Have you noticed how lately everyone has been talking about the so-called. imminent "global end"? And if I met such conversations only on the Internet, I would not pay any attention to them. But here's the thing - I hear them more and more often from people who in my layouts were considered very far from anything, in other words, their interests were limited to work, beer, vodka and "cool television series."
Those who are, as it were, smarter, are trying to imagine the contours of this very “end”, and the smarter a person considers himself, the more complex designs he invents. But if under<концом>keep in mind the response of nature to the chaos that has already been arranged by homo sapiens, then we can definitely say that its formula will be very simple, because nature always reacts according to the simplest, and therefore the most energetically beneficial scheme. Those. when the “end” happens, those who remain alive and retain the ability to analyze will be surprised for a long time how simply and effectively everything happened!
Now I plan to talk about such a concept as climate. Have you noticed that the climate is changing? I can say that even 30 years ago it was completely different. For example, in our area (Northern Black Sea region), winters were colder and more stable, but summer came quickly. For example, on March 10, there could still be frost and snow, and on April 20, people were already swimming in the sea and sunbathing. Those who are 70-80 years old tell how in the 30-40s there were long snowy winters and very long warm autumns.
Now everything is different. Except for the abnormally cold winter of 2005-2006. and the non-standard winter of 2002-2003, it can be said that since 1996 there have been no winters as such. Autumn turned into spring. There were winters when the grass was fresh green all the time. Over the past 5 years, we have broken all temperature records, not summer ones (which is not so interesting), but winter ones. So in January 2005 we had up to +16, in February 2007 +17, and in December 2001 +14.
ATTRACTOR AND PHASE TRAJECTORIES
So, winter 2006/2007. was unusually warm. But the winter of 2005/2006 is very cold. At the same time, very few absolute records for high / low temperatures were set. Those. it was warmer on a particular day, although if we take the average temperature over the winter, then yes, it is the warmest in the last 50 years.
Let's take a typical city in the middle lane. Suppose, over the past 100 years of observations, it has been established that the maximum temperature on January 20 was in 1938 and reached +11 degrees. And the minimum - in 1984 and dropped to -38 degrees. All other values noted for 100 years fell within these limits.
So, the current phase trajectory is the weather. The weather is what we have now. It may be different, but it always fits into strictly defined norms. For example, in Moscow now (August 18) it can be +9 degrees. This is not quite usual for August, but it fits into the norm. This was the temperature. But -25, well, it can’t, more precisely, theoretically it can, but then it’s appropriate to talk about a catastrophe. The final state of all phase trajectories (in relation to the weather - for a yearly cycle) is called an attractor. The attractor is the climate. An attractor is a range of values. He, unlike the weather, is always stable. Those. The weather is what is now, at this moment in time. And climate is what<вообще>, which is always. It is appropriate to ask the question:<а какая погода в Париже будет завтра>? And they will answer it for you, and quite accurately. But to the question<какая погода будет в Париже через неделю>so you can't really answer. Of course, you can say that there will most likely be no frost, as well as a heat of 50 degrees, but it’s impossible to say what the wind strength will be, whether it will rain. We can give a more or less accurate forecast for 3 days, no more.
For a very long time, people could not understand what exactly prevents us from writing forecasts for months or even years ahead. It was believed that we simply could not calculate everything. Only with the introduction of computer technology and the ability to process a huge amount of data, the issue was clarified. In 1963. This was done by the recently deceased University of Massachusetts meteorologist Edward Lorenz. He, studying particular solutions of the Navier-Stokes system of equations describing the movement of convection air flows, showed that the point is not even that it is impossible to find an exact solution, but that this very solution is unusually sensitive to initial conditions.
The joint solution of these three quite simple and uniquely solvable (individually) equations as a result always represented a dynamic chaos with a finite forecast horizon, i.e. a time where the future is unambiguously determined by the past. And the whole family of phase trajectories (i.e. possible weather values)<закручивалось>into a finite region, which he called a chaotic or strange attractor.
That is why the weather is basically impossible to predict even in the medium term. Those. if you set a wind speed of 5.2 m/s and a time of 1 day you will get one result, and if 5.21 m/s and a time of 5 days you may get a dramatically different result.
A.F. Ioffe in his lectures gave an example showing how much even the smallest perturbations begin to influence if we need high measurement accuracy (ie, maximum information). Namely, this is what is needed to predict the weather.
“For greater clarity, imagine a hypothetical situation where predicting the evolution of a system one day ahead requires knowledge of the initial conditions with an accuracy of 10^-3, two days with an accuracy of 10^-6, three days with an accuracy of 10^-9, and etc. In this situation, the prediction time increases in an arithmetic progression, and the accuracy of setting the initial conditions increases geometrically. In order to predict 100 days ahead, an already unthinkable accuracy is required - 10^-300! (i.e. you need to know the original values with an accuracy of 300 decimal places - MAdeB). Even if our instruments could make such measurements, for example, of temperature and pressure, necessary for weather forecasting, then the disturbance introduced by the flapping of the wings of an ordinary butterfly would far exceed the effect associated with the inaccuracy of these measurements (or, in other words, in this situation for a long-term weather forecast, it would be necessary to take into account all the butterflies living on Earth at the present time). In this case, despite the deterministic description of the process, a statistical, probabilistic approach is needed for long-term forecasts.”
Thus, for a strange attractor, two close trajectories will eventually cease to be close. This means that no matter how accurately the initial data is measured, the error will become large over time and, therefore, the behavior of the system over long time intervals cannot be predicted. This phenomenon has been called<эффектом бабочки>. The strange attractor of Lorenz just looks like a butterfly, maybe that's where the name comes from. In other words, the flapping of a butterfly's wings somewhere in Texas can cause floods in India, cyclones in Greenland, and drought in Ethiopia. It’s another matter that we won’t be able to accurately track this, but the fact remains that minor impacts can give rise to catastrophic consequences.
But the stability of the attractor does not mean that it will exist forever. It can collapse, and even abruptly, or it can gradually change. Now we will talk about how the climate on earth changed during the tracked historical epoch.
II.
Little Ice Age
Now everyone is talking about warming, and most attribute it to the environment, in particular to greenhouse gas emissions, but even now we are not even close to the Neo-Atlantic optimum, which was established in Europe in 900-1100 (the upper age varies in different sources). The warming itself began around the time of the fall of the Western Roman Empire. During the optimum period viticulture flourished even in England and Scotland. Orchards flourished there. The northern regions of Russia, for example, the shores of the White Sea, were covered with broad-leaved forests. Optimal moisture favored agriculture, which is why feudal exploitation was quite mild. There was enough for everyone. It was then that the white race greatly increased in numbers and gained strength. It was then that a population explosion apparently occurred among the Nordic tribes of Scandinavia, which led to the expansion of the Vikings throughout Europe and the discovery of Iceland by them (<ледяного острова>), Greenland (<Зеленого Острова>— now it is never green). According to the analysis of tree rings, bottom sediments, etc. it has been established that when the Vikings explored the coast of Greenland, the temperature there ranged from +10 degrees in July to -7 in January. Around 1000, the Vikings began to explore the east coast of North America.
This was probably one of the best periods in the life of the race, which is why we know so little about it.
But the thermal idyll came to an end, and the most interesting thing is that it came quite quickly, a maximum of a few decades. The so-called. "Little Ice Age" (MLA).
Scientists are still arguing what exactly had such a negative impact on the climate? A popular version is that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. May be. But the Gulf Stream begins in the Caribbean Sea, and this is a climatically unstable region. Now, almost every year, we hear about catastrophic "El Niño hurricanes" sweeping away everything in their path. But this is now, when global observations are being made. What was in the Caribbean then we do not know, perhaps the slowdown was caused by a decrease in solar activity. The Gulf Stream carries an amount of water equal to three thousand such rivers as the Volga in its lower reaches. It is thanks to him that one can live in Europe in general. Petersburg is located on the 60th parallel, where 5 million people live. And quite glamorous Stockholm from Helsinki. In the southern hemisphere, at this latitude, no one lives except for penguins. On the eastern side of Eurasia, on the same parallel, is Chukotka, where several tens of thousands of people live in yurts. Murmansk is located on the 68th parallel, even penguins do not live on it in the Southern Hemisphere. And where is the guarantee that the Gulf Stream will not slow down in the next couple of years? After all, the smallest factors can play a role here.
Of course, if the Gulf Stream then slowed down, then just a little bit, because the system is too inert. But the consequences were simply catastrophic. Europe was saved perhaps only because almost the entire population was engaged in agriculture. Now there will be no such lava.
There were 2 "peaks" of MLP - XIII-XIV and XVII centuries. Now we will talk about the first, about the XIII-XIV century. Orchards and vineyards froze out not only in England and Scotland, but in northern Germany. In winter, European rivers were stably fettered by water, which then greatly facilitated the movement of the Mongols, so they made all their campaigns in winter. Even the mouth of the Nile froze several times. Alexander Nevsky staged his Battle on the Ice on April 5, 1242, and the ice completely withstood the heavy cavalry of the Teutonic Knights.
Here are typical "summaries" that have come down to us since that time:
In 1010-1011, frosts fettered the Turkish coast of the Black Sea. Terrible cold reached Africa, where the lower reaches of the Nile River were covered with ice.
In 1210-1211, the rivers Po and Rhone froze. In Venice, wagon trains traveled across the frozen Adriatic Sea.
In 1322, the Baltic Sea was covered with such a thick layer of ice that sledges were driven from Lübeck in Denmark to the shores of Pomerania.
In 1316, all the bridges in Paris were torn down by ice.
In 1326, the entire Mediterranean Sea froze over.
In 1365 the Rhine was covered in ice for three months.
In 1407-1408, all Swiss lakes froze over.
In 1420 there was a terrible mortality in Paris from the cold; wolves ran into the city to devour the corpses lying unburied in the streets.
In 1468, wine in the cellars froze in Burgundy.
You can also often find references to how even Italian cities were littered with a thick layer of snow for months, how bells cracked in the cold when they were hit, how ice fettered fleets, how entire crops froze and an unprecedented famine began.
But from 1440 the climate began to warm.
Godunovsky famine in Russia
Europe is well, it is warmed by the Gulf Stream, even if it sometimes slows down its course. Russia was much less fortunate. Warm currents do not wash it, except for the north of the Kola Peninsula where the Gulf Stream reaches. And warm winds do not blow it, from them it is reliably closed by mountains. But cold - as much as you like, in the north, as you know, there are no mountains. Therefore, the Little Ice Age in Russia showed itself much more clearly than in Europe.
The cooling was accompanied by a sharp increase in the amount of precipitation: rain during the warm period and snow during the cold one. At the same time, the middle parts of Eurasia and Africa began to experience a catastrophic lack of water. Perhaps this is what led to the decline of the prosperous states of Central Asia with the cities of Bukhara, Samarkand, Khiva, Merv, etc. who became an easy victim of the Mongols.
It is safe to say that the Mongols came to Rus' when the climate was quite frosty in winter, even in the south, in the Kiev region, which allowed them to drag heavy siege weapons along the Dnieper. After the Mongol defeat, there was a long decline, so we know practically nothing about the climate in the 14th century - the first peak of the MLP. But I think the conditions were extremely difficult. Let us recall that when Dante was finishing his Divine Comedy in 1311, when the forerunners of the Renaissance were already drawing their pictures and sculpting sculptures, Ivan Kalita was just beginning to collect the land around Moscow under the Mongolian “roof”. Everything went very slowly, largely because of the cold.
In the 16th century, things got warmer. In any case, in Europe, where snowless winters have again become frequent. It seems that the weather has also warmed up in Russia, and the progressive reign of Vasily III and Ivan the Terrible can be connected with this. Moscow amazingly quickly made up for everything that had been lost under the Mongols. The territory of the Moscow kingdom increased 30 times. But from 1560 it became sharply cold again. We have received information that in the last years of his reign, the fairs on the ice of the Moskva River went on for half a year without the risk of failing anywhere. At the same time, Viking settlements in Greenland disappear. The oppression of serfdom intensifies, in 1581 Yuryev Day was canceled, the peasants could no longer move from landowner to landowner.
However, all this was a trifle in comparison with what happened in the 17th century - which became the coldest and, we note, the bloodiest, overtaking the 14th century in these two parameters. Russia entered it with a new tsar, Boris Godunov. His short reign saw the worst famine of 1601-1604. The winter of 1601 was protracted. Throughout the spring, until the end of July, there were almost continuous cold rains. On July 28 they passed into the snow. By the end of August - beginning of September, the rivers froze (in Europe, the Rhine, Thames, Seine froze, though a little later). Of course, there was no question of any serious harvest. In 1602, the weather was better and something was collected, and in 1603 and 1604. the scenario of 1601 was repeated. St. George's Day was even temporarily canceled, often the landowners simply let the peasants go to all four sides so that they themselves would look for food for themselves. Bread prices soared almost 100 times.
It is difficult to say how many died of starvation then, because no census was conducted. However, cannibalism flourished everywhere. I met the figure of 170 thousand dead only in Moscow - people flocked there for the free distribution of bread from the royal bins (this, as historians admit, was a mistake, it was impossible to gather hungry people in one place if there was not enough bread for everyone). If we recall that then 5-6 million lived in the Muscovite kingdom, it seems that the percentage loss was huge.
Again, think about it, because it was only 400 years ago. Not ten thousand, not a million, but only 400. Where is the guarantee that such a cold snap will not happen in the coming years? There is nothing sensational about it. After all, then, too, was preceded by warming. And how will hundreds of millions be fed, if then even the peasants could not feed themselves? There will not be enough imported products for anyone, and it’s not a fact that they will be delivered. And what guards will have to be posted near the food warehouses!
Naturally, then the people explained this as God's punishment for the impious reign of Godunov, who allegedly killed the anointed Tsarevich Dmitry. Soon (according to all the laws of mass thinking), rumors spread that the prince was actually alive, he is now on the Don (options - in Poland, in Lithuania) and will soon come to throw off the "worker tsar" (nickname Godunov). Dimitri soon arrived. At least three copies. The famine and mass pestilence made their "undertaking" much easier.
Russia withdrew from the Time of Troubles in 1613, although the gangs of robbers that had bred in huge numbers were destroyed only by 1621-22. At this time, a non-illusory horror began in Europe and led to consequences far more catastrophic than in Russia. In no case can they be attributed to the climate, but it also played an interesting role.
Maunder Low and the Peace of Westphalia
The 13th and 17th centuries were not only the coldest and bloodiest of the Little Ice Age, but also, as a result, were marked by a large population decline due to famine and disease. In the year of abnormal cold and the "black plague" (1348), up to 1/3 of the population of Europe died. In the XVII war, famine, disease and pestilence went on in an almost endless series. We have already spoken about the Godunov famine and unrest in Russia. Now it's Europe's turn. In 1618, due to a petty conflict between Catholics and Protestants, the bloodiest war in its history began - the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648). Now it is difficult to say from what then more died - directly from hostilities or from hunger, but the population of Germany alone decreased from 18 to 3.5 million. The country is virtually dead. After the end of the war, polygamy was allowed, but even with a high birth rate, it took the Germans almost 100 years to restore the numbers of 1618. It was then that Frederick II began his campaigns.
A description of the course of the war is beyond the scope of this article, but almost all Western historians admit that it ended not because someone defeated someone, but because there was simply no one to fight. Moreover, there was no one to plow and sow. Huge crowds of people, for unknown reasons, survived, went to the mountains and swamps. It was then that French cuisine was replenished with such goodies as slugs, frogs and oysters.
By the early 1640s, it became obvious that neither the League nor the Union would win the war. Since 1643, in the Westphalian cities of Münster and Osnabrück, the development of agreements began, later formalized in the hefty Westphalian Peace Treaty, which henceforth excluded the very occurrence of wars like the Thirty Years' War. The treaty was signed on October 23, 1648.
This, of course, looks like a formal coincidence, but 1648 was not only an abnormally cold year, but also the year when the so-called “Maunder Minimum” began, ironically coinciding with the reign of the “Sun King” Louis XIV (1643-1715). The Maunder minimum, named after the English astronomer Edward Maunder who discovered it, was characterized by an almost complete absence of solar activity (40-50 flares per year, instead of the usual 40-50 thousand). There are a number of theories (though not convincingly proven) that a slowdown in the rotation of the Sun was observed at this time. Of course, there is no reason to explain such a strong cooling only by a decrease in solar activity, but the fact remains. So far, we can neither prove nor disprove this connection.
One interesting hypothesis is connected with the Little Ice Age, of which I am a supporter. This hypothesis explains strange sounds in French, English and some Germanic languages, all these th, ng, burr r, nasal, palatal, guttural, etc. It is believed that from chronic vitamin deficiency in children, milk teeth almost immediately fell out and they learned to speak without teeth. Hence all these "pronounces", "grassing" and "pshekane". Those. people have been accustomed to speak this way for centuries and it has become part of the language norms, while in the southern countries, where food was more or less normal (Spain, Portugal, Italy, the Balkans), all sounds are pronounced very clearly. The weak side of the hypothesis is that Russia does not fit well into it, where the famine happened quite often, but the consonants are pronounced correctly.
At the beginning of the 19th century, the climate began to warm up, and by 1850 it settled on the parameters that have existed until our days - until the 70-80s of the 20th century. It is by this circumstance that many explain the sharp increase in the Aryan population in Europe and especially in Russia, where the cold is much more severe. Those. they didn’t give birth anymore, but they began to survive more. And because of the heat, and because of the decrease in the frequency of famine years, which in Russia until 1850 happened about once every 3 years. True, we also state that if the Aryan population in different countries has grown by 180-220%, then the Jewish population has grown by 800%! In the 20th century, it will define itself very clearly.
Colds and racial activity
In the Little Ice Age, despite the most difficult conditions of existence, despite famine, epidemics and plagues, the Aryans repelled the attacks of the Mongols and Turks, completed the construction of giant Gothic cathedrals, launched the Renaissance, discovered all unknown areas of land, and by the time it ended (1850) they captured the whole world, the whole globe. Why did it happen? Perhaps natural selection played a role, in the conditions of climatic extremes, the weak simply did not survive and no one was engaged in any “social program”.
In 1850-1950. the climate was stable and during this time the white race weakened. It would be a mistake to attribute everything to revolutions and world wars; in the 14th and 17th centuries, demographic catastrophes were much more serious and nothing. After all, the very thinking of whites has changed - foolishness, racial tolerance, liberalism, pacifism, sexual perversions have become the usual norm. The idea even visits me that the degradation of the thinking of the race has somewhat outpaced the warming of the climate. Perhaps if America in the 20th century had been the same as before the Civil War (and this is the first serious war since the end of the MLP), it would not have fought against Hitler, because remember that in the 19th century it was for Napoleon, not against. It is significant that 5 years after the end of the Second World War, global warming began, at first almost imperceptible, but from the 60s it was already clearly marked. At the same time, a population explosion begins in colored countries, whites lose all colonies, completely equalize colored people in rights, but since a holy place does not happen empty, colored people soon appear in white cities. First by the thousands, and now by the millions. Hitler predicted this, despite the fact that he did not know that warming would begin.
What do we have now? The warmer - the faster the colored ones multiply, the stronger their expansion into white areas. So far, nothing new has happened in history. Everything already happened. Many times. We talked about the Atlantic Optimum. Then the Arabs, Turks and Mongols actively multiplied, after which they successively<двигали>to Europe. They were beaten off by the so-called. the "first generation" of whites, those who lived from the end of the Roman Empire to the start of the MLP.
In principle, it is known about other cold snaps. And knowing their time, you can see how the races behaved. 5500 BC Holocene optimum. Vine and orchards in Sweden, Spanish climate in Germany, etc. Colored twigs come from the South, for the Sahara has dried up. The era of megaliths begins - 5500-2200 BC. Whites generally fought back, but coloreds seem to have left their mark on their genetics. I explain the greater number of racists among the southern European peoples and the Cro-Magnon sub-race precisely by the fact that they were once "infected" to one degree or another with colored blood. You know, like vaccinations - you need to infect something a little bit in order to develop immunity. Perhaps that is why there are no ideologues of racism among the representatives of the Nordic subrace. Those. they may be racists, but they did not move racism. For the same reason, the "Cro-Magnons" see the danger better than the Nords. They see her already when the Nord is not yet able to see her.
Cooling was observed in 700-100 years. BC. At this time, the Greeks repulsed the Persians, and Rome turned from a small town into a superpower. As soon as the warming began after that, Rome began to flood with colored people, and the Aryan element completely degraded. The warming lasted until about 300-450 years. AD and ended with the invasion of the Huns and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.
Another interesting feature. In the era of warming, whites began to move in the religious sphere. Megaliths and swastikas appeared in the epoch of Holocene optimum. Most likely, at the same time, “Votanic” religions arose glorifying the “golden age”, i.e. the one that was before the invasion of the colored (Wotan, Kronos, Saturn). In the warming era of Achaean Greece and the Trojan War, the cult of Zeus (Jupiter) and the Olympian gods in general arose. In the warm climate of the era of the Principate and Dominate, whites adopted Christianity. At the Atlantic Optimum, Catholicism and Orthodoxy arose. But the most rational religion, with the help of which the Anglo-Saxons took over the world - Protestantism - is just a product of the MLP. By the way, this is an interesting phenomenon, which has not yet been studied at all. National Socialism, we recall, is the product of Catholic ideologues (there are zero Nords among them) and Protestant practitioners (a huge percentage of Nords).
Cryoera and Thermoera
The warming in which we live, in fact, is a small thaw after a protracted Pleistocene glaciation that lasted 1.8 million years, during which glaciers covered all of Canada and reached the Great Lakes in the Western Hemisphere and the area where Kiev is now located in the Eastern Hemisphere. In other words, we live in a cryoera, in an era of glaciations followed by minor thaws. The latter ended around 11,000 BC, after which warming began, reaching a maximum by 5500 BC. (“Holocene optimum”). All subsequent cooling and warming were, in general, insignificant, but as we have seen, they may have influenced the development of many peoples, and even the development of the economy and agriculture - no doubt.
Can we influence the climate? Is it possible to create a climate weapon? In general, it is possible. For example, nuclear explosions made in the right places can raise such amounts of dust into the air that will make the atmosphere much less transparent, which will lead to a significant decrease in temperature. Modern technology (not even modern, but the one that was in the late 50s) allows you to create a nuclear device of almost any power. Let us recall the famous explosion on Novaya Zemlya, when a thermonuclear device was tested - "Tsar Bomba" or "Kuzkin's mother". They planned 116 MT, but they were afraid of the environmental consequences and reduced the capacity to 54 MT. This was enough to melt all the ice on two islands with a total length of 700 kilometers. The sound wave traveled around the globe. In 1962-63, oddities with the climate were observed in the USSR, there were crop failures, interruptions in bread began, and the first purchases of wheat were made abroad. Of course, we cannot attribute all this to the climate, but we emphasize once again that this is a very sensitive system with many connections. As soon as Lorentz discovered a strange attractor in 1963, the USSR, the USA and other nuclear states immediately signed a convention allowing bombs to be tested only underground in order to minimize the impact on the climate. And if, as Lorenz said, even the flapping of a butterfly's wings can affect the weather, is it really not affected by such explosions in any way?
Which is more likely - warming or cooling? It's hard to say, but let's remember that the Atlantic Optimum, the parameters of which we are approaching, gave impetus to the Little Ice Age. There are mathematical models that show that warming in the Northern Hemisphere just leads to a slowdown in the Gulf Stream. One thing can be said: a sharp warming is impossible in principle, but a sharp cooling is completely. We do not know for sure why ice ages roll periodically. But the fact that in the last geological epoch they clearly dominated warmings is beyond any doubt.
Pleistocene glacier in North America. 14-15 thousand years. BC. People of the modern species already existed and fought a hard struggle for existence. But not in America.
But let's talk about warmth. About thermo. In the history of the earth, there was a time of a completely warm climate over almost its entire surface, with the exception of West Antarctica, which was covered by a small glacier. We are talking about the late Triassic and early Jurassic periods. On Earth then there was one giant continent - Pangea, which was washed by one giant ocean - Panthalassa.
Here the total warm climate was explained by the following reason. In the equatorial zone, there was practically no continental surface; this led to the fact that in the hydrosphere (i.e., in Panthalassa) there was no heat transfer from the equatorial zone to high latitudes. It was carried out not by water, but by the atmosphere, as a result, even in the polar latitudes there were no anticyclones, and monsoon rains reached almost the poles, leveling the climate on land. The gigantic areas of Pangea were covered with humid forests, in which giant reptiles bred, and in the Ocean - a terrifying type of fish. The interior, on the other hand, was arid, perhaps even deserted. But it was warm everywhere. The climate began to get colder, albeit slightly, when the split of Pangea began - 225-200 million years ago. And 65 million years ago, at the end of the Cretaceous period, an asteroid with a diameter of about 10-100 kilometers collided with the Earth. Huge masses of dust thrown into the atmosphere led to the extinction of 80% of all life, including giant reptiles. Winter began, lasting several thousand years.
In connection with the results of the UN climate conference, REX IA expert Areg Dyushunts tried to figure out how many years we have left - five or less ...
At the very end of the year in Cancun (Mexico) the UN climate conference unexpectedly successfully ended. Both directions of negotiations - on the Kyoto Protocol and on long-term cooperation - ended successfully, but the main documents were adopted after the official end of the forum. As you know, the previous round with the participation of the top officials of the states ended in failure, in connection with which climate experts around the world did not particularly hope for success this time either. The conference participants confirmed the main goal of the human community in influencing the climate process - to prevent the average temperature on Earth from rising by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.
Apparently, the climate change taking place in the world and natural and man-made disasters seriously worried scientists, forcing them to make such a decision. Moreover, the predictions made five years ago were confirmed, and the world has no more time left to take decisive action against global warming and prevent a climate catastrophe. Even then, the opinion of most climate researchers agreed that these actions should be expressed in limiting carbon dioxide emissions, otherwise the Earth will be flooded by coastal cities and the extinction of half of the biological species.
The term of ten years left for the world for this was then determined by one of the leading American climate researchers James Hansen, who headed the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), speaking at a similar conference, dedicated to the study of climate change. "Droughts and heat waves will last longer, new hotspots of powerful hurricanes will appear, and about half of the species that exist today may disappear." According to Hansen, governments should have taken steps to limit carbon emissions and not allow average air temperatures to rise more than 1 degree Celsius. “I think we have a very short window of time in which we can deal with climate change… no more than ten years, that’s the maximum.” If countries continue to exist on the principle of hushing up problems, the average temperature in the world could rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius, and "we will get another planet," Hansen said. On this warmer planet, the glaciers will melt rapidly, causing sea levels to rise, potentially putting much of New York under water. Droughts and heat waves will last longer, new hotspots of powerful hurricanes will appear, and about half of the species now living may disappear.
Recently, in contrast, the opinion is often expressed that the degree of human influence on the climate does not exceed 2%, which means that the remaining 98% of the factors of change are either impossible to explain or refer exclusively to the “competence” of nature, regardless of human activity. As they point out, humanity can really influence the weather only by creating a greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, and he himself is only one of the causes of predicted global warming. A controversial issue, it is indisputable only that even a minimal impact can lead to disastrous consequences, therefore, we must try to reduce the negative impact of human activity on nature to a minimum.
Whether or not the conference participants will be able to fulfill their increased obligations in terms of influencing society to keep the temperature down, it will become clear, perhaps, only by 2050. Today, everyone is concerned about the question of how it is possible to rationally explain what is happening with nature now? And with this it is already completely unclear, since there are no less points of view on this than there are specialists dealing with this problem. Only in one of their opinions in the conclusions do they agree, which can also be characterized by a single phrase: "something is definitely happening." And the Internet is increasingly filled with publications where different opinions are expressed in this regard, but they also come down to the same thing in the end: scientists do not know what exactly is happening with the planet, and therefore cannot predict the development of events with a sufficient degree of probability. for the near future.
In this, the Center for Research on the Development of Disasters (CRED) has a certain advantage, where unique statistics of natural disasters on our planet are kept. And it is visually perceived, displayed on the charts of the number of disasters and the number of deaths from 1900 to 2009, coinciding with the data of the Swiss insurance group Swiss Re, according to which the number of victims of natural disasters in the world in 2010 amounted to a record figure of 260 thousand people. And this is the highest level since 1976, 17 times higher than in 2009. In Russia, the “excessive” mortality for July-August amounted to 55,736 people.
In the infamous Catastrophe-2010 top-list, Russia, with record heat caused by an anticyclone that hung over the region from mid-June until almost the end of August, occupies one of the first places. And yet, the earthquake in Haiti (more than 220 thousand dead) was the most devastating. Also, statistics include hurricanes in Central America, floods in China, India, Pakistan, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia to the most destructive cataclysms of the year.
Today it is clear to everyone that the avalanche-like growth of natural disasters is a problem that goes far beyond the scope of a purely scientific discussion. Those who are washed away, swept away, shaken, frozen and roasted more and more from year to year, can no longer be satisfied with hypothetical warming forecasts for decades to come. Against this backdrop, the success of Cancun seems to be just idle theorizing, too far from reality. People also want to know what surprises, and even more troubles, they can expect in the near future from the weather. But it is precisely with the forecasting of the vagaries of nature in the world in general and in Russia in particular that things are not brilliant. In any case, the interviewed foreign and domestic experts do not make such forecasts that could be considered as the most probable. Forecasters of Roshydromet are firm only in the fact that there is no way to accurately predict the weather more than three days in advance. But even for this period, which we have had to make sure of more than once, it is risky to predict in our country. Moreover, this applies to such a matter as long-term strategic forecasts. It is not for nothing that the last published document on this topic, which is freely available on the Runet, dates back to 2005. Apparently, Roshydromet attracted all possible resources to its compilation, it contains a detailed analysis of possible situations with recommendations on countermeasures. There is not only one thing that is the most important in forecasts - specifics. But this is a problem not only for Russian scientists.
Around that time, a well-known report was published that the world was on the verge of a climate catastrophe, and a special commission formed from scientists, politicians and businessmen at the initiative of the British government made the conclusion. She also came to the conclusion that in ten years or less, given the pace of environmental pollution, a global catastrophe will begin in the world.
The commission's report, entitled "In the Face of Climate Change," was intended primarily for people who make decisions in all areas of life, especially heads of state. For the first time in a document of this level, a critical indicator of global warming parameters was named - in the form of a temperature value, while reaching the indicated bifurcation point, irreversible changes will begin in the world. The consequences of this can be the most tragic: large-scale agricultural problems, lack of water, droughts, an increase in diseases, rising sea levels, the disappearance of forests, and this is not an exhaustive list. The number of other cataclysms will also increase, while rapid global warming will lead to the complete melting of the continental ice of Greenland and the disappearance of the Gulf Stream. Further, only an environmental planetary catastrophe that threatens the existence of the entire human race ... In this regard, Stephen Byers, the former Minister of Transportation, who headed the commission, noted: "This is an environmental time bomb with a timer on."
The report called on the G8 countries to double spending on low-carbon technology research by 2025 by 2010. The commission also advised the leaders of these countries to agree that a quarter of their electricity was generated using renewable sources, believing that it is necessary to form a climate group, which should include developing countries, primarily India and China, where carbon dioxide emissions are constantly growing. .
It was then that scientists named a critical figure - an increase in temperature by 2 ° C, moreover, in comparison with 1750. This year was taken as a starting point precisely because it marked the start of the Industrial Revolution, a year marked by the first time that human activity began to have a negative impact on the climate. Since then, the average world temperature has already increased by 0.8 ° C and everything continues to grow, and the world is separated from the critical point by no more than 1 ° C. In addition, data on the level of concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere seem no less ominous, when a certain level of saturation with it is reached, a temperature increase of 2 ° C will become inevitable - this is 400 millionths of a volume. And the amount of this gas in the air was 379 parts, annually it increases, as predicted, by another 2. Thus, the level of 400 millionths of the volume will be reached by 2015, if not earlier
The world spends huge amounts of money on the study of the Earth. These are both ground stations and orbital vehicles. By monitoring the same Earth from orbit, Europeans are ahead of the rest of the planet. The European Space Agency (ESA) operates a whole range of tools for various purposes, and each of them, to one degree or another, can work on the prediction of climate change and weather forecasts. The constellation of orbiters transmits more than 100 terabytes of data to Earth a year, three thousand projects use this data for their purposes on Earth. Of the total ESA budget of €3,744.7 million, 18.9%, the largest portion of the budget, is spent on studying the planet from space. Its Center for Earth Observation (ESRIN) operates as many as seven active satellites and plans to launch as many more.
However, all these impressive possibilities cause only annoying bewilderment, forcing to ask a reasonable question: how, with such volumes of information and resources involved, scientists only shrug their shoulders when accurate forecasting is required even for a short period of time? Maybe the addressed information does not reach the specialists who are able to help? After all, ESRIN says that satellite data is managed by project operators who distribute it to interested individuals and organizations. It should be understood that these data are available, but their widespread use is often hindered by financial or political complications. As an excuse, the Center emphasizes that data from the GMES program (Global Monitoring and Environmental Protection) will be (with some restrictions) freely available. And when? The main tool of the program - the Sentinel spacecraft (five satellites) - is being prepared for launch in 2012-2014. Well, the only thing left to do is wait...
Maybe you shouldn't wait? Otherwise, you can wait for something completely different - trouble. After all, it would seem, who today does not know that climate problems and catastrophe predictions are without exception global? And no country, no matter how powerful it is, is currently unable to cover the entire spectrum of climate problems and threats in terms of research and forecasts? And it turns out that even standing on the verge of a serious crisis, countries and organizations cannot agree on even much less sensitive issues than the exchange of expensive information. What is clearly seen just on the example of climate conferences, where decisions, if they are made, are often reluctantly, with a creak. And the authorities of other countries generally distance themselves from environmental and climate issues, hoping either in Russian for "maybe", or that there will be enough for their lifetime. Therefore, the significance of Cancun lies precisely in the fact that it showed that even they began to think. However, the world has not yet realized the seriousness of the coming natural anomalies. It remains really only to wait - some events that the next two years will bring us ...
When writing the article, the materials of "NG-Online" were used.
Droughts and hurricanes threaten the population and entire industries. Climate change threatens everyone on Earth. But for some countries, the level of danger is such that it puts them on the brink of destruction. The University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index and climate risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft have released an annual ranking of the nations most vulnerable to climate change.
Bangladesh
Climate change will see Bangladesh, one of the world's most populous countries with the least arable land per capita, flooded by river floods, hit by more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and extremely hot temperatures. Floods, tropical cyclones, storms and droughts are already becoming more frequent in coastal regions, according to the European Union's Global Climate Change Alliance.
According to Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasin, the country's population has experienced 50% more than average rainfall this year. This fact had serious consequences for agriculture.
According to the Verisk Maplecroft Climate Vulnerability Index and the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, Chad ranks 1st and 2nd respectively.
Chad is one of the poorest countries in Africa, so it is not able to cope with climate disasters. Extreme weather events in the country could take the form of more severe droughts or devastating floods, according to the Global Climate Change Alliance. Then the losses in agriculture, animal husbandry, fishing and health care will be huge.
A clear symbol of climate change in the region is Lake Chad, which has shrunk by one-twentieth since 1963, according to the UN.
Nigerian President Mohammed Buhari said the experience of countries that border Lake Chad illustrates the challenges humanity faces. They must be overcome without further delay.
Pacific Island States
Low-lying Pacific island nations could go under water if the issue of climate change is not addressed in time.
But the island of Fiji is already facing its own climate disaster. The country has faced outbreaks of diseases caused by climate change, such as red typhus, dengue fever, leptospirosis, and acute intestinal infection.
Niger
According to the US Geological Survey, Niger is considered one of the most vulnerable countries because of its agricultural sector, which employs 80% of the population. In addition, the geopolitical situation exacerbates the situation, namely the risks associated with domestic and regional extremism. In one way or another, all these factors affect agricultural productivity and, in turn, food security.
Resources are tight in Niger, as the country has the highest birth rate in the world at 7.6 children per woman. The population is projected to double by 2031.
Haiti
Haiti is a prime example of how the combination of physical impact and socio-economic conditions can lead to extreme vulnerability to climate change. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the overexploitation of forest, soil and water resources, which will be exacerbated in a changing climate.
Haiti is in the zone of cyclones and, according to forecasts, due to climate change, hurricanes will become more destructive and their number will increase.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Climate change will hit the agriculture sector in the Democratic Republic of the Congo hard and will also lead to the spread of disease.
In a country where 90% of people live off agriculture, climate change will lead to more intense rainfall and flooding, as well as shifting and erosion in the Congo River region. The country can expect the opposite effect in the south, where the Katanga region will face a terrible drought and the rainy season will be reduced by at least two months by 2020.
Malaria, cardiovascular disease, and water-borne diseases will also increase as a result of climate warming.
Afghanistan
The UN has recognized Afghanistan as one of the most climate-dependent countries in the world and in 2012 implemented a $6 million climate change initiative. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of droughts, floods and turning Afghanistan into a desert.
Central African Republic
The Central African Republic is one of the largest countries in the world. After the overthrow of its leader, strong civil unrest began, and with climate change, living conditions will become even worse. The country's agriculture is at the "handicraft" level. The lack of irrigation systems makes it dependent on the rainy seasons.
Meanwhile, recurring floods in the Central African Republic are costing $7 million annually.
Guinea-Bissau
Climate change will have major implications for Guinea-Bissau, which is predominantly low-lying coastal areas and exposed to intense sunlight. The country's dependence on rain for its agriculture is already becoming a problem.
Rains become more and more irregular in space and time, the phenomenon is accompanied by an increase in temperature, resulting in low agricultural yields, soil degradation.
And these are not all countries that are at risk.
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“Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change” is the name of a report whose authors predict the occurrence and severity of natural disasters such as floods, forest fires and drought in Europe in the next 70 years.
Southern Europe will be hardest hit, with the report arguing that countries such as Portugal and Spain will face such an increase in extreme weather events that, according to scientist Bjørn Samset, this will have a significant impact on the economies of both countries.
“Southern and Western Europe will suffer the worst in the coming decades. They will experience a mixture of heat waves and coastal flooding. Climate problems there could become so big that they affect the whole of Europe, as food production in these countries becomes very difficult. This will also affect the economy,” says Samset.
Centenary Flood - more often
In the 2080s, Southern Europe will experience periods of drought and extreme heat every year, the authors of the report write. Heat waves, which they call "centenary heat waves", have a 70% chance of occurring in Southern Europe every year. A "centenary drought" can be expected every year with a probability of 60%. Much more wildfires, floods and storms are also expected in countries like Spain and Portugal in the 2080s.
Samset acknowledges that the report may scare many:
“The report is a very sad read. We know what happens when there is a lot of rain and it is very hot, and this shows how bad the climate can be in Europe,” he says.
The authors of the report used a range of techniques to predict extreme weather events. Samset, a researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, says the report was produced "in a serious and highly competent research environment."
Scientists are trying to predict the frequency and severity of natural disasters in Europe in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. To facilitate the task, the continent was divided into five parts. Projections for the 2050s reflect the international community's goal of limiting global mean temperature rise to a maximum of two degrees above pre-industrial levels.
There will be more floods in the north, and the heat will be more frequent
We in northern Europe need to prepare for floods and heat. According to the authors of the report, the chance to survive the "centenary flood" annually by 2080 will increase by 20%. There is a high probability (35%) that what we in northern Europe today call the hottest period of the century will occur every year in the 2080s.
“In the north, an increase in heat and an increase in the number of large forest fires is expected. The number of dry periods will also decrease significantly,” explains Samset.
Simply put, the trend is the same: Europe should, as early as 2020, and especially from 2050 onwards, expect a significant increase in heat waves, cold spells, droughts, forest fires, floods and storms. Natural phenomena will also increase in strength, and in Samset's opinion, we should expect that due to climate change, some parts of Europe will be "taken out of the game" from time to time.
However, he is not pessimistic about the future of the continent.
“There will be a lot of changes in our daily life, and therefore it is important to start planning infrastructure in the north now. Local authorities, for example, should not build housing in areas that would be prone to flooding. I think that we can cope with climate change, but it will require a lot of resources from the whole society.
"Serious people"
The situation in Norway and Northern Europe will be better than in the southern regions of the continent. But the report predicts significant climate change in the north as well: we should expect heat waves, wildfires and floods every year. There is a 40% chance that Northern Europe will experience a "centenary heat wave" every year, according to information analyzed by scientists.
The problem is that these climate changes will occur at the same time that society will have to move away from fossil fuels. The sum of these two challenges creates a very difficult situation for the use of resources in Europe - says Samset in the end.
Many are rather skeptical about climate research, assuring that there is a certain underlying reason.
I have always wondered: what could be someone's personal interest when predicting what the climate will be like in 100 years. Research was conducted by serious people who took information from many other specialists. I think that we will survive all this, but only if we don’t close on these forecasts now and pretend that nothing terrible will happen, Samset says about climate change.
Western Europe, namely France, the Benelux countries and Germany, must prepare for floods and heat waves almost every year since the 2020s. Somewhere around 2080, the probability of an annual "centenary flood" will increase by 30%, the probability of a "centenary drought" will increase by 40%.
“Something described in the report will happen no matter what. The goal is not to exceed the so-called "two-degree barrier", but even then we know for sure that there will be more natural disasters. When I give presentations to students in high schools, I strive to convey to them the following: no matter how they build their lives, climate will be on the agenda for as long as they are destined to live.
The territory of Japan is 377,944 square kilometers, which is equal to the territory of, for example, a state such as Germany. In terms of population, Japan is among the top ten countries in the world, with about 127 million people living on its territory.
Rice. 1. Map population density per square kilometer by prefecture (2009).
The Japanese islands are part of the Pacific volcanic ring of fire. To put it simply: they are located at the junctions of tectonic plates. In the last century, geologists Toyokichi Harada and Edmund Naumann discovered a giant fracture in the earth's crust 150 kilometers southwest of Tokyo and named it Fossa Magna, which in Russian means the Great Ditch. Those. the fault line literally cuts the country's territory in half. Below on the tectonic map you can see what is at stake:
Rice. 2. Tectonic map of the Japanese islands. Fault lines of lithospheric plates are marked with different colors.
Japan is a unique country with a wonderful culture and wonderful people, unfortunately, it suffers frequent crashes due to the peculiarities of the climate. Let's look at three significant events in the history of the country's climatology:
September 1, 1923 the largest Kanto earthquake of magnitude 8.3 on the Richter scale occurs. In Tokyo and Yokogamo, about 143 thousand people died, about a million people were left homeless, 542 thousand people are still considered missing.
January 17, 1995 earthquake in Koba (magnitude 7.3). 6434 people died.
March 11, 2011 one of the largest earthquakes in the history of Japan with a magnitude of 9 points hit off the northeast coast. The earthquake triggered a devastating tsunami. Miyagi Prefecture and the city of Sendai suffered the most, where the wave height reached 10 m. From March 11 to March 25, 2011, a wave of earthquakes of magnitude from 1 to 9 occurred in Japan. According to eyewitnesses, many cities were shaking almost constantly. All these earthquakes caused several powerful waves that hit Japan, ranging in height from 3 to a record 10 meters. The Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant was hit by waves, as a result of which an accident occurred on it, which became the most serious radiation accident since the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. These events are called the biggest crisis in Japan since the Second World War.
Often, losing valuable time that can be used for nationwide unity in solving acute climate problems, tragic consequences come that affect, first of all, the fate and life of a particular person. As the first foundation of ALLATRA “VALUE OF LIFE” says: “The highest value in this world is human life. The life of any person must be protected as one's own, because although it is fleeting, it gives everyone a chance to increase their main value - their inner spiritual wealth, the only thing that opens the way to true spiritual immortality for the Personality. Increase the main value of your life every day, for a person is suddenly mortal. Strive for perfection, match your personal choice and activity with the main meaning of your existence - the spiritual and moral transformation of yourself, serving the highest universal spiritual values.
Japan is a country in a vast world. Planet Earth is a single organism. All processes, natural phenomena are interconnected. Therefore, it is impossible to ignore the general climate changes that are taking place in the world. The most important starting point was the report "":
“One of the most important international problems of the 21st century is global climate change. Of particular concern is the general rapid growth in the dynamics of cataclysms, which has been observed in recent decades. Today, there is a great risk of misunderstanding and underestimation of all factors and the scale of the influence of various cosmic and geological processes on global climate change on Earth.”
After analyzing the available disparate information that is in the bowels of the Internet, one can see the same trend - the number and dynamics of climate change is increasing. So:
Rice. 3. Seismic activity in the area of the Japanese Islands with a magnitude above 5.0 in the period from 01/01/1977 to 01/31/2016 according to the Earthquake Research Institute of The University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)
Rice. 4. Natural disasters for 2015 in the world according to Munich RE.
Attention is drawn to the increased density of natural disasters in the area of the Japanese Islands and the entire Ring of Fire, as well as the United States.
Rice. 5. Volcanic activity from 1611 to 2014.
Rice. 6. Graph of the number of tsunamis from 1990 to 2013.
Rice. 7. Graph of the number of earthquakes in the world from 1900 to 2008 with a magnitude of 6 to 8 points according to the USGS.
As can be seen from the graphs, the climate situation in the world and especially in Japan is extremely serious and, returning to the scientific report ALLATRA SCIENCE back in 2014 “ ”:
“The probability that in the next 10 years due to major eruptions and earthquakes the Japanese archipelago and life on it can be destroyed is 70%. And the probability that this will happen within the next 18 years is 99%.
Given the geographical location of Japan, this country is at the forefront of all the processes associated with climate change that are taking place in the world. Here is what an eyewitness from Japan, Vlad, says about this. We invite you to watch the release of the program “Climate through the eyes of eyewitnesses”. Tsunami threat in Japan. Earthquake 7.4. November 22, 2016.
And the most important thing is what is happening now in 2016, outside the window is November, and while this material is being written, edited, natural disasters continue to occur in Japan:
November 2, 2016
: An earthquake of magnitude 4.9 was recorded in the northeast of Japan, officials of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said on Nov. 2 Agencia EFE.
The earthquake hit at 7:37 am local time. The epicenter was located off the coast of Fukushin Prefecture at a depth of 20 km, JMA officials said.
