Have you noticed how lately everyone has been talking about the so-called. imminent "global end"? And if I met such conversations only on the Internet, I would not pay any attention to them. But here's the thing - I hear them more and more often from people who in my layouts were considered very far from anything, in other words, their interests were limited to work, beer, vodka and "cool television series."

Those who are, as it were, smarter, are trying to imagine the contours of this very “end”, and the smarter a person considers himself, the more complex designs he invents. But if under<концом>keep in mind the response of nature to the chaos that has already been arranged by homo sapiens, then we can definitely say that its formula will be very simple, because nature always reacts according to the simplest, and therefore the most energetically beneficial scheme. Those. when the “end” happens, those who remain alive and retain the ability to analyze will be surprised for a long time how simply and effectively everything happened!

Now I plan to talk about such a concept as climate. Have you noticed that the climate is changing? I can say that even 30 years ago it was completely different. For example, in our area (Northern Black Sea region), winters were colder and more stable, but summer came quickly. For example, on March 10, there could still be frost and snow, and on April 20, people were already swimming in the sea and sunbathing. Those who are 70-80 years old tell how in the 30-40s there were long snowy winters and very long warm autumns.

Now everything is different. Except for the abnormally cold winter of 2005-2006. and the non-standard winter of 2002-2003, it can be said that since 1996 there have been no winters as such. Autumn turned into spring. There were winters when the grass was fresh green all the time. Over the past 5 years, we have broken all temperature records, not summer ones (which is not so interesting), but winter ones. So in January 2005 we had up to +16, in February 2007 +17, and in December 2001 +14.

ATTRACTOR AND PHASE TRAJECTORIES

So, winter 2006/2007. was unusually warm. But the winter of 2005/2006 is very cold. At the same time, very few absolute records for high / low temperatures were set. Those. it was warmer on a particular day, although if we take the average temperature for winter, then yes, it is the warmest in the last 50 years.
Let's take a typical city in the middle lane. Suppose, over the past 100 years of observations, it has been established that the maximum temperature on January 20 was in 1938 and reached +11 degrees. And the minimum - in 1984 and dropped to -38 degrees. All other values ​​noted for 100 years fell within these limits.
So, the current phase trajectory is the weather. The weather is what we have now. It may be different, but it always fits into strictly defined norms. For example, in Moscow now (August 18) it can be +9 degrees. This is not quite usual for August, but it fits into the norm. This was the temperature. But -25, well, it can’t, more precisely, theoretically it can, but then it’s appropriate to talk about a catastrophe. The final state of all phase trajectories (in relation to the weather - for a yearly cycle) is called an attractor. The attractor is the climate. An attractor is a range of values. He, unlike the weather, is always stable. Those. The weather is what is now, at this moment in time. And climate is what<вообще>, which is always. It is appropriate to ask the question:<а какая погода в Париже будет завтра>? And they will answer it for you, and quite accurately. But to the question<какая погода будет в Париже через неделю>so you can't really answer. Of course, you can say that there will most likely be no frost, as well as a heat of 50 degrees, but it’s impossible to say what the wind strength will be, whether it will rain. We can give a more or less accurate forecast for 3 days, no more.

For a very long time, people could not understand what exactly prevents us from writing forecasts for months or even years ahead. It was believed that we simply could not calculate everything. Only with the introduction of computer technology and the ability to process a huge amount of data, the issue was clarified. In 1963. This was done by the recently deceased University of Massachusetts meteorologist Edward Lorenz. He, studying particular solutions of the Navier-Stokes system of equations describing the movement of convection air flows, showed that the point is not even that it is impossible to find an exact solution, but that this very solution is unusually sensitive to initial conditions.

The joint solution of these three quite simple and uniquely solvable (individually) equations as a result always represented a dynamic chaos with a finite forecast horizon, i.e. a time where the future is unambiguously determined by the past. And the whole family of phase trajectories (i.e. possible weather values)<закручивалось>into a finite region, which he called a chaotic or strange attractor.

That is why the weather is basically impossible to predict even in the medium term. Those. if you set a wind speed of 5.2 m/s and a time of 1 day you will get one result, and if 5.21 m/s and a time of 5 days you may get a dramatically different result.

A.F. Ioffe in his lectures gave an example showing how much even the smallest perturbations begin to influence if we need high measurement accuracy (ie, maximum information). Namely, this is what is needed to predict the weather.

“For greater clarity, imagine a hypothetical situation where predicting the evolution of a system one day ahead requires knowledge of the initial conditions with an accuracy of 10^-3, two days with an accuracy of 10^-6, three days with an accuracy of 10^-9, and etc. In this situation, the prediction time increases in an arithmetic progression, and the accuracy of setting the initial conditions increases geometrically. In order to predict 100 days ahead, an already unthinkable accuracy is required - 10^-300! (i.e. you need to know the original values ​​​​with an accuracy of 300 decimal places - MAdeB). Even if our instruments could make such measurements, for example, of temperature and pressure, necessary for weather forecasting, then the disturbance introduced by the flapping of the wings of an ordinary butterfly would far exceed the effect associated with the inaccuracy of these measurements (or, in other words, in this situation for a long-term weather forecast, it would be necessary to take into account all the butterflies living on Earth at the present time). In this case, despite the deterministic description of the process, a statistical, probabilistic approach is needed for long-term forecasts.”

Thus, for a strange attractor, two close trajectories will eventually cease to be close. This means that no matter how accurately the initial data is measured, the error will become large over time and, therefore, the behavior of the system over long time intervals cannot be predicted. This phenomenon has been called<эффектом бабочки>. The strange attractor of Lorenz just looks like a butterfly, maybe that's where the name comes from. In other words, the flapping of a butterfly's wings somewhere in Texas can cause floods in India, cyclones in Greenland, and drought in Ethiopia. It’s another matter that we won’t be able to accurately track this, but the fact remains that minor impacts can give rise to catastrophic consequences.

But the stability of the attractor does not mean that it will exist forever. It can collapse, and even abruptly, or it can gradually change. Now we will talk about how the climate on earth changed during the tracked historical epoch.

II.
Little Ice Age

Now everyone is talking about warming, and most attribute it to the environment, in particular to greenhouse gas emissions, but even now we are not even close to the Neo-Atlantic optimum, which was established in Europe in 900-1100 (the upper age varies in different sources). The warming itself began around the time of the fall of the Western Roman Empire. During the optimum period viticulture flourished even in England and Scotland. Orchards flourished there. The northern regions of Russia, for example, the shores of the White Sea, were covered with broad-leaved forests. Optimal moisture favored agriculture, which is why feudal exploitation was quite mild. There was enough for everyone. It was then that the white race greatly increased in numbers and gained strength. It was then that a population explosion apparently occurred among the Nordic tribes of Scandinavia, which led to the expansion of the Vikings throughout Europe and the discovery of Iceland by them (<ледяного острова>), Greenland (<Зеленого Острова>— now it is never green). According to the analysis of tree rings, bottom sediments, etc. it has been established that when the Vikings explored the coast of Greenland, the temperature there ranged from +10 degrees in July to -7 in January. Around 1000, the Vikings began to explore the east coast of North America.

This was probably one of the best periods in the life of the race, which is why we know so little about it.

But the thermal idyll came to an end, and the most interesting thing is that it came quite quickly, a maximum of a few decades. The so-called. "Little Ice Age" (MLA).

Scientists are still arguing what exactly had such a negative impact on the climate? A popular version is that the Gulf Stream is slowing down. May be. But the Gulf Stream begins in the Caribbean Sea, and this is a climatically unstable region. Now, almost every year, we hear about catastrophic "El Niño hurricanes" sweeping away everything in their path. But this is now, when global observations are being made. What was in the Caribbean then we do not know, perhaps the slowdown was caused by a decrease in solar activity. The Gulf Stream carries an amount of water equal to three thousand such rivers as the Volga in its lower reaches. It is thanks to him that one can live in Europe in general. Petersburg is located on the 60th parallel, where 5 million people live. And quite glamorous Stockholm from Helsinki. In the southern hemisphere, at this latitude, no one lives except for penguins. On the eastern side of Eurasia, on the same parallel, is Chukotka, where several tens of thousands of people live in yurts. Murmansk is located on the 68th parallel, even penguins do not live on it in the Southern Hemisphere. And where is the guarantee that the Gulf Stream will not slow down in the next couple of years? After all, the smallest factors can play a role here.

Of course, if the Gulf Stream then slowed down, then just a little bit, because the system is too inert. But the consequences were simply catastrophic. Europe was saved perhaps only because almost the entire population was engaged in agriculture. Now there will be no such lava.

There were 2 "peaks" of MLP - XIII-XIV and XVII centuries. Now we will talk about the first, about the XIII-XIV century. Orchards and vineyards froze out not only in England and Scotland, but in northern Germany. In winter, European rivers were stably fettered by water, which then greatly facilitated the movement of the Mongols, so they made all their campaigns in winter. Even the mouth of the Nile froze several times. Alexander Nevsky staged his Battle on the Ice on April 5, 1242, and the ice completely withstood the heavy cavalry of the Teutonic Knights.

Here are typical "summaries" that have come down to us since that time:

In 1010-1011, frosts fettered the Turkish coast of the Black Sea. Terrible cold reached Africa, where the lower reaches of the Nile River were covered with ice.
In 1210-1211, the rivers Po and Rhone froze. In Venice, wagon trains traveled across the frozen Adriatic Sea.
In 1322, the Baltic Sea was covered with such a thick layer of ice that sledges were driven from Lübeck in Denmark to the shores of Pomerania.
In 1316, all the bridges in Paris were torn down by ice.
In 1326, the entire Mediterranean Sea froze over.
In 1365 the Rhine was covered in ice for three months.
In 1407-1408, all Swiss lakes froze over.
In 1420 there was a terrible mortality in Paris from the cold; wolves ran into the city to devour the corpses lying unburied in the streets.
In 1468, wine in the cellars froze in Burgundy.

You can also often find references to how even Italian cities were littered with a thick layer of snow for months, how bells cracked in the cold when they were hit, how ice fettered fleets, how entire crops froze and an unprecedented famine began.
But from 1440 the climate began to warm.

Godunovsky famine in Russia

Europe is well, it is warmed by the Gulf Stream, even if it sometimes slows down its course. Russia was much less fortunate. Warm currents do not wash it, except for the north of the Kola Peninsula where the Gulf Stream reaches. And warm winds do not blow it, from them it is reliably closed by mountains. But cold - as much as you like, in the north, as you know, there are no mountains. Therefore, the Little Ice Age in Russia showed itself much more clearly than in Europe.

The cooling was accompanied by a sharp increase in the amount of precipitation: rain during the warm period and snow during the cold one. At the same time, the middle parts of Eurasia and Africa began to experience a catastrophic lack of water. Perhaps this is what led to the decline of the prosperous states of Central Asia with the cities of Bukhara, Samarkand, Khiva, Merv, etc. who became an easy victim of the Mongols.

It is safe to say that the Mongols came to Rus' when the climate was quite frosty in winter, even in the south, in the Kiev region, which allowed them to drag heavy siege weapons along the Dnieper. After the Mongol defeat, there was a long decline, so we know practically nothing about the climate in the 14th century - the first peak of the MLP. But I think the conditions were extremely difficult. Let us recall that when Dante was finishing his Divine Comedy in 1311, when the forerunners of the Renaissance were already drawing their pictures and sculpting sculptures to the fullest, Ivan Kalita was just beginning to collect the land around Moscow under the Mongolian “roof”. Everything went very slowly, largely because of the cold.

In the 16th century, things got warmer. In any case, in Europe, where snowless winters have again become frequent. It seems that the weather has also warmed up in Russia, and the progressive reign of Vasily III and Ivan the Terrible can be connected with this. Moscow amazingly quickly made up for everything that had been lost under the Mongols. The territory of the Moscow kingdom increased 30 times. But from 1560 it became sharply cold again. We have received information that in the last years of his reign, the fairs on the ice of the Moskva River went on for half a year without the risk of failing anywhere. At the same time, Viking settlements in Greenland disappear. The oppression of serfdom intensifies, in 1581 Yuryev Day was canceled, the peasants could no longer move from landowner to landowner.

However, all this was a trifle in comparison with what happened in the 17th century - which became the coldest and, we note, the bloodiest, overtaking the 14th century in these two parameters. Russia entered it with a new tsar, Boris Godunov. His short reign saw the worst famine of 1601-1604. The winter of 1601 was protracted. Throughout the spring, until the end of July, there were almost continuous cold rains. On July 28 they passed into the snow. By the end of August - beginning of September, the rivers froze (in Europe, the Rhine, Thames, Seine froze, though a little later). Of course, there was no question of any serious harvest. In 1602, the weather was better and something was collected, and in 1603 and 1604. the scenario of 1601 was repeated. St. George's Day was even temporarily canceled, often the landowners simply let the peasants go to all four sides so that they themselves would look for food for themselves. Bread prices soared almost 100 times.

It is difficult to say how many died of starvation then, because no census was conducted. However, cannibalism flourished everywhere. I met the figure of 170 thousand dead only in Moscow - people flocked there for the free distribution of bread from the royal bins (this, as historians admit, was a mistake, it was impossible to gather hungry people in one place if there was not enough bread for everyone). If we recall that then 5-6 million lived in the Muscovite kingdom, it seems that the percentage loss was huge.

Again, think about it, because it was only 400 years ago. Not ten thousand, not a million, but only 400. Where is the guarantee that such a cold snap will not happen in the coming years? There is nothing sensational about it. After all, then, too, was preceded by warming. And how will hundreds of millions be fed, if then even the peasants could not feed themselves? There will not be enough imported products for anyone, and it’s not a fact that they will be delivered. And what guards will have to be posted near the food warehouses!

Naturally, then the people explained this as God's punishment for the impious reign of Godunov, who allegedly killed the anointed Tsarevich Dmitry. Soon (according to all the laws of mass thinking), rumors spread that the prince was actually alive, he is now on the Don (options - in Poland, in Lithuania) and will soon come to throw off the "worker tsar" (nickname Godunov). Dimitri soon arrived. At least three copies. The famine and mass pestilence made their "undertaking" much easier.

Russia withdrew from the Time of Troubles in 1613, although the gangs of robbers that had bred in huge numbers were destroyed only by 1621-22. At this time, a non-illusory horror began in Europe and led to consequences far more catastrophic than in Russia. In no case can they be attributed to the climate, but it also played an interesting role.

Maunder Low and the Peace of Westphalia

The 13th and 17th centuries were not only the coldest and bloodiest of the Little Ice Age, but also, as a result, were marked by a large population decline due to famine and disease. In the year of abnormal cold and the "black plague" (1348), up to 1/3 of the population of Europe died. In the XVII war, famine, disease and pestilence went on in an almost endless series. We have already spoken about the Godunov famine and unrest in Russia. Now it's Europe's turn. In 1618, due to a petty conflict between Catholics and Protestants, the bloodiest war in its history began - the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648). Now it is difficult to say from what then more died - directly from hostilities or from hunger, but the population of Germany alone decreased from 18 to 3.5 million. The country is virtually dead. After the end of the war, polygamy was allowed, but even with a high birth rate, it took the Germans almost 100 years to restore the numbers of 1618. It was then that Frederick II began his campaigns.

A description of the course of the war is beyond the scope of this article, but almost all Western historians admit that it ended not because someone defeated someone, but because there was simply no one to fight. Moreover, there was no one to plow and sow. Huge crowds of people, for unknown reasons, survived, went to the mountains and swamps. It was then that French cuisine was replenished with such goodies as slugs, frogs and oysters.

By the early 1640s, it became obvious that neither the League nor the Union would win the war. Since 1643, in the Westphalian cities of Münster and Osnabrück, the development of agreements began, later formalized in the hefty Westphalian Peace Treaty, which henceforth excluded the very occurrence of wars like the Thirty Years' War. The treaty was signed on October 23, 1648.

This, of course, looks like a formal coincidence, but 1648 was not only an abnormally cold year, but also the year when the so-called “Maunder Minimum” began, ironically coinciding with the reign of the “Sun King” Louis XIV (1643-1715). The Maunder minimum, named after the English astronomer Edward Maunder who discovered it, was characterized by an almost complete absence of solar activity (40-50 flares per year, instead of the usual 40-50 thousand). There are a number of theories (though not convincingly proven) that a slowdown in the rotation of the Sun was observed at this time. Of course, there is no reason to explain such a strong cooling only by a decrease in solar activity, but the fact remains. So far, we can neither prove nor disprove this connection.

One interesting hypothesis is connected with the Little Ice Age, of which I am a supporter. This hypothesis explains strange sounds in French, English and some Germanic languages, all these th, ng, burr r, nasal, palatal, guttural, etc. It is believed that from chronic vitamin deficiency in children, milk teeth almost immediately fell out and they learned to speak without teeth. Hence all these "pronounces", "grassing" and "pshekane". Those. people have been accustomed to speak this way for centuries and it has become part of the language norms, while in the southern countries, where food was more or less normal (Spain, Portugal, Italy, the Balkans), all sounds are pronounced very clearly. The weak side of the hypothesis is that Russia does not fit well into it, where the famine happened quite often, but the consonants are pronounced correctly.

At the beginning of the 19th century, the climate began to warm up, and by 1850 it settled on the parameters that have existed until our days - until the 70-80s of the 20th century. It is by this circumstance that many explain the sharp increase in the Aryan population in Europe and especially in Russia, where the cold is much more severe. Those. they didn’t give birth anymore, but they began to survive more. And because of the heat, and because of the decrease in the frequency of famine years, which in Russia until 1850 happened about once every 3 years. True, we also state that if the Aryan population in different countries has grown by 180-220%, then the Jewish population has grown by 800%! In the 20th century, it will define itself very clearly.

Colds and racial activity

In the Little Ice Age, despite the most difficult conditions of existence, despite famine, epidemics and plagues, the Aryans repelled the attacks of the Mongols and Turks, completed the construction of giant Gothic cathedrals, launched the Renaissance, discovered all unknown areas of land, and by the time it ended (1850) they captured the whole world, the whole globe. Why did it happen? Perhaps natural selection played a role, in the conditions of climatic extremes, the weak simply did not survive and no one was engaged in any “social program”.

In 1850-1950. the climate was stable and during this time the white race weakened. It would be a mistake to attribute everything to revolutions and world wars; in the 14th and 17th centuries, demographic catastrophes were much more serious and nothing. After all, the very thinking of whites has changed - foolishness, racial tolerance, liberalism, pacifism, sexual perversions have become the usual norm. The idea even visits me that the degradation of the thinking of the race has somewhat outpaced the warming of the climate. Perhaps if America in the 20th century had been the same as before the Civil War (and this is the first serious war since the end of the MLP), it would not have fought against Hitler, because remember that in the 19th century it was for Napoleon, not against. It is significant that 5 years after the end of the Second World War, global warming began, at first almost imperceptible, but from the 60s it was already clearly marked. At the same time, a population explosion begins in colored countries, whites lose all colonies, completely equalize colored people in rights, but since a holy place does not happen empty, colored people soon appear in white cities. First by the thousands, and now by the millions. Hitler predicted this, despite the fact that he did not know that warming would begin.

What do we have now? The warmer - the faster the colored ones multiply, the stronger their expansion into white areas. So far, nothing new has happened in history. Everything already happened. Many times. We talked about the Atlantic Optimum. Then the Arabs, Turks and Mongols actively multiplied, after which they successively<двигали>to Europe. They were beaten off by the so-called. the "first generation" of whites, those who lived from the end of the Roman Empire to the start of the MLP.

In principle, it is known about other cold snaps. And knowing their time, you can see how the races behaved. 5500 BC Holocene optimum. Vine and orchards in Sweden, Spanish climate in Germany, etc. Colored twigs come from the South, for the Sahara has dried up. The era of megaliths begins - 5500-2200 BC. Whites generally fought back, but coloreds seem to have left their mark on their genetics. I explain the greater number of racists among the southern European peoples and the Cro-Magnon sub-race precisely by the fact that they were once "infected" to one degree or another with colored blood. You know, like vaccinations - you need to infect something a little bit in order to develop immunity. Perhaps that is why there are no ideologues of racism among the representatives of the Nordic subrace. Those. they may be racists, but they did not move racism. For the same reason, the "Cro-Magnons" see the danger better than the Nords. They see her already when the Nord is not yet able to see her.

Cooling was observed in 700-100 years. BC. At this time, the Greeks repulsed the Persians, and Rome turned from a small town into a superpower. As soon as the warming began after that, Rome began to flood with colored people, and the Aryan element completely degraded. The warming lasted until about 300-450 years. AD and ended with the invasion of the Huns and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.

Another interesting feature. In the era of warming, whites began to move in the religious sphere. Megaliths and swastikas appeared in the epoch of Holocene optimum. Most likely, at the same time, “Votanic” religions arose glorifying the “golden age”, i.e. the one that was before the invasion of the colored (Wotan, Kronos, Saturn). In the warming era of Achaean Greece and the Trojan War, the cult of Zeus (Jupiter) and the Olympian gods in general arose. In the warm climate of the era of the Principate and Dominate, whites adopted Christianity. At the Atlantic Optimum, Catholicism and Orthodoxy arose. But the most rational religion, with the help of which the Anglo-Saxons took over the world - Protestantism - is just a product of the MLP. By the way, this is an interesting phenomenon, which has not yet been studied at all. National Socialism, we recall, is the product of Catholic ideologues (there are zero Nords among them) and Protestant practitioners (a huge percentage of Nords).

Cryoera and Thermoera

The warming in which we live, in fact, is a small thaw after a protracted Pleistocene glaciation that lasted 1.8 million years, during which glaciers covered all of Canada and reached the Great Lakes in the Western Hemisphere and the area where Kiev is now located in the Eastern Hemisphere. In other words, we live in a cryoera, in an era of glaciations followed by minor thaws. The latter ended around 11,000 BC, after which warming began, reaching a maximum by 5500 BC. (“Holocene optimum”). All subsequent cooling and warming were, in general, insignificant, but as we have seen, they may have influenced the development of many peoples, and even the development of the economy and agriculture - no doubt.
Can we influence the climate? Is it possible to create a climate weapon? In general, it is possible. For example, nuclear explosions made in the right places can raise such amounts of dust into the air that will make the atmosphere much less transparent, which will lead to a significant decrease in temperature. Modern technology (not even modern, but the one that was in the late 50s) allows you to create a nuclear device of almost any power. Let us recall the famous explosion on Novaya Zemlya, when a thermonuclear device was tested - "Tsar Bomba" or "Kuzkin's mother". They planned 116 MT, but they were afraid of the environmental consequences and reduced the capacity to 54 MT. This was enough to melt all the ice on two islands with a total length of 700 kilometers. The sound wave traveled around the globe. In 1962-63, oddities with the climate were observed in the USSR, there were crop failures, interruptions in bread began, and the first purchases of wheat were made abroad. Of course, we cannot attribute all this to the climate, but we emphasize once again that this is a very sensitive system with many connections. As soon as Lorentz discovered a strange attractor in 1963, the USSR, the USA and other nuclear states immediately signed a convention allowing bombs to be tested only underground in order to minimize the impact on the climate. And if, as Lorenz said, even the flapping of a butterfly's wings can affect the weather, is it really not affected by such explosions in any way?

Which is more likely - warming or cooling? It's hard to say, but let's remember that the Atlantic Optimum, the parameters of which we are approaching, gave impetus to the Little Ice Age. There are mathematical models that show that warming in the Northern Hemisphere just leads to a slowdown in the Gulf Stream. One thing can be said: a sharp warming is impossible in principle, but a sharp cooling is completely. We do not know for sure why ice ages roll periodically. But the fact that in the last geological epoch they clearly dominated warmings is beyond any doubt.

Pleistocene glacier in North America. 14-15 thousand years. BC. People of the modern species already existed and fought a hard struggle for existence. But not in America.

But let's talk about warmth. About thermo. In the history of the earth, there was a time of a completely warm climate over almost its entire surface, with the exception of West Antarctica, which was covered by a small glacier. We are talking about the late Triassic and early Jurassic periods. On Earth then there was one giant continent - Pangea, which was washed by one giant ocean - Panthalassa.

Here the total warm climate was explained by the following reason. In the equatorial zone, there was practically no continental surface; this led to the fact that in the hydrosphere (i.e., in Panthalassa) there was no heat transfer from the equatorial zone to high latitudes. It was carried out not by water, but by the atmosphere, as a result, even in the polar latitudes there were no anticyclones, and monsoon rains reached almost the poles, leveling the climate on land. The gigantic areas of Pangea were covered with humid forests, in which giant reptiles bred, and in the Ocean - a terrifying type of fish. The interior, on the other hand, was arid, perhaps even deserted. But it was warm everywhere. The climate began to get colder, albeit slightly, when the split of Pangea began - 225-200 million years ago. And 65 million years ago, at the end of the Cretaceous period, an asteroid with a diameter of about 10-100 kilometers collided with the Earth. Huge masses of dust thrown into the atmosphere led to the extinction of 80% of all life, including giant reptiles. Winter began, lasting several thousand years.

If the average temperature of our planet rises by only 4 degrees Celsius, the devastating consequences of this are even unimaginable! The only hope for salvation lies in the establishment of a radical new world order that will help soften the deadly blows of the climate apocalypse.

Looking beyond the horizon

The alligators that have bred on the English coast, the endless Brazilian deserts, the mysterious disappearance of such cities as Saigon, New Orleans, Venice and Bombay, the death of 90 percent of the world's population - such is the price for the warming of our world. No one would wish for such a future, but it can happen.

The fear of not coping with the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as well as the recognition of the presence of yet unknown natural mechanisms that affect climate processes, can accelerate the further heating of the planet! Experts are concerned not only with understanding the frightening picture of the future, but also with the no less ominous problem of feeding the rapidly growing population of the Earth, which is now approaching 7 billion!

Global warming in the past

The last time the Earth experienced a climate shock was 55 million years ago. Then the cause was the explosions of frozen methane deposits in the depths of the ocean, which expelled into the atmosphere about five billion tons of carbon dioxide! As a result, the temperature on the planet increased by 5-6 degrees Celsius, tropical forests grew in the polar regions, and the oceans became "acidic" from dissolved carbon dioxide, which killed marine life.

In addition, the level of the World Ocean has risen by 100 meters compared to the current one, and deserts have occupied the space from southern Africa to northern Europe!

Although the coming changes on the Earth are mainly due to the rate of melting of the polar ice caps, we can, alas, allow a scenario similar to the one outlined above to repeat itself.

Most vulnerable regions

Half of the Earth's surface lies in the tropics within plus 30 - minus 30 degrees in latitude. And it is this zone, in which India, Bangladesh and Pakistan are located, that is most vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, these countries will be the victims of fierce, albeit short-lived, breakthroughs of the Asian monsoons, provoking the most catastrophic floods. And that's not all: since the land will be hotter, we should expect intense evaporation of water in the seas and oceans, leaving behind arid regions. The African monsoons will be more intense, leading to greening of the semi-arid Sahel semi-desert region (Mauritania and Mali). Consistent with other models, scientists predict widespread drought in the area. However, the lack of drinking water will be felt throughout the world and, in particular, in China, the southwestern United States, Central America, most of South America and Australia. All the world's deserts will tend to expand. In particular, the Sahara will reach the region of Central Europe.

Dehydration of aquifers

The retreat of the glaciers will lead to the dehydration of European rivers, from the Danube to the Rhine, and the same process will occur in the mountainous regions - the Peruvian Andes, the Himalayas and the Karakorum. As a result, water supply to rivers in Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, India and Vietnam will stop. Dehydration of aquifers of soils will lead to the formation of two latitudinal arid belts, where human habitation will be impossible. One belt will "cover" Central America, southern Europe, northern Africa, southern Asia and Japan, the other - southern Africa, the Pacific Islands, Madagascar, most of Australia and Chile.

The only areas in which water will still remain and people can live can be considered high latitudes. Green spaces will be actively developed here, and the rest of the world will appear before us in the form of a continuous desert with a few oases. But then the question arises: how, with such a distribution of the territory of the Earth, is it possible to feed the rapidly growing humanity? True, there is an opinion that by the end of this century the population on our planet is unlikely to exceed one billion people!

Vegetarian perspective

Suppose that after the climate shock, people settled in one of the oases in the middle of the great desert in the amount of 9 million people. At a rate of 20 square meters per person, settlers would need an area of ​​18,000 square kilometers. The area occupied by Canada is 9.1 million square kilometers. Add to this other high-latitude areas suitable for habitation, such as Alaska, Russia and Scandinavia, and we get a sufficient area of ​​\u200b\u200bliving space even after sea level rise.

These precious lands are quite suitable for agriculture. However, living in such oases is burdened by a high population density. This raises the risk of a rapid spread of infectious diseases. The difficulty of keeping livestock in these conditions, plus the acidification of the waters, which kills marine life, may condemn the settlers to forced vegetarianism!

Gaia

The threat of a climate apocalypse looming over our planet, and the increasing frequency of man-made accidents and incidents in transport make us recall the Gaia hypothesis, which inspires the idea of ​​the Earth as a superorganism capable of maintaining the basic parameters of the environment at a constant level. If this balance is disturbed, Gaia severely punishes humanity (the name of the hypothesis comes from the name of the goddess Earth in ancient Greek mythology).

James Hutton, the founder of modern geology, was the first to suggest that our planet be considered a "super-living organism" in 1785. The British chemist James Lovelock developed this idea in 1965 and assigned the name Gaia to it. In the early 1970s, the theory gained supporters and followers, and Lovelock found the first practical confirmation of this hypothesis (in the form of the so-called sulfur prediction). In 2002, evolutionist Tim Lenton, one of Lovelock's followers, stated that the Gaia hypothesis does not contradict Darwin's teachings and, moreover, complements it! And a year later, the Japanese evolutionist Takeshi Sugimoto showed how the adaptation processes discovered by Darwin help life to strengthen its position on our planet.

Modern technology allows you to control the weather. But humanity uses these opportunities for some reason exclusively for military purposes. And Russia, by virtue of its peacefulness, generally found itself on the margins of the process.

Many are convinced that the abnormal heat in the Northern Hemisphere of the planet and unprecedented cold with snowfalls in the Southern is nothing more than a real climate war. Or, in any case, the reaction of Nature to poorly calculated experiments on influencing atmospheric processes in order to cause rains, droughts and even earthquakes. The main culprit of all climatic and tectonic troubles is called, of course, the Pentagon. There is probably some truth in this.

People have been trying to influence the climate, one might say, since prehistoric times. Oral traditions of all peoples of the world and even the Bible keep stories about how storms, earthquakes, droughts and other cataclysms were caused.

In the second half of the twentieth century, the influence on the weather was approached pragmatically, with the help of technologies widely known today. It turned out that powerful clouds for the condensation of rain moisture can be artificially cooled or simply sprayed into them with cement dust, which absorbs moisture and provokes rain. Research in this direction was carried out all over the world. The USA and the USSR succeeded. We have learned how to disperse the clouds around Moscow when some grandiose celebrations and parade events were held in it. In the southern regions, they hit the clouds with special shells from anti-aircraft guns, thus preventing the formation of towns and saving the vineyards.

But the Americans have learned how to influence the atmosphere as much as possible. During the Vietnam War, the Pentagon could "turn on" the rain, which poured for months, eroding all partisan paths. The problem was that not only local residents and fighters against American aggressors suffered from the downpours, but the entire US Expeditionary Force in Southeast Asia.

In the 1990s, for well-known reasons, all research on the impact on the atmosphere for military purposes was stopped in Russia. Today, and for peaceful purposes, we have very limited ability to prevent hail, cause artificial rain or disperse clouds. But in the United States, the influence on the formation of atmospheric processes was approached at a qualitatively new scientific and technological level. American scientists have found out that directed electromagnetic radiation to the ionospheric regions of high latitudes can respond with changes in the weather in the most remote regions of the planet from the North Pole. And the Pentagon allocated considerable funds for the "program of high-frequency active auroral research." In English transcription, this program is called HAARP. It quickly became clear that the control of the ionosphere allows not only to influence weather processes, but also to provide even US missile defense. All studies were kept as secret as possible, which immediately gave rise to a lot of terrible rumors.

The HAARP theme is very popular in the internet community in the US, Canada and the Nordic countries. Bloggers and even reputable scientists consider the program very dangerous, they call it nothing but "satanic" or a "doomsday" weapon. However, there are sites, many are sure that they are funded by the Pentagon, on which HAARP is shown in all its scientific glory and, of course, as an exclusively humane study tool for the upper layers of the ionosphere. However, no one today denies that studies directly related to the impact on the ionosphere have an impact on the Earth's weather.

A direct and very convincing confirmation of this is the work of our compatriot and even contemporary - Alexei Filippovich Smirnov. He is not some kind of closed figure, his work on the Internet has long been disputed. Opinions are polar. Some consider Smirnov a swindler, others - a genius. So who is he who took the liberty of asserting that a simple person can command atmospheric processes? And is it possible not in science fiction novels, but in real life?

Alexey Filippovich is not crowned with academic titles, he does not shine with a polished scientific language. He is just a mechanical engineer by education and an inventor by vocation. They usually say about such people: not of this world. In the early 1960s, Smirnov decided, in his free time from his main engineering work, to invent a gravitol. That was a time of great and bright hopes, when communism officially began to be built, and it seemed to many that there were no impossible tasks. Naturally, he did not build any gravitational aircraft, but he noticed an interesting pattern. Almost immediately after turning on the "gravitational" electromagnetic engine he invented, the weather began to change. The statistics of observations left no doubt - these are not random coincidences, but a pattern.

Aleksey Filippovich seriously engaged in experiments directly related to the control of atmospheric processes. Or, as he himself defined - the creation of the Weather Modification System (SMP). It seems incredible, but Smirnov really succeeded, by turning on his "gravity" emitters in Moscow, to cause rain in the driest regions of Africa, to destroy in the bud the most powerful tornadoes in the United States, or to extinguish hurricanes that raged in the Far East. Moreover, he began to do this much earlier than the United States launched its "apocalyptic" HAARP program.

Having collected the results obtained together, the inventor, anticipating the triumph and high government awards, went in March 1985 to the State Committee for Inventions and Discoveries. There he was listened to attentively and given the address to which he should immediately apply with these amazing discoveries. That was the address of the leading psychiatric hospital in the USSR.

The argument of those who sent the inventor to the specialists in white coats was purely scientific. Does Comrade Smirnov understand what energies are raging in the atmosphere? They are commensurate with the energy of all earthly power plants and are equivalent to the explosion of thousands of nuclear warheads at the same time. And here some innovator is trying to prove that with the help of a generator whose power is equal to the energy of an electric kettle, he is able to turn back the storm fronts and calm the typhoons. Crazy, there are no other words. And all his statistical observations and experiments that took place are nothing more than random coincidences. Smirnov was saved from the madhouse by the impending glasnost and perestroika.

But even in the time of Gorbachev, when people from all platforms called for the activation of creative processes, the acceleration and development of innovative technologies (just like now), none of the government officials took the inventor and his ideas seriously. The arguments were the same. The inventor was told that it was foolish to try to change the direction of movement and even more so to stop with a fist a train weighing thousands of tons, which rushes at a speed of one hundred kilometers per hour. But it was not with the train that it was necessary to compare the technology of weather control, but with the trigger mechanism of an artillery gun. Minimal effort is required to break through the capsule, and the energies of the shot and subsequent explosion are enormous.

Alexei Filippovich did not become discouraged. Moreover, he found many like-minded people, including among serious scientists. The Laboratory of Applied Astrogeophysics was created and the Urania 2M generating plant was built, the weather modification technology was developed to the last detail. It is worth repeating that all this was done ten years earlier than the Americans.

The point is simple at first glance. In the ionosphere, a certain point is calculated - the very "trigger" on which the minimum flux of electromagnetic radiation of a certain frequency generated by "Urania 2M" strikes in a directed way. And very soon atmospheric processes with huge energy come into action, which a person, as it were, cannot control. But it turns out it can! The main thing here is to accurately calculate the "trigger" point of the initial impact.

You can believe in it, or you can not, but the result is always the same - it rains in a certain area, or vice versa - a destructive storm subsides. However, the physics of this process is not fully understood by Smirnov himself and his colleagues. Academic science, which may be and could understand these processes, is disgustedly turning away from the developers of the weather modification system, as from pseudoscientists and notorious charlatans.

It turns out interesting. The vast majority of people have no idea what an electric current is, but they calmly use all electrical appliances, and do not admit that they are based on some kind of charlatanism or pseudoscientific magic. But our official science, including meteorology, seeing that artificially provoked disturbances in the ionosphere cause either rain or drought, do not believe their eyes and consider obvious facts almost a hallucination.

Meanwhile, according to Smirnov, the regular use of the NSR ensures an increase in atmospheric precipitation to the climatic norm even in the most arid region by at least 30%, including in conditions of drought and high atmospheric pressure. No less! There is much more. And in the current heat, oh, it doesn’t hurt to pour rain, even if it’s a third of the climatic norm.

Over the past 20 years, the laboratory of applied astrogeophysics, founded by Smirnov, has carried out more than 50 successful experimental and practical works on the artificial induction of precipitation by remote electromagnetic methods in various countries: the USSR, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, Morocco, Spain, North America. Of course, most of the work was done in various regions of the USSR, and then in Russia, including Moscow and the Moscow region.

And what is the result? On the one hand, he is excellent in performance. But on the other hand, it is always predictably anecdotal.

On the early morning of July 29, 1991, an alarm was announced in Primorye due to the danger of a supertyphoon invasion. The situation was aggravated by the fact that a powerful cyclone was moving from Manchuria. According to the forecasts of Soviet and Japanese weather forecasters, the typhoon was supposed to unite with a cyclone and hit Primorye with hurricane power. Smirnov and his comrades decided to try to weaken the elements. Before turning on the installation, they called the Marine Department of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center and said: the typhoon will not merge with the cyclone, the typhoon's energy will decrease, it will go into the Sea of ​​Japan, where it will stop its rampage. That is how events unfolded.

Relatively recently, the weather modification system worked in the Volga region four times. It is noteworthy that the fourth test under an agreement with the Ministry of Agriculture of the Saratov region was planned and prepared in 2005 in advance, and turned out to be the most successful. Against the backdrop of a general drought that occurred five years ago in the Volga region, the crop was saved in the Saratov region. In general, as it turned out, in order to achieve the maximum effect, managing atmospheric processes must be prepared long before the thunder strikes or the drought strikes everything around.

It would seem that there is confirmed evidence that Urania 2M is operational and weather modification is really possible. Take and apply everywhere, but at the same time study! It wasn't there.

In 1991, the government of the RSFSR even became excited when it learned that the elements in Primorye had been pacified, one might say, man-made. As Smirnov recalls, the chairman of the Council of Ministers of the RSFSR, Ivan Silaev, ordered that a special meeting be held on this occasion. And when venerable connoisseurs of atmospheric processes heard on it that a hurricane in the Far East was "killed" by turning on some low-power emitter in Moscow, they became furious, believing that they, venerable ones, were simply being mocked by some, naturally, crazy . Atmospheric processes in Primorye, which did not go as meteorologists predicted, were attributed to a weather anomaly.

In the Saratov region, getting rid of the drought was again explained by purely natural phenomena, and not by some kind of directed electromagnetic radiation of negligible power. The rains, they say, passed by themselves, so the weather map lay down. Smirnov and his laboratory have absolutely nothing to do with it.

And although the work on modifying the weather in the right direction was carried out in full accordance with the official contracts and all the declared obligations on rains were fulfilled, the "weather modifiers" were paid mere pennies, they were no longer invited to work. In general, this happens almost always. Rain is ordered officially, but when it passes, doubts arise: was it not a natural process, and what, in fact, is the money to pay for?

Meanwhile, research and practical work on weather modification is not cheap at all. It is problematic for researchers to carry them out at their own expense. That is why Smirnov and his like-minded people have been writing letters to high authorities for many years, fighting for the creation of the Russian Institute of World Weather. So that everything is official, according to the state, under public control and not for free. That's just there was no money for reasonable weather control, and no. But most importantly, there is no state will, as they say. There is both will and money for nanotechnologies and fantastic innovative projects of the distant future. And there are no financial, administrative, or top-management resources in the country for the mushroom rain to fall at the appointed time or dry up at the appointed time.

The difference between the Smirnov technique and the HAARP technology is fundamental. The Americans strike at the auroral layers of the ionosphere, one might say, with a sledgehammer. The result, if it is really the result of violence against Nature, is visible to all: heat in the North and snow in the South. But Aleksey Filippovich does not hit the painful points of the earth's Noosphere with all his strength, but is engaged in its healing. His technique can be compared with ancient Chinese acupuncture. And the Earth responds to him not with heat and terrible hurricanes, but with the restoration of the familiar ecology of the planet. When the rains come at their proper time, and when the storms subside without devastating consequences. Russia has a chance to save the planet from the climate apocalypse. What's stopping you from using it? Moreover, Smirnov is not the only researcher of atmospheric processes who has obtained a practical result. There are several other groups of natural scientists who are successfully working in this direction. Just a few!

However, in fairness, it must be said that there are dozens of real scammers who also claim that they can cause rains and storms if they are well paid. Everyone who watches TV saw how some "scientists" tried to turn on the "Chizhevsky chandelier" in the pouring rain in the spring in order to clear the sky. And they tried to shoot down icicles with such "chandeliers" in winter. Did not work.

How to distinguish truth from lies? How to find out who is really scientifically and technologically capable of controlling the weather in the direction we all need, and who is only extorting money? The answer is simple and has long been known in the scientific world. Practice is the criterion of the truth of any theory. Ivanov managed to overcome the drought, at least partially. We work with him, allocating the necessary funds, studying his methodology in more detail. Petrov didn't succeed... Excuse me, Mr. Scientist, work on your "chandeliers" at your own expense until they really can turn precipitation on and off as you say.

Russia is on the brink of a climate catastrophe. Even if this is not a climate war that has actually begun, even if not declared, but just a purely natural disaster, it is necessary to respond adequately and actively. Is there any way to soften the heat? We must take advantage of this opportunity, no matter how exotic and pseudoscientific it may seem.

Sergey Ptichkin, Rossiyskaya Gazeta

____________________
Found an error or typo in the text above? Highlight the misspelled word or phrase and press Shift+Enter or .

During its existence, and especially in the 20th century, humanity has managed to destroy about 70 percent of all natural ecological (biological) systems on the planet that are capable of processing human waste, and continues their "successful" destruction. The amount of permissible impact on the biosphere as a whole has now been exceeded by several times. Moreover, a person releases into the environment thousands of tons of substances that have never been contained in it and which are often not amenable or poorly recyclable. All this leads to the fact that biological microorganisms that act as a regulator of the environment are no longer able to perform this function.

According to experts, in 30 - 50 years an irreversible process will begin, which at the turn of the 21st - 22nd centuries will lead to a global environmental catastrophe. A particularly alarming situation has developed on the European continent. Western Europe has basically exhausted its ecological resources and, accordingly, uses others.

It seems that all environmental problems can be attributed, first of all, to two main factors related to each other: climate change and environmental pollution. According to the scale of distribution, environmental problems can be divided into:

– local: pollution of groundwater with toxic substances,

– regional: damage to forests and degradation of lakes as a result of atmospheric deposition of pollutants,

- global: possible climate change due to an increase in the content of carbon dioxide and other gaseous substances in the atmosphere, as well as the depletion of the ozone layer.

This essay will consider the problem of climate change, which belongs to the category of global catastrophes.

1. The nature of climate change

According to experts, the undesirable consequences of such warming are already beginning to affect, leading to unusually warm winters and unprecedented summer heat, an increase in the areas and duration of droughts, and an increase in the number and intensity of devastating climate disasters. If urgent and decisive measures are not taken, then global warming in the near future may lead to the melting of polar ice caps, rising sea levels and flooding of large areas currently inhabited.

The greenhouse effect for the Earth's biosphere has both negative (rise of the ocean level, degradation of permafrost, coastal ecosystems, etc.) and positive environmental consequences (an increase in the productivity of natural forest formations, an increase in the yield of cultivated plants, etc. In addition to the impact on natural ecosystems, global warming will also lead to significant socio-economic consequences associated with various human activities (energy, agriculture and forestry, health and HR).Among the priority global problems, the rise in the level of the World Ocean and its impact on sea coasts are highlighted.

2. Forecasts of geoecological consequences of global warming of the Earth's climate

2.1. The World Ocean and Coastal Zones in the 21st Century

The expected global warming will cause an increase in the ocean level by 0.5 m by 2050 and by 1-1.5 m by 2100, with a simultaneous increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean up to 2.5 ° C by the end of the 21st century. The main reasons are: melting of continental and mountain glaciers, sea ice, thermal expansion: of the ocean, etc. Currently, sea level rise is about 25 cm per century. All this will ultimately lead to the emergence of complex problems: flooding of coastal plains, intensification of abrasion processes, deterioration of water supply to coastal cities, etc. Moreover, densely populated and developed coastal areas will be the first to be flooded. For example, if the ocean level rises by 1 m, up to 15% of the arable land in Egypt and 14% of the cultivated area in Bangladesh will be flooded, which will cause the resettlement of millions of people.) source of fresh water.

China, which is one of the main suppliers of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, at the same time will feel the negative consequences of warming in the 21st century to the maximum. According to forecasts, even a sea level rise of 0.5 m will lead to the flooding of about 40 thousand km2 of fertile ratins. The most vulnerable will be the vast low alluvial and deltaic plains, the lower reaches of the large rivers Huang He, Yangtze, etc., where the average population density sometimes reaches 800 people/km2. In addition, coast erosion and abrasion are significantly activated, which will lead to serious socio-economic consequences, especially in large cities located on the sea coasts.

This problem will also affect the coastal territories of Russia. Thus, when the ocean level rises by 1 m per century, a strong transformation of sea coasts will occur, in particular, about 40% of the coasts of the European part of Russia will recede by 100 m or more. Residential and industrial buildings will be destroyed in cities such as Nakhodka, St. Petersburg, Arkhangelsk, and others.

Changes can be extremely intense on well-developed shores, for example, the Black and Azov Seas, where natural development will be combined with intense anthropogenic impact, i.e. the removal of sediment from the beaches, the construction of dams and dams on rivers, the creation of bank protection structures, etc. The sandy bay-bars separating the estuaries in the North-Western Black Sea region and the Sea of ​​Azov, as well as the spits of the Northern Azov region, will be destroyed most intensively. In the Kuban Delta and on the Perekop Isthmus, coastal lowlands are expected to be flooded. Coastal slopes composed of unstable loess will begin to recede faster. In the area of ​​Odessa, Mariupol, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in addition to the erosion of the ledges, landslide and landslide processes will intensify, and the destruction of the coast can reach catastrophic proportions.

Ice shores in conditions of rising air and surface water temperatures will be subject to rapid destruction due to the melting of ice and the collapse of overhanging ice blocks. It is possible that the areas of their distribution (Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya), in the waters of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas will increase the number of icebergs. In the case of a small thickness of sheet glaciers, their area under the conditions of climate warming will be significantly reduced, and in the end they may disappear.

The warming of the surface waters of the World Ocean and the Earth's climate as a whole will apparently lead to a restructuring of atmospheric processes and an increase in storm activity in temperate and tropical latitudes.

Global warming poses a significant threat to coral reefs, as when the water temperature rises above a certain limit, coral bleaching will begin, which has now become a fairly common phenomenon in the ocean. Prolonged increases in seawater temperatures can lead to significant degradation of the entire coral reef ecosystem. Possible destruction of coral atolls, which serve as an ecological habitat for living organisms characterized by high biological diversity.

However, changes in the coastal zone of the Arctic seas can be not only negative, but also lead to positive socio-economic consequences. Among them is the improvement of the ice situation along the Northern Sea Route, i.e. the possibility of a longer navigation of ships in the Arctic seas throughout the year.

2.2. Permafrost and modern climate

In recent times, climate warming has been especially acutely felt by the inhabitants of the middle zone of our country. Here hot and dry summers and mild winters followed each other. Most scientists associate the rise in surface air temperature with the ever-increasing industrial emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Just a few years ago, a number of prominent climatologists predicted an increase in air temperature in the north of Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. at 10-15°C. With such a sharp warming, a sharp rise in the level of the World Ocean would be inevitable, accompanied by the flooding of vast low-lying areas, the melting of ground and underground ice, the release of gases (especially methane) buried in permafrost and their additional entry into the atmosphere. It is no coincidence that the newspapers of recent years even appeared warning headlines like "Methane bomb in the permafrost." Fortunately for northerners, predictions of significant climate change in high latitudes have not yet come true. But what can be expected in the future?

It is known that the climate is constantly undergoing natural changes. In 1625, Sir Francis Bacon drew attention to the fact that in addition to daily and seasonal variations of meteorological elements, there are long-term cycles. In 1957, J.K. Charlesworth had already identified about 150 such cycles of various durations. In the 70s, A.S. Monin and Yu.A. Shishkov singled out numerous cycles with a period from a billion to tens of years. Short-period fluctuations of meteorological elements are well known: 5-6-year, 9-14-year, etc. All cycles, superimposed on each other, create a complex integral course of change in meteorological elements. In the last two or three decades, fluctuations associated with anthropogenic impact have been increasingly affecting natural climatic cycles.

When studying long-term changes in the modern climate, in order to exclude random variations, meteorological data are averaged over a period of time, most often over ten years. The analysis of such "sliding" values ​​for air temperature was carried out for a number of countries of the Northern Hemisphere - Russia. Canada. USA (Alaska). China. - and he showed that in most continental regions during the period of instrumental meteorological observations, as a whole, a noticeable increase in air temperature is indeed observed (up to 2.4 ° C in Yakutsk in 1830-1495). However, in areas adjacent to the northern seas, there is practically no increase in air temperature over the entire period of meteorological measurements, despite its fluctuations in individual years. This gives reason to believe that in the Arctic and some adjacent regions, due to the proximity of the seas and the weak technogenic impact, modern warming-cooling periods do not go beyond the natural secular climate cyclicity.

Two periods can be distinguished with a clearly pronounced increase in air temperature in the north: from the end of the 19th century. to the 40s of the XX century. (this period is called the "warming of the Arctic") and from the mid-1960s to the present. The latest warming has not yet reached the size of the first. Moreover, in the early 1990s, a noticeable cooling was observed at a number of Arctic meteorological stations. However, the subsequent years turned out to be quite warm, which was the reason for the persistence of the general trend of climate warming today.

Average annual air temperature in the north of Russia for 1965 - 1995 increased at various meteorological stations from 0.4 to 1.8°С. The trend of these values ​​in the specified 30 years is 0.02-0.03°C/year under the conditions of the European North. 0.03-0.07 - in the north of Western Siberia and 0.01 - 0.08°С/year - in Yakutia. At the same time, warming is mainly due to an increase in winter air temperature. Will this trend continue or will it change? This question should be of particular interest to us - more than 65% of the vast territory of Russia is occupied by permafrost, which is sensitive to the slightest climate change and therefore is by no means eternal.

Permafrost scientists are able to quantify future changes in permafrost for any period, but only if the initial climatic parameters are reliably known. The catch is that long-range meteorological forecasts are far from perfect, and their reliability and justification leave much to be desired. As a result, different permafrost forecasts are obtained on the basis of conflicting climate forecasts.

There are scenarios of significant and moderate climate warming in the area of ​​permafrost in the 21st century, there is even a variant of cooling. So, according to the calculations of M.K. Gavrilova, by the middle of the coming century, the average annual air temperature in Siberia and the Far East will increase by 4-10 ° C, as a result of which the permafrost will thaw and eventually remain only in the high mountains and on the plains of the north of Eastern Siberia and the Far East. O.A. Anisimov and F.E. Nelson believe that an increase in global air temperature by 2 ° C will lead to complete thawing of frozen rocks on 15 - 20% of the permafrost zone. However, as we have already noted, meteorological data for the last 10-15 years show that extreme scenarios of climate change are not justified, warming is occurring, but at a more modest pace.

Forecasts of moderate climate warming are largely based on the analysis of current trends in meteorological characteristics and their extension into the near future. The longer the series and the greater the number of observation points, the greater the confidence in the correctness of the forecast. If the warming trend continues in the first half of the 21st century, we can expect an increase in the average annual air temperature by 0.9–1.5°C by 2020 and by 2.5–3°C by 2050. Atmospheric precipitation by this time will increase by 5 and 10-15%, respectively.

If the above predicted estimates of moderate (and even more abrupt) climate warming in the northern regions are justified, then by the middle of the new century, the appearance of permafrost in Russia will change significantly.

The negative consequences of climate warming are likely to be exacerbated by a simultaneous increase in precipitation. Although the trends of change are difficult to trace, it has been noted that over the past millennium, during periods of warming, the paths of cyclones from west to east have shifted northward, which caused an increase in precipitation at high latitudes and a decrease in them at low latitudes. "Numerous paleogeographic studies also show that during Pleistocene and Holocene warming at high latitudes was accompanied by an increase in climate humidity.It can be assumed that in most of Russia, the expected warming of the XXI century will also be accompanied by an increase in precipitation.This general assumption is confirmed by the results of the analysis of modern trends in meteorological characteristics, which indicate 10-15- percentage increase in precipitation by 2050

With global warming, there will be an increase in evaporation from the surface of the ocean waters and an increase in climate humidity associated with it. As a result of the combined action of these two factors, it is possible to expect a significant increase in river flow, by about 10%, especially in Europe and Africa. In our country, an increase in precipitation is possible in arid areas (Kalmykia, the Lower Volga region). At the same time, due to the increase in evaporation, desertification will occur in the arid zones of the Mediterranean.

An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere can increase the intensity of the photosynthesis process and, therefore, will increase the productivity of both natural forest formations (Australian rainforests and eucalyptus forests) and cultivated plants. For example, in China, the direct effects of an increase in CO 2 in the atmosphere will lead to an increase in the productivity of monsoon forests by 9.5-14%. It has been calculated that a doubling of the CO 2 concentration is expected to significantly increase the productivity of C3 plants (more than 90% of the terrestrial flora), in which the photosynthetic apparatus, without adaptation, is ready to increase the carbon dioxide content. This process will have a slightly lesser effect on C4 plants (gadget, cereals, Compositae, cruciferous, etc.), but morphological changes will be recorded in them: an increase in growth, leaf surface, etc.

Global climate warming by the middle of the XXI century. can lead to a displacement of the boundaries of vegetation zones (tundra, temperate forests, steppes, etc.) potentially by hundreds of kilometers. So, in the northern regions of Eurasia, the boundaries of vegetation zones will move north by 500-600 km, and the tundra zone will significantly decrease in size. According to UNEP, the forecast of climate change will appear in the accelerated decline in tropical forest and savannah areas in Africa.

3. Prospects for the development and solution of environmental problems of climate change

Recently, attention to greenhouse gas research has increased due to the problems of ratification and implementation by various countries of the United Nations Framework Agreement on Climate Change of 1997, abbreviated as the "Kyoto Protocol". The importance of such studies was specifically indicated in the resolution of the Summit of the Heads of the 8 leading powers in Genoa in July 2001.

Mankind is too slow to understand the extent of the danger that a frivolous attitude towards the environment creates. Meanwhile, the solution (if it is still possible) of such formidable global problems as environmental ones requires urgent energetic joint efforts of international organizations, states, regions, and the public.

Speaking about the possible options for the development of the ecological situation on the planet, it seems most meaningful to talk about some of the current areas of environmental protection. Otherwise, one would have to speak exclusively of the horrors of the depletion of natural resources.

In 1982, the UN adopted a special document - the World Charter for Conservation of Nature, and then created a special commission on environment and development. In 1983, the UN Commission on Environment and Development was established, which published the report "Our Common Future" in 1987. The keynote of the report was the famous phrase: "Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable - to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs." Although it was not explained how to do it.

Characteristically, in 1989, the Council of the Club of Rome also qualified sustainable development as a utopia, but "deserving to strive for it." At the same time, the Council of the Club decided to change its tactics and move from discussing environmental issues to developing a Strategy for International Action on XXI. century. According to the club, these actions should lead to "the first global revolution". However, the content and mechanisms of this socio-ecological revolution were not disclosed either in the wills of A. Peccei or in the book of the new leaders of the club.

Although each of the discussed global problems has its own options for partial or more complete solutions, there is a certain set of common approaches to solving environmental problems. In addition, over the past century, mankind has developed a number of original ways to deal with their own, nature-destroying shortcomings.

Among such methods (or possible ways of solving the problem) can be attributed the emergence and activities of various kinds of "green" movements and organizations. In addition to the notorious "Green Peace", which differs not only in the scope of its activities, but also, at times, in the noticeable extremism of actions, as well as similar organizations that directly conduct environmental actions, there is another type of environmental organizations - structures that stimulate and sponsor environmental activities - such as Wildlife Fund. All environmental organizations exist in one of the forms: public, private state or mixed type organizations.

In addition to various kinds of associations that defend the rights of civilization that are gradually destroying nature, there are a number of state or public environmental initiatives in the field of solving environmental problems. For example, environmental legislation in Russia and other countries of the world, various international agreements or the system of "Red Books".

International "Red Book" - a list of rare and endangered species of animals and plants - currently includes 5 volumes of materials. In addition, there are national and even regional "Red Books".

Among the most important ways to solve environmental problems, most researchers also highlight the introduction of environmentally friendly, low-waste and waste-free technologies, the construction of treatment facilities, the rational distribution of production and the use of natural resources.

Although, undoubtedly - and this is proved by the entire course of human history - the most important direction in solving the environmental problems facing civilization is the increase in the ecological culture of man, serious environmental education and upbringing, everything that eradicates the main environmental conflict - the conflict between the savage consumer and the rational inhabitant of a fragile world, existing in the mind of man.

Conclusion

Let us sum up the main results of the work.

Ecologists of all countries note a sharp warming of the Earth's climate. This climate change is called the "greenhouse effect".

The main cause of the greenhouse effect is called human production activity accompanied by an ever-increasing amount of carbon dioxide, methane and other optically active gases emitted into the atmosphere.

Although climate change, whether natural or human-induced (so-called anthropogenic), occurs relatively slowly, it covers vast regions and can therefore pose a serious problem for humanity.

The acuteness of modern environmental problems requires the participation of the broad masses of the population in their solution. Any technological, organizational and economic measures can give the proper effect only if the ecological idea takes hold of the masses. Mass ecological education is called upon to form an ecological worldview, morality and ecological culture of people. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to integrate all knowledge, both about the natural and social laws of the functioning of the environment.

The catastrophic consequences of climate change on Earth are practically inevitable, and we can only talk about their mitigation.

2. Losev K.S., Gorshkov V.G., Kondratiev K.Ya. Problems of ecology of Russia - M.: VINITI, 2001.

3. Barlund K., Klein G. "Medieval" diseases of modern Europe. - M. - 2003.

4. Kondratiev K.Ya. Global changes at the turn of the millennium // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – 2000.

Lavrov S.B., Global problems of our time. - SPb., 2000. - S. 101.

Lavrov S.B., Global problems of our time. - SPb., 2000. - S. 66.

Today we continue the column on current world events. At the beginning of this week, scientists predict an almost twofold increase in the flux density of solar matter blowing over the Earth. This is indicated by observations of the solar wind and the magnetic field of the Sun. As a consequence, geomagnetic disturbances on our planet are possible. The probability that these disturbances will reach the level of a magnetic storm is currently about 65%.

Audio release of the broadcast

solar wind currents

Currently, two dense solar wind streams are observed in outer space, the sources of which are located on opposite sides of our star. It is known that the Sun, when viewed from the Earth, makes a revolution in about 27 days (the real period of its rotation is faster, about 25 days, but for us the Sun visually slows down due to the orbital motion of the Earth). As a result, the solar wind streams, whose sources are located on the Sun and now rotate with it, "fly" to the Earth alternately with a step of 2 weeks (half of the 27-day period). The magnetic storms created by the wind are repeated with the same step.

Solar wind on 10/21/17 (top view of the plane of the planets)

In the illustrations for the text material of today's program, you can see spirals along which these flows spread.

The first stream, somewhat denser, passed over the Earth about a week ago, from October 11 to 15, causing almost five days of geomagnetic disturbances, after which it went on to the next 27-day rotation. The second, weaker stream is now catching up with the Earth and, as already mentioned, should pass us by at the beginning of this week - more precisely from 24 to 27 October. Then, on November 6-7, the first stream will return to the Earth again, having made a 27-day trip around the Sun, after which the first one again, and so on. Until the configuration of the solar wind fundamentally changes, the Earth will have to live in the rhythm of magnetic storms that repeat every two weeks. Score of upcoming geomagnetic disturbances should not exceed 2 on a five-point scale of storms.

And for those who do not know what the solar wind is - a short reference. This is a continuous stream of plasma of solar origin, propagating from the Sun and filling the Solar System. Therefore, today or tomorrow this energy will penetrate the Earth's magnetic field and you and I will be able to feed on it. This cannot but rejoice those who understand the true essence of the Sun and its energy.

climate catastrophes

Let's also ask the Sun for help for our planet today, because it is going through really hard times. Climate catastrophes are happening now in many places on Earth.

• 12 people died as a result of flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall in the Philippine Islands. As a result of the floods, more than 21 thousand local residents were evacuated. Nearly 800 houses were partially or completely damaged. Authorities said relief operations were ongoing.
• Storm "Bryan" hit the cities of Ireland and the west coast of England and Wales on Saturday 21 October. Gusts of wind and rough waves caused great damage to the buildings.
• Hurricane Maria is now raging in the Caribbean. The death toll from the hurricane in Puerto Rico has risen to 49. Since September, about 97% of Puerto Ricans have been without electricity since Hurricane Maria. Many areas of the island of Trinidad are flooded due to heavy rains that began on Wednesday. Today, the Caroni River overflowed its banks, which further complicated the situation. The rains are still going on.
• Portugal is in mourning for the victims of the fires. At least 39 lives were claimed by the fire element, at least 7 were missing. Among the victims - more than 60 wounded, 16 are in very poor condition. In the area between Portugal and Galicia (Spain), at least 43 people died as a result of fires caused by drought and strong winds brought by Hurricane Ophelia. This is the second emergency in a few months. In June, Portugal had to deal with a wave of fires that killed 64 people and injured more than 250.

We live on the same planet with several billion people. We are all children of the Sun. It feels our common problems, without dividing us into peoples and races. So let's aspire to the level of consciousness of our luminary and feel the kinship of each person. Let's all ask the Sun for help to our planet, so that the stream of solar wind coming from it would bring humanity a deep understanding of the laws of evolution, so that everything that happens on Earth happens in line with justice, and all cataclysms bypass honest and kind people.