lower the coefficient in the bookmaker's office, the higher the error. For example, the coefficient is 5.00. This means that the error is about 10%. This is less than 0.02. If we take a coefficient of 1.5, then the error on it will be much higher. It will be 0.0667. It turns out 3 (!) times more.
As practice shows, it is not necessary to bet on matches with odds below 2.00. They do not meet the requirements Most often matches Value Betting.
Example #2. Bets on the team that will win away
Let's say we found a team that wins away. She is consistently winning in 1/3 of the meetings. The coefficient set by the bookmaker is 3.30. This figure is optimal. It gives you the opportunity to win. For example, you would bet $3 on 3 games. Those. $1 per game. If the team wins, then you get $3.3. Of course, this is only in theory. In practice, we will need to take into account the shape of the players. Look at meeting statistics. Assess the chances of your opponents. Look for the presence / absence of injuries.
Let's say we went to the "League of rates". Here we found a sport of interest to us - hockey. To be more specific, it is the USA. NHL. We are interested in the Los Angeles-Arizona Coyotes.
The odds for Los Angeles to win is 1.40. If we bet $1, we get 1.40. Net profit: 1.40-1.00=0.40 dollars. Judging by the odds, the probability of winning is 60%. Or 0.6.
The odds for the Arizona Coyotes to win are 7.50. In this scenario, the amount of your winnings will be 1 dollar * 7.50 = 7.5 dollars. Net profit: 7.5-1=6.5. Here the probability of winning is minimal. It is approximately 10%.
Here they offer 4.00 for a draw. If we bet $1, we get $4. The net profit will be 4-1=3 dollars. The probability that a draw will happen is 30%. Or 0.3.
Next, we need to calculate the mathematical expectation. To do this, we use the above formula. Of course, we substitute our values into it. And already on their basis we draw conclusions about betting.
- Los Angeles win bets. 0.4 x 0.6 - 1 x (1 - 0.6) \u003d 0.24 - 0.4 \u003d - 0.16.
- Bet on the victory of the Arizona Coyotes team. 6.5 x 0.1 - 1 x (1 - 0.1) \u003d 0.65 - 0.9 \u003d - 0.25.
- Bets on the fact that in this meeting we will have a draw. 3 x 0.3 - 1 x (1 - 0.3) \u003d 0.9 - 0.7 \u003d 0.2.
It can be seen that betting on victories is risky. Only a bet on a draw has a positive mathematical value. The profit you can make is 20 cents.
ATTENTION! In value betting, the calculator is important! You should only make bets that have a mathematical expectation greater than 0. If it is less (or negative!), then you should not bet. If you don't want to risk too much, use bonuses from bookmakers. For example, Liga Stavok offers 500 rubles of free bet. BC "Leon" - 3,999 rubles to the account.
Example #3. The easiest betting option for VALUE BETTING
It is suitable for beginners. If you just started learning about value betting yesterday, this option is for you. The bottom line is to take the coefficient of the bookmaker's office for a certain outcome. Then it remains only to use the formula 100 / coefficient. For example, we choose the match "NY Islanders - NY Rangers". Next, we determine the rate and look at the odds. We don’t look at what the bookmaker offers for the victory of the NY Islanders. We just divide 100/60. It turns out 1.67. This means that a bet on the NY Islanders will win at odds greater than 1.67.
- Let's do a similar calculation for the NY Rangers. The bet on NY Rangers will win if the odds are higher than 10. How did we calculate this? Everything is simple. 100/10=10.
- Finally, let's calculate everything for a draw. She wins if the odds are greater than 3.33. For a quick calculation, we just need 100/30.
As you can see, value bets can actually bring you profit.
Where to look for value bets?
So, above we have already sorted out all the advantages. Value bets can be found in football, hockey, volleyball, baseball and other sports. Now there is another question. How do you find value betting football? What resources can be used for this? We offer 3 options for the development of events.
Option number 1. Bet on overvalued odds yourself
Suitable for those who are into sports. If you consider yourself an expert in boxing or football, feel free to choose it. True, there are also disadvantages:
- You will have to spend a lot of time. First - to search for events. After that - for the calculation.
- You are unlikely to understand the sport better than the experts. In bookmakers, experienced analysts monitor the odds. It is unlikely that you will be smarter than them.
- You still bear the risks. Of course, your prediction may be wrong. Because of this, the bet will lose. You will have to accept the loss.
Option number 2. Use Value Bet Scanner (value bet service)
The value betting program is a robot. It scans the odds set at different bookmakers. Data of 100-1000 BC can be analyzed in parallel. After that, the program collects the coefficients and finds the arithmetic mean there. It remains only to compare it with each coefficient separately.
ATTENTION! Scanners are also not always good. Recently, there is information that they were created by the bookmakers themselves. This was necessary to increase sales. Perhaps it is.
The program gives you the average odds per event + odds in a separate bookmaker. You need to analyze the numbers. It is necessary to find a value that differs from the average in a big way. It will just be considered underestimated.
Option number 3. Search for value bets among surebets
Any value betting strategy intersects with surebets. We wrote about them in a separate article. The very existence of the fork once again proves that one of the events was underestimated. Because of surebets, then value bets appear. But for a detailed analysis, you also have to use special solutions. For value betting programs are offered not only on the Internet. You can even find them at bookmakers.
What does the value betting calculator look like? Is it beneficial to use it?
The calculator allows you to quickly find the correct solution. These simple programs are presented on sites on the Internet. Sometimes there are even bookmakers! The service allows you to enter several data, and then calculate the profitability of the bet. Below we have presented one of the options. It has only 2 fields that you need to fill in:
- Coefficient. Here you specify the coefficient that the bookmaker offers for a specific outcome.
- Probability estimation. This is where you enter your personal estimate of the likelihood of the outcome occurring.
If you wanted to automate the process and reduce the risk of error, choose a calculator. 
Is it profitable or not very profitable to bet according to the strategy? Reviews about value betting
There are different reviews about value betting. Someone really learned to earn a lot. Someone had to face big losses due to their own mistakes. However, any beginner should understand 1 simple pattern. To become an experienced better, you need to study for a long time. Learn from your own mistakes as well. Therefore, before testing the strategy, answer 3 simple questions:
- Are you ready for losses? Are you ready to lose money on bets? To endure defeat and setbacks?
- Are you ready to make more than 100 bets? This is the only way you will understand if the strategy is profitable in the long run. For 10, 20 or 30 bets, you can draw conclusions. But they will be useless.
- Are you sure all bets are value bets? Have you really looked at the results of the team meetings? Are you sure that they will show themselves from this side in this match?
If you said "YES!" 3 times, all is well. If at least 1 of the questions raised doubts, then it is better to refuse transactions.
3 Benefits of Value Betting at a Bookmaker
- You don't have to take risks by placing money on multiple selections. This is exactly what you have to do in the case of forks. Here, everything is much simpler and more convenient.
- You are 100% sure that your account will not be blocked. Bookmakers have announced a real hunt for "arbers". The rates are easy to understand and track. But with the "valuers" everything is more complicated. For the bookmaker, you will be the same player as everyone else. Your behavior will not arouse suspicion.
- You will get much more profit than in surebets. Agree, the temptation to earn as much as possible beckons ...
Value betting is a strategy that will allow you to earn more! It remains only to correctly use it to get the result. Do not forget that it is difficult for beginners. We are not telling you that it will be easy money. You have to work hard, study, analyze. But the result in the form of profit over a long distance is really worth it! The doors to any bookmaker's office are open for "valuers"! Just choose the right one and bet safely. If you have any questions, visit our website for competent answers!
"Browsing the Internet for value betting teachings, I noticed that no one, not a single site, not a single "smart" player, knows at all about what percentage of probability this or that bookmaker's odds correspond to. Being on sports forums, I I don't see anyone paying attention to the fact that he "doesn't get it" in betting. I almost never saw anyone compare their probability of an event occurring - and the probability that the bookmaker gives.
I haven't seen anyone do it the right way, relying heavily on numbers. So I conclude that in general no one plays the way it is supposed to play. Almost everyone plays at random, relying on the news, the position of the team in the table, not realizing that in the same case, for example, you can bet on odds of 1.70, but you can’t bet on odds of 1.60, because the bookmaker has underestimated the likely outcome, i.e. underestimated, and therefore it is no longer profitable to bet.
Very often, it becomes funny to me when some players on the forums celebrate a victory after losing a session (tour). Some people have in their heads the fact that having won six events out of ten, you can celebrate success. But at the same time, the player did not indicate how much more he bet on the fourth event than on the eighth. And if you look in more detail, you can see even more horror that the player bet his tugriks on events that the bookmaker did not estimate and set an extremely low coefficient. The illusion of victory sometimes arises on "paper", but alas, it does not increase in the wallet. Very, pissed-off kings of some forums, thereby expose themselves to ridicule, but the truth is only in front of smart people. The worst thing is that beginners cannot understand this and are drawn into the swamp of endless defeats. It was a small digression, now I will introduce you to things that are generally known, but known to certain limits.
I think that hundreds of bets are enough to understand whether a player is playing consistently in plus or minus.
Why does the player lose at a distance? - because he bets his money on undervalued events.
If a player does not understand or does not even think about what an underestimated event is, then he can write the word on his forehead - sucker.
Loh is a welcome client for any gaming office where the client plays with the establishment.
In order not to be a sucker or at least reduce this value in yourself, you need to know the mechanisms of the institution. You need to know that no matter what team you bet on, what event or what outcome, no matter what odds and how much money, you still pay some part of the money just like that. This part is called margin.
Margin. It seems that a coefficient of 2.00 is equal to the probability of an event outcome as 50.0%, but in fact it is not. A probability equal to 50.0%, the bookmaker sets the coefficient 1.85 (in most cases). If 100 / 1.85 then 54.05% is obtained. The question arises, who ate 4.05%?
They were eaten by the margin, the bookmaker's commission, the rake of the institution, the percentage withdrawal, this is the official income of the bookmaker's office. With a two-way event, with a probability of 50 to 50, the bookmaker sets the odds 1.85 x 1.85, while taking a commission of 8.1%. formula М = (100/К1+100/К2)-100) М - margin. K1 - odds for one outcome, K2 - odds for the opposite outcome.
The betting empire and the nature of the forecast is designed so that it does not matter who the player is, nothing depends on what color of skin he is, age, religion, height, weight, etc. It doesn't even matter whether the player has been involved in professional sports, physical education, or has been lying on the couch all his life. One thing is important, that approximately, with a certain degree of error, every player, guesses half of the bets, and does not guess half of the bets . It is not important that he guessed or did not guess, it is important that he paid a commission. Commission from each bet, regardless of whether she lost or won. Of course, sooner or later, the player who wins half and loses half will lose everything just by paying the margin. The player who often bets on underestimated outcomes loses faster than others, because he pays the margin that is shifted to this outcome and becomes larger.
VALUE BETTING is the only mathematical strategy to win over the bookmaker. It is based on the player's search for events that are overestimated by the bookmaker. How much the bookmaker overestimated a particular event, so much can be won from the bookmaker.
If for one outcome, in a two-way event (for example, TM-TB or W1-X2), under the influence of some external factors, for example, information, the crowd began to pile money on one specific outcome, then the bookmaker is forced to reduce the odds for this outcome, because in if it falls out, the bookmaker will have to pay a lot of money, and if the odds are lowered, then less money can be paid out.
If the coefficient goes down for one outcome, then it goes up for the opposite one. But the trick is that the probability of the occurrence of an event will not go anywhere, and this is the life of a player who professionally approaches the matter and has determined his probability of the occurrence of an event, which he calculated according to his algorithm. And let the crowd and BC shy away anywhere.
By reducing the odds for a specific outcome, the bookmaker also shifts the margin to it. It is known that the standard margin in a bookmaker's office is 4.05% for one outcome, which in total gives 8.1% for both outcomes. When the coefficient decreases, for example, by P1, the margin also shifts, for example: 6.1 x 2.0. But sometimes the line bends even more, for example 8.1% x 0.0% , and sometimes even more, for example + 12.1% x - 4.0% , and then the case of vallue betting comes.
It may sound strange, but it turns out that we are taking a 4% margin for ourselves by betting on X2. And it doesn’t matter at all whether this particular event will play or not, the main thing is to win at a distance. A player who bets on an undervalued event pays an increased margin, and a player who bets on an overvalued event, it turns out that he gets rid of the margin payment altogether.
The formula by which we can calculate the bookmaker's margin on a two-way event:
M \u003d (100 / K1 + 100 / K2) -100
Inverted, the formula looks like this: K2 \u003d 100 / ((M + 100) -100 / K1)
If we know that the margin in the vast majority of cases is 8.1%, then the formula looks like this:
K2 = 100/(108.1 - 100/K1)
Knowing the formula, I made a table. Some knew, and some only guessed, that odds of 1.85 equaled 50% probability, but no one knew how things were with other odds. Therefore, I decided, without asking anyone for money, to acquaint the public with other odds and probabilities.
COEFFICIENTS AND PROBABILITIES
94.1% - 1.02 - 9.95 - 5.59%
92.8% - 1.03 - 9.00 - 7.20%
92.0% - 1.04 - 8.50 - 8.00%
91.5% - 1.05 - 8.00 - 8.45%
90.5% - 1.06 - 7.50 - 9.50%
89.6% - 1.07 - 7.00 -10.4%
89.0% - 1.08 - 6.50 - 11.0%
87.0% - 1.09 - 6.00 - 13.0%
85.9% - 1.11 - 5.50 - 14.1%
84.4% - 1.13 - 5.00 - 15.6%
83.5% - 1.15 - 4.80 - 16.5%
83.0% - 1.17 - 4.50 - 17.0%
82.4% - 1.18 - 4.20 - 17.6%
80.0% - 1.20 - 4.00 - 20.0%
77.7% - 1.23 - 3.80 - 22.3%
75.0% - 1.26 - 3.50 - 25.0%
72.8% - 1.30 - 3.20 - 27.2%
71.9% - 1.33 - 3.10 - 28.1%
70.5% - 1.36 - 3.00 - 29.5%
68.4% - 1.38 - 2.80 - 31.6%
67.8% - 1.40 - 2.75 - 32.2%
64.9% - 1.45 - 1.45 - 35.1%
63.5% - 1.47 - 2.50 - 36.5%
62.5% - 1.51 - 2.40 - 37.5%
61.5% - 1.53 - 2.35 - 38.5%
60.5% - 1.55 - 2.30 - 39.5%
59.5% - 1.58 - 2.25 - 40.5%
58.6% - 1.60 - 2.20 - 41.4%
57.5% - 1.62 - 2.15 - 42.5%
56.4% - 1.65 - 2.10 - 43.6%
55.3% - 1.68 - 2.05 - 44.7%
54.1% - 1.72 - 2.00 - 45.9%
52.8% - 1.76 - 1.95 - 47.2%
51.4% - 1.81 - 1.90 - 48.6%
50.0% - 1.85 - 1.85 - 50.0%
48.5% - 1.91 - 1.80 - 51.5%
47.1% - 1.96 - 1.75 - 52.9%
45.2% - 2.02 - 1.70 - 54.8%
43.6% - 2.08 - 1.65 - 56.4%
41.4% - 2.20 - 1.60 - 58.6%
39.5% - 2.30 - 1.55 - 60.5%
37.4% - 2.41 - 1.50 - 62.6%
35.1% - 2.55 - 1.45 - 64.9%
35.6% - 2.65 - 1.42 - 66.4%
32.6% - 2.73 - 1.40 - 67.4%
31.6% - 2.80 - 1.38 - 68.4%
30.0% - 2.94 - 1.35 - 70.0%
28.3% - 3.09 - 1.32 - 71.7%
27.1% - 3.21 - 1.30 - 72.9%
24.1% - 3.56 - 1.25 - 75.9%
22.1% - 3.83 - 1.22 - 77.9%
20.7% - 4.03 - 1.20 - 79.3%
19.3% - 4.28 - 1.18 - 80.7%
17.1% - 4.73 - 1.15 - 82.9%
14.8% - 5.31 - 1.12 - 85.2%
13.2% - 5.82 - 1.10 - 86.8%
11.5% - 6.45 - 1.08 - 88.5%
8.80% - 7.78 - 1.05 - 91.2%
7.00% - 9.08 - 1.03 - 93.0%
6.00% - 9.94 - 1.02 - 94.0%
5.00% - 11.0 - 1.01 - 95.0%
In the center of the table is the central value of 50.0% - 1.85 - 1.85 - 50.0%. This means that by setting a coefficient of 1.85, the bookmaker predicts that the probability of an event occurring is 50%. If our probability is 60%, then we must bet 1.85 on this "high" odds. If our probability is 40%, then we have no right to bet on such a "low" odds of 1.85.
In the middle of the columns are the coefficients, and on the sides are the probabilities that are assigned to them. The coefficients familiar to our eye are in the third column (it just so happened, the kinks are in place).
I give a simple example of how to win against a bookmaker using the table:
the team played at home 1 match on TB and 9 matches on TM, the opponent played 2 matches on the road and 8 matches on TM.
Total
1 - TB, 9 - TM, 2 - TB, 8 - TM.
it turns out that together the teams played 20 matches,
3 - TB - 15%
17 - TM - 85%
We get that our probability that the teams will play on the TM is 85%. , we calculated it with a simple and ingenious algorithm of our own invention.
Let's say the bookmaker issued the following line: TM - 1.65, TB - 2.10. We open the folder with my table and see that the bookmaker tells us that the probability of the arrival of TM is 56.4%.
But we then carried out our calculations according to our algorithm and found that the probability of the onset of TM is 85%.
Our probability is 85%, and the probability of the bookmaker is 56.4%, so the value was + 28.6%. This means that we definitely bet on TM and if the bookmaker constantly makes such mistakes, then we will ideally increase by 28.6 for each bet.
I hope that everyone will copy the table to their computer and use it when making bets. It is necessary to put overestimated and in no case put underestimated events. I hope that everyone can develop their own algorithm for determining their own probability. By the end of the year, we will be able to hold a meeting of millionaires and exchange experiences. To be honest, I'm bored alone resting on the laurels of the winner, so I donate this table to everyone who is interested."
Partner (s)
http://www.betdogs.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=1648
Value Betting is a mathematical strategy for betting on underestimated outcomes, the quotes of which are overpriced according to the player, based on statistics and other factors.
For example, a team wins on the road in every third match. Hence, the coefficient on her winnings is 1 to 3.3. By betting 3,000 rubles on 3 matches, you will receive 3,300 rubles. Of course, this is in theory, since only statistics are taken into account here, and not the form and composition of teams, motivation, opponents, and so on.
The theory of probability will help us.
Try to answer the question. Why do most players lose at bookmakers?
And now the correct answer. Because they bet on the odds set by the bookmaker, without thinking about statistics and probability in the future.
Unclear? Let's look at an example. Let's say you regularly bet 100 rubles on odds of 1.6. The bookmaker calculates the probability using the formula 100/1.6=62.5%. This means that in the long run you will lose in 37.5% of cases. This makes previous successes meaningless. Don't believe?
Mathematical expectation of the average profit: P * (k-1) * V - (1-P) * V, Where:
- P – probability (value from 0 to 1);
- k is the coefficient;
- V - bet money.
Let's calculate the numbers from the example above:
profit = 0.625 * (1.6-1) * 100 - (1-0.625) * 100 = 37.5 - 37.5 = 0.
Zero. Yes, exactly zero. Badly? No, even worse. Offices set a margin. This means that the probability of a pass is higher than the real one, and the quotes are lower. Instead of a lack of income, it turns out a minus.
Principle of Value Betting
How to be? Let's go back to the term value betting.
Value bets are betting on undervalued quotes (with overpriced odds) in order to gain an advantage over the bookmaker. The probability that the bookmaker offers is wrong according to your calculations.
Example. Fight Spartak-Krasnodar. The offices set quotes for P1 1.6 (probability 62.5%). You think that the real chances are 80%, which means that the odds should be 1.25 (100/80). How do you know if it's a value bet or a value bet?
Eat special formula: k * P > 1, Where:
- k – bookmaker quotes;
- P is your probability of the event.
Let's do the calculations:
- 1.6 * 0.8 = 1.28 > 1.
1.28 - 1 = 0.28 - if you bet on such outcomes, then in the future you will earn 28% from each transaction, despite unsuccessful bets.
profit \u003d 100 transactions * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 100 rubles - 100 transactions * (1-0.8) * 100 rubles \u003d 4800 - 2000 \u003d 2800 rubles.
Q.E.D.
How to find value bets?
Everything is fine, but how to find values for football and other sports disciplines? Keep 3 ways.
Independent search for overvalued odds
If you are well versed in the sport and are an expert who evaluates all the nuances that affect the outcome, then go ahead. Forgive me, but I have doubts that you are capable of beating teams of bookmaker analysts who receive impressive sums for their work at a distance. If I'm wrong, congratulations! As a rule, successful bettors of the office are offered a job, and a highly paid one.
Value bet scanner (value bet service)
The principle of operation of the services is to scan quotes for one outcome from different bookmakers and calculate the average value. Then there is a comparison with all coefficients.
The arithmetic mean is considered the most accurate value, since it was taken by all employees of the scanned offices. In fact, it is. It turns out that the coefficient, which deviates significantly from the average, will be value.
Scanners are available in arb services for free, for example, at .
Search for underestimated events among surebets
The presence indicates an underestimation of one of the events. The fork is the reason for the appearance of value, the source of value bets. It’s good if the service provides live surebets, but they have a minus – there is not enough time for a qualitative analysis.
Bet size
After the calculations have been made and the choice of a match on which it is profitable to bet in terms of Value, it is required to determine the amount of the bet. If you are confident in your own calculations, you can apply
Hello friends! Today's topic is what is value in betting and what is it for? This question arises in almost every capper who encounters such terms in the course of his activities. Many bettors believe that value betting is a strategy that guarantees profit over the course of time. Professionals and experienced players every time say that Value Betting is a concept, it is a special approach to betting, which every player who hopes to make his own source of income from betting in the future must learn. We talked about this in part in the article.
Value - today you hear literally at every step and at every betting shop. But do all players really understand the meaning of this term? Of course not. In essence, value betting is an advantage over the line. This is a valuable bet for the player. If the bookmaker guarantees himself a profit each time due to the margin, then the player's task is to guarantee himself a profit at a distance due to a small advantage over the line.
Why is it so difficult to understand the meaning of this term? The fact is that value exists in two forms - objective and subjective. Each value must be mathematically justified. If the bettor was able to do this, then such a bet can be called an objective value. A subjective advantage is when, in the eyes of a capper, a certain outcome in a match has more chances of passing than the same event was assessed by the bookmaker himself. It is these rates on the Internet that are often characterized by the mythical terminology of "concrete", "concrete", "sure", etc. Although, in fact, for sure, many of you know what such bets turn into. Because the subjective value has value in the eyes of a certain person, but it is not mathematically justified, besides, the odds of the bookmakers say the opposite - there is always a risk.
How to determine Value?
We have defined what value is in betting, now it's time to learn how to define it. What is needed for this:
- Follow a specific sport, championship, team
- Follow news and real-time information
- Track the best deals on the market
Value betting how to play and how to find the value bet in bookmaker odds, we will conduct 2 experiments, look through the scanner and manually.
Value bets or value bets how to play correctly
Value betting system is a strategy that offers users to bet on underestimated events.
Value bets (Value bets) - these are bets on underestimated events from bookmakers. That is, where the BC coefficient is higher than the real one.
To fully understand the nature of this strategy, let's delve a little into probability theory.
Question: Why do most players lose their money at bookmakers?
Answer: Because they bet on the odds offered by the bookmaker, without thinking about statistics and probability in the long run.
Unclear? Let me explain with an example, bookmakers won’t tell you about this: let’s say you always bet 200 rubles at odds of 1.6. This means that the bookmaker determines the probability of these events passing as 100/1.6 = 62.5%.
Which, in turn, suggests that, according to statistics, in the long term, invisible to you, you will lose in 37.5% of cases. And this nullifies all the money won before.
The total mathematical expectation of your average profit over time will be:
Profit = P*(K-1)*V - (1-P)*V
- P is the probability of the event (value from 0 to 1);
- K — coefficient from the bookmaker's office;
- V is the money you bet.
Let's calculate on real numbers from the example above
Profit \u003d 0.625 * (1.6 - 1) * 200 - (1-0.625) * 200 \u003d 75 - 75 \u003d 0
Bad news? There are even worse. An important nuance: the bookmaker has a margin (which means that the default probability is greater than the real one, and the coefficient is less than - ), which automatically reduces the profit to a figure less than 0. I think you understand what this means.
How to be?
Now let's get back to the definition of a value bet or value bet.
Overweight betting (value betting) is a strategy in which you have to bet on undervalued odds with an advantage over the bookmaker. That is, the probability set by the bookmaker, in your opinion, is not the real probability of the outcome.
Example: match Argentina-Chile, the bookmaker puts odds of 1.6 on the victory of Argentina, which means the probability of this event is 62.5%, and you think that the probability is 80%, so the real odds should be 100/80 = 1.25
How do you know if it's a value bet? The condition must be met (value betting formula):
- K is the coefficient of the bookmaker
- P is your probability of a positive outcome.
Let's make a calculation, substitute the data from the example:
1,6 * 0,8 = 1,28 > 1
1.28 - 1 = 0.28. This means that if you bet on such events, then in the long run, despite the losses, your profit will be 28% of each bet.
(You can find a calculator below so you don't have to do all this by hand)
Let's substitute the data into the formula that reflects the mathematical expectation of the average profit and imagine that the player makes 100 bets
Profit \u003d 100 bets * 0.8 * (1.6-1) * 200 rubles - 100 bets * (1-0.8) * 200 rubles \u003d 9600 - 4000 \u003d 5600 rubles
Q.E.D
How much to bet
To choose the optimal bet amount depending on the risk and underestimation of the outcome, the strategy is often used. It allows you to calculate what percentage of the bank you can bet on the current rate.
How to find value bets
All this is great, but how to find value bets on football, hockey and other sports where the value of the bet is determined by inflated odds.
Here are 3 possible ways
Find overvalued bet odds in the line yourself
If you are very well versed in a particular sport and consider yourself a true expert, able to evaluate all the factors that affect the outcome of an event, then the flag is in your hands. But I wildly doubt that your expert knowledge will be stronger than that of a team of experts from BC doing this professionally.
Using Value Betting Scanner, aka Value Betting Service
The principle of their operation is that they scan the odds for a specific event from a large number of offices and calculate the arithmetic average. Then they compare it with each coefficient separately, which are issued by the offices.
According to the assumption, the average value is the most accurate value, because, in fact, all experts from all scanned bookmakers worked on it.
We conclude that the value that differs from the average upwards is an underestimated event.
Where can I find value bet scanner sites? Many of the arb services provide such an opportunity, for example, Surebet.
Search for value bets among surebets.
The fork is the source. The very existence of a fork means that one of the events is underestimated. A fork is essentially an initiator of a value bet. Read more, maybe you will learn a lot of new things for yourself.
If the service also issues live surebets, then here are the value bets in live. Their main disadvantage is the lack of time for a thorough analysis.
Let's get back… after analyzing the coefficients of other offices, you can easily guess which of the events is more underestimated.
Let's try to do all this in the field at real odds.
Value betting in practice. 2 cases
Case 1. Searching surebets scanner
Let's take a real fork in the USA-Canada hockey game
1/1,5+1/3,32 = 0,9678 < 1, значит вилка есть
And now let's try to determine which of the odds is overrated by analyzing other bookmakers
Let's calculate the average there and there:
(1,47+1,4+1,43+1,4+1,46+1,42+1,42+1,45) / 8 = 1,43
(2,82+3,0+2,9+2,85+2,94+2,85+2,85+2,78) / 8 = 2,87
Live, everything is possible, so we get both outcomes underestimated
- 1,43 < 1,5 на 1,5-1,43 = 0,07 это 3,27%
- 2,87 < 3,32 на 3,32-2,87 = 0,45 это 4,72%
and you can bet on any, but the outcome under(4,5) he is TM(4.5) more underrated, so bet on it.
Case 2. Manual search
Case how you can manually try to determine the value bet
Let's take the English Premier League match between Newcastle and Tottenham as an example. Suppose that even before the start of the match, you did a deep analysis and realized that the bookmaker set the odds skewed. Now we need to check if you are right.
To do this, you need to use the formula that was given earlier:
The odds for the hosts to win is 4.6. According to the statistics of past matches, Newcastle usually wins 1 match out of 4. This means that, based on the theory of probability, the hosts win in 25% of fights.
If we substitute our data into the formula, we get: 4.6 * 0.25 = 1.15. If the result is greater than one, then this bet will be profitable.
As you can see from the above example, our bet played. However, our system itself is rather doubtful. The Value bet strategy is good in the long run. You can also apply it in symbiosis with the "" strategy. The main thing is that the final result of the calculation according to the formula must be greater than one.
Value bet calculator
For convenience, below is a Value betting calculator online service - a program where you can calculate the profitability of a bet.
- field — enter the odds given by the bookmaker for the event
- field - enter your personal assessment of the probability as a percentage
Conclusions. Is it profitable to use valueng. Review.
According to probability theory YES, but:
- A really large number of bets is needed for the statistics to do their job (not 10, not 20 or even 100, but more). Are you ready for this?
- Are you sure that the rates you will use will actually be value bets?
But there are also arguments in defense:
- Compared to surebets, you do not need to take risks and place a bunch of bets on all leverages at the same time.
- Your account will not be blocked, as your behavior will be as similar as possible to the behavior of a regular player.
- Profit is more than in surebets.
