Peoples have changed many habitats, and some of them traveled distances of thousands of kilometers. Migration of peoples radically changed the picture of the world.
The settlement of the planet (120,000 - 20,000 years ago)
Most geneticists and archaeologists assure that a person very similar to you and me populated the vast expanses of Eurasia, Australia and America, moving from East Africa. This happened gradually, in several waves.
The first wave of migration occurred about 120 thousand years ago, when the first settlers appeared in the Middle East. The last wave of settlement reached the American continent 20,000 - 15,000 years ago.
There were no races at that time: the first people looked like Australians, who for a long time lived scattered and isolated from the rest of the world, which is why they retained their original appearance. The reasons for the "exodus" for science still remain a mystery. One part of the scientists refers to climate change and lack of food, the other - to the first social contradictions and the practice of cannibalism, which divided people into "predators" and "eaten". However, these versions are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Expansion of farmers and the cult of the Mother Goddess (about 6000 BC)
The homeland of agriculture, many cultivated plants and domestic animals that moved with people to Europe, was the Middle East region: Anatolia, the Levant and Mesopotamia. From here, the first farmers settled the Balkans, and then Southern and Central Europe, bringing with them the cult of fertility and the Mother Goddess. Archaeological finds are replete with "mother figurines", and the cult itself survived into antiquity in the form of the Eleusinian mysteries.
In addition to Europe, the agricultural center was also in China in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, from where farmers spread throughout the Far East.
Exodus and the "Dark Ages" (1200-1150 BC)
Scientists correlate the times of the biblical Exodus with large-scale cataclysms and movements of peoples during the “catastrophe of the Bronze Age” - natural and social upheavals of the 12th-13th centuries BC. As a result of the improvement of technology, peoples could easily defeat their previously invincible enemies.
During this period, the “peoples of the sea” attacked the coast of Egypt and the Hittite kingdom and moved to Italy, the Jews settled in Palestine and created a powerful kingdom of Israel. There are gradual migrations of the Aryans to India and Asia Minor - it was during this period that the Rigveda, the oldest collection of Indian religious hymns, was compiled. The powerful states of the ancient peoples are in decline and disappear from the map - the Hittite kingdom, Urartu, Mycenae (Greek Dark Ages) and the Harappan civilization.
"Axial time" (VIII-II centuries BC)
This term was proposed by the German philosopher Karl Jaspers. He wanted to describe the dramatic shifts that took place in the way of life of people and in the development of the largest civilizations of that time. At this time, contacts between peoples increase sharply, which leads to a breakthrough in ancient culture and the emergence of philosophy.
Greek colonists by this time gradually fill the entire Mediterranean and even the Black Sea steppes. The Scythians attack the Persian Empire, the Saks and Yuezhi penetrate into India and China. The Romans begin their expansion in the Apennine Peninsula, and the Celtic tribes (Galatians) reach Anatolia.
The first Japanese-speaking tribes migrated to Japan from North Asia. The oldest world religion, Buddhism, is born and spreads, which causes a flow of preachers and pilgrims in the Hellenistic states of the Middle East.
Great Migration of Peoples (IV-VI centuries AD)
The climatic pessimum, the collapse of the Roman Empire in the west and the Xiongnu Power in the east caused the most active movement of peoples in history. Separate peoples (Huns, Avars) covered a distance of more than 6000 kilometers.
The Romans had to "make room" for the first time. Numerous Germanic (Franks, Lombards, Saxons, Vandals, Goths) and Sarmatian (Alans) tribes moved to the territory of the weakening empire. The Slavs, who from time immemorial lived in the forests and swamps of the inner strip, reach the coast of the Mediterranean and the Baltic, populate the island of Peloponnese, and individual tribes break even into Asia Minor. Hordes of Turks reach Central Europe and settle there (mainly in Pannonia). The Arabs begin aggressive campaigns, during which they conquer the entire Middle East to the Indus, North Africa and Spain.
Crisis of the Middle Ages
This period includes grandiose campaigns of western and eastern conquerors, during which the richest states of the Middle Ages (Rus, Byzantium, the State of Khorezmshahs, the Song Empire) fell into decay. The Crusaders capture Constantinople and the Holy Land. The Mongols move deep into the Chinese territories and throughout Asia, the Turks reach Europe and finally conquer Byzantium, the Germans occupy Central Europe, and the Russian population is concentrated in the northeastern and southwestern principalities, cut off from each other by the Golden Horde. Thailand and Laos are finally settled by Thai peoples who fled south from the Mongols.
Great geographical discoveries and a new era (XVII-XVIII centuries)
A breakthrough in European science and great geographical discoveries prompted many Europeans to populate the lands of the New World untouched by the Mediterranean civilization - South and North America. A large number of aboriginal peoples (American Indians) were driven from their land: partially exterminated, partially resettled on reservations.
A stream of Dutch, French, Irish, English, Spanish (and later Russian) settlers poured into North America. A huge number of black slaves were exported from the West coast of Africa to the Americas. Many Portuguese colonists appeared in South Africa and South America. Siberia is beginning to be populated by Russian explorers, Cossacks and peasants.
Cataclysms of the early 20th century
The beginning of the 20th century was marked by many upheavals for peoples around the world. The resettlement of Jews from the territory of the Russian Empire (mainly to the USA) began. After three revolutions, European countries and the New World experienced the invasion of Russian immigration. After the mass cleansing of the Christian population by the Young Turks in the Ottoman Empire, according to various estimates, from 500,000 to 1,500,000 million Armenians emigrated, about a million Assyrians and Pontic Greeks.
World War II and its aftermath
During the Second World War, many peoples of the USSR were subjected to mass migrations and deportations. Volga Germans were resettled in Siberia, Kazakhstan and the Urals, Karachais were taken to Kyrgyzstan, Chechens and Ingush were exiled to the Kazakh SSR. Kalmyks were evicted to the central Siberian regions, 172,000 Koreans from the border regions of the Far East were deported to Central Asia, and Crimean Tatars were resettled in Uzbekistan and neighboring territories of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
The first years after the end of the war accounted for the creation of the State of Israel, accompanied by a mass migration of Jews to their historical homeland, as well as the partition of India, during which a total of about 16 million people migrated to Pakistan and from its borders.
More and more migrants and refugees from Africa, Asia and the Middle East continue to arrive in Europe. This flow will go down in history as the most massive migration of people in the era of globalization.
As one person remarked:History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes". The current migration process is unique in its own way, but at the same time it has features that were inherent in the large-scale migrations of the past.
The flight from poverty and wars in the hope of a better life brings alien peoples to indigenous peoples, and in this clash, as always, many things are born: the shock of the invasion, the joy of finding a new home, relief after a long journey, a hidden hatred for foreigners and their customs, intensification of conflicts and a whole gamut of other human emotions, as well as long-term political and socio-economic consequences and changes.
Great Migration
"I would rather say that these are bipedal animals, not people, or stone pillars, roughly hewn in the form of a person, which are displayed on bridges. This disgusting appearance corresponds to their habits, characteristic of cattle: they eat food unboiled and unseasoned; instead of ordinary food supplies, they are content with wild roots and the meat of the first animal they come across, which they put under their seat on a horse and so soften.
They live roaming among the forests and mountains, hardened from cold and hunger. They wear clothes like a tunic of linen or fur, and once they put their head through it, they do not let it off their shoulders until it falls off in tatters. They cover their heads with fur-lined hats and wrap their hairy legs in goatskin.
All of them, without a roof, without a fatherland, without any habit of a settled way of life, wander in space, as if everyone is running further, carrying their carts behind them, where their wives work clothes for them, give birth and raise their children ... "
Attila and his hordes invade Italy. Eugene Delacroix
This is how the ancient Roman historian Ammian Marcellinus (who, by the way, was a Syrian Greek by origin) described the Huns in his work "Acts" (Res Gestae, also known as "History" or "Roman History"), commenting on the invasion of barbarian tribes into Europe in the middle of IV century AD e.
Experts are still arguing about the reasons for the mass migration of nomads. Some talk about "global climate change": severe droughts have led to the depletion of lands controlled by nomadic tribes. Population growth also played a role. As a result, the barbarians began to increasingly visit the inhabitants of the European part of the Roman Empire.
The expansion of the living space of the Huns, Goths, Vandals and other tribes and their penetration deep into Europe stretched for several centuries. The aggravation of cultural, linguistic and religious conflicts between the Germanic tribes and the settled population ultimately led to the collapse of Rome and the destruction of the empire.
Newcomers arriving in Europe today do not wear goatskins or fur tunics. In many ways, however, their invasion of modern Europe looks as overwhelming as the barbarian invasion looked to the citizens of the Roman Empire 15 centuries ago.
What drives people from different parts of Africa and Eurasia today? In this crisis, it is quite difficult to distinguish between refugees and migrants. Many have indeed lost everything they had in the bloody chaos of the wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and other conflicts. Others flocked to the countries of the Old World in search of new opportunities, fleeing poverty in their native lands.
Intercontinental migrations
In search of new opportunities, many migrants of the past made even longer journeys than those who flee today to Europe. The European and African ancestors of today's Americans, Canadians, and residents of South America followed the discoverers of new continents, from the Old World to the New.
At the same time, according to many estimates, the number of imported slaves from Africa until the beginning of the XIX century. outnumbered free people. A number of historians note that in the period 1492-1776. of the 6.5 million immigrants who crossed the Atlantic and settled in the Western Hemisphere, only 1 million were Europeans. The remaining 5.5 million were slaves brought by force from Africa.
During the nineteenth century the scale of intercontinental migration is increasing - due to the relative overpopulation in some countries and the lack of labor in others. In addition to the main migration destinations - the United States, Canada, as well as a number of countries in South America - following the exiled prisoners, in search of a better life, people went to Australia and New Zealand.
At the same time, as during the Great Migration of Peoples in the IV-VII centuries. in Europe, conquistadors and adventurers of all stripes and the waves of migrants that followed them crushed the old order of life in those parts of the world where they came to plunder and equip their new world.
A new beginning and expansion of living space for Old World colonists and their slaves was an apocalypse for the indigenous peoples of the Americas. Many tribes and peoples were completely exterminated, their cultures and value systems were wiped off the face of the Earth.
The genocide of the natives of Australia and Tasmania by the British colonists also went down in history and was described by a number of contemporaries, in particular Charles Darwin, as well as military historian and correspondent Alan Moorhead.
Intercontinental migration to the countries of North and South America reached its maximum at the beginning of the 20th century. In 1900–1914 about 20 million people left Europe, about 3/5 of this number settled in the United States. The subsequent world wars had a serious impact on the fate and lives of many people and migration flows.
Immediately after the First World War, the intensity of intercontinental migration dropped sharply. A number of countries, in particular the United States and Australia, introduced restrictive measures for migrants at the legislative level, and after a surge in the early 1920s. in the future, the number of overseas migrants again began to decline.
First and Second World Wars
The First World War led to mass movements of the peoples of Europe. People were forced to flee from the war zones both to other regions of their countries and to neutral countries. However, a much more serious factor was the conclusion of peace treaties and the establishment of new state borders following the war. National minority groups were forced to leave their former places of residence, often there were also forced deportations. In particular, over 500 thousand Germans were resettled from the territory that had ceded from Germany to Poland, more than 200 thousand Hungarians were forced to leave the territory of Czechoslovakia. Groups of the German-Austrian population moved to Austria from areas that used to belong to Austria-Hungary.
The Second World War further accelerated the movement of population groups of one nationality from one country to another. Before the start of the war, more than 12 million Germans lived in the countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, on the territory of Hungary, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.
Those who did not return to Germany along with the retreating German troops were resettled in Germany in the years after World War II by the decisions of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. Many countries of Eastern Europe also exchanged national minorities - again due to changes in the borders of states following the war.
At the same time, the Second World War led to a new intensification of intercontinental migrations. In particular, during the repatriation of the Japanese from the regions of China, Korea, as well as other regions of Asia, about 6.3 million people were resettled in Japan.
Great Depression in the USA
An example of a large-scale flight from poverty was migration within the United States during the Great Depression and a series of dust storms in the 1930s.
By some estimates, more than 1 million Americans impoverished by the economic and environmental crises have traveled across the continent in search of work.
The confrontation with the reality of poverty and hopelessness, as well as the contempt with which the desperate migrants in the western states were met, was described by John Steinbeck in The Grapes of Wrath:
"And in the eyes of people, a feeling of powerlessness and despair, in the eyes of the hungry, anger is ripening. In the souls of people, clusters of anger are pouring and ripening - heavy clusters, and now they do not ripen for long.".
Some rural counties in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have shrunk by more than 25%. At the same time, in a number of districts of the western states (California, Nevada), the population has almost doubled. The population of Los Angeles County grew by over 500,000, the largest increase of any county in any US state between 1930 and 1940.
From all over the world to Israel
The very emergence of Israel as a separate state after a large amount of time since quite ancient times, the resettlement of Jews around the world and the persecution they have undergone in various countries - this issue is likely to be the subject of all sorts of disputes and conspiracy theories for a very long time.
One way or another, the migration of Jews in the course of a series of so-called "aliyas" to the territory of the future state of Israel and their repatriation after the official creation of the country in 1948 became a home (perhaps the most long-awaited in history) for some and a disaster for others. According to a number of estimates, after the partition of Palestine in 1947, more than 700,000 Palestinian Arabs were forced to flee the territories occupied by Israel.
Since the founding of the state, Israel, surrounded by Arab countries, has been fighting for existence and capturing more and more new territories. The ongoing demolition of Palestinian settlements in territories seized after the Six-Day War in 1967 is just one example of what one ethnic group has found a home for others.
Resettlement 2.0: reshaping Europe
What conclusions can be drawn from these and many other similar migration processes?
First, migrants flee to Europe not only from the countries of the Middle East or specifically from Syria, as a number of politicians are trying to present.
Migrants from African countries, as well as Central Asia (in particular, Afghanistan) also represent a fairly significant proportion of those eager to get into the EU.
Data: EU External Border Security Agency, graphics: BBC
Secondly, the migration crisis did not begin this year at all. The flow of migrants, which was measured in tens of thousands in 2012, has grown many times in a few years. The belated reaction of the authorities indicates their low ability to analyze further migration trends.
Thirdly, the statements of the Prime Ministers of Britain and France David Cameron and Manuel Valls about the need to "remove Assad by military force" - in 2015, after since 2011 the authorities of these countries have actually done nothing to destroy the Islamists tearing apart Syria and Iraq speak of their inability to understand the cause-and-effect relationships in the current crisis.
After the "humanitarian" bombing of Libya during NATO's "Operation Unified Protector" and the ensuing virtual political and economic collapse of Libya, the flow of migrants to Europe only intensified. Will it become smaller after the complete destruction of the remnants of statehood in Syria?..
In addition, the statements of the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, that another 160 thousand migrants planned for resettlement in the EU countries represent "only 0.11% of the European population" also call into question the ability of the EU authorities to deal with the current crisis.
Data: United Nations Refugee Agency, graphics: BBC
If Brussels could predict the social stability of society by calculating the growing share of migrants in Europe, then, quite possibly, the European commissioners could notice a certain connection between the ethnic riots that occurred in Sweden in 2014 and the increase in incoming migrants.
Europe is on the verge of a new round of exacerbation of social tension. At the same time, most likely, the growth of nationalist sentiment is inevitable, which will strengthen the positions of parties that openly criticize the continuation of European integration and the loss of national sovereignty and control of individual countries over their borders.
Questions are already open about what will become of the Schengen agreements on free movement within the EU. But what will happen to the very future image of Europe? Will the future face of the average European become a little more Syrian-Iraqi? Or will the Mali-Somali traits stand out more strongly? ..
There is a certain non-zero and growing risk that while interest rates are being calculated in Brussels and quotas for resettling migrants are being distributed, not everyone will want to wear masks of tolerance.
Individual law-abiding citizens of Europe may decide in the future to cease being such and, without waiting for the moment when Messrs. Cameron, Waltz, Juncker and others deign to "find a solution", they themselves will begin to "solve problems" - and by exactly the same methods that the European authorities offer for Syria and other countries.
For several weeks now, Europe has been literally stormed by hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Middle East. Through Italy, Greece, Serbia, Macedonia and Hungary, they are trying to reach Germany, France and Britain in order to settle there permanently. A large number of people are fleeing warring Syria, where about half of the population(!) was forced to leave her permanent place of residence. About two million Syrian refugees moved to neighboring Turkey alone, who are now striving to get to European countries.
They are also joined by migrants from other countries of the Near and Middle East, as well as South Asia - Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc. According to experts, Europe has not encountered such a flow of refugees since the Second World War ...
It is obvious that the leaders of the European Union are in a real stupor, because they do not know what to do with this problem. This is evident from their own statements, which literally contradict each other.
Thus, German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks about the need for an even distribution of arriving people across various EU countries. In response, voices of protest against Merkel's proposals are heard from states such as Poland or Slovakia - this is not surprising, since the weak economies of these states are unlikely to withstand the additional burden in the form of migrants.
The Italians generally threaten to sink ships with refugees, and Britain is ready to leave the EU if the problem is not resolved in the very near future...
In general, Europe is confused and it does not seem that this confusion has somehow passed.
Conspiracy here, conspiracy there
What caused such a massive migration? There are a lot of theories about this. Up to the most exotic.
For example, the leader of the "National Front" of France, Marine Le Pen, sees in what is happening a conspiracy of the ruling circles of Germany. According to her, the Germans today are very seriously concerned about their rising in price products, which can no longer compete with the products of other countries, especially China. And in order to reduce the cost of their export goods, the German rulers want to reduce their cost. First of all - due to a sharp reduction in wages for workers and employees.
It is clear that the native Germans will never agree to this. Therefore, I will replace them with foreigners from Asia and Africa. First, in less qualified areas of the German economy, and then in more complex areas. That is why, says Marine Le Pen, Angela Merkel is so calm about migration issues and calls not to drive out the newcomers, but rather, to accept them almost with open arms.
In this regard, Merkel's idea to create special refugee camps is curious. The Germans will filter people there - Germany will take away the most literate and sought-after people, but the rest of the "foam" will be sent to the expanses of some Romania, Poland or even Ukraine, which, in pursuit of the European dream, has already expressed its readiness to host eastern migrants ...
But there is a more bewitching conspiracy theory. An article is very popular on the Internet today, which claims that in fact, through the invasion of migrants, we see the invisible struggle of the two almighty world financial clans of the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers. The former are European oligarchs, while the latter are American.
Allegedly, the Rothschilds were already tired of the omnipotence of the Americans and therefore set out to create their own global financial system, an alternative to the US Federal Reserve System. To do this, they organized the flow of migrants in order to scare the most important US ally in Europe - Britain. Therefore, it is not in vain that today the British authorities are constantly talking about their possible withdrawal from the EU. And every day this prospect becomes more and more real.
“The referendum on UK membership in the EU is a good time. And the influx of migrants from continental Europe is designed to cause maximum irritation among the subjects of the kingdom, to encourage them to vote for leaving the EU.”
And as soon as Britain leaves the EU, the Rothschilds will have a free hand. Moreover, they will even agree to an alliance with the most important geopolitical opponents of the United States:
“Their main wallet and ally is China. Hopes are connected with him for the creation of a new world center, challenging the old American hegemon. For the sake of an alliance with Beijing, the Rothschilds are ready to enter into temporary cooperation with Russia - due to its obvious geopolitical necessity for China - to integrate Russia, and more broadly, the Eurasian space, into their global plans.
The author believes that the Rothschilds will succeed, especially against the background of today's obvious degradation of the American political and business elite, which has sowed such chaos in the world that it can no longer control it...
And finally, the third version of the global conspiracy, which is especially popular with Russian propagandists, is a purely American game. As political scientist Elena Ponomareva, who is close to the Kremlin, writes about this:
“NATO specifically created certain problems for the Russian Federation, because the so-called arc of instability, which stretches from the Balkans through North Africa and the Middle East, is a direct threat to Russia's southern border.
The Western bloc deliberately initiated the destabilization of these regions. The United States was well aware that there would certainly be a flow of refugees, and in which direction it would also move. First of all, to Europe.
Thus, Washington intended to weaken the EU and sow chaos in Europe, which, as a national structure, has become a fairly serious competitor to the United States in the economic and political sense. In addition, in the longer term, the US plans included upsetting the alliance between Moscow and Berlin, because the establishment of partnership relations between Russia and Germany is a nightmare for the United States.”
Honestly, the argument is very weak. The United States does not need to destabilize Europe through refugees, because Europe, from the point of view of geopolitics, is a complete zero. She and her elite have long been tightly controlled by the Americans - the events in Ukraine showed this most clearly. Therefore, there is no “strategic partnership” between Moscow and Berlin and could not be, by definition.
I think that the situation in reality is much more prosaic and scarier than any global conspiracy theories...
How do you live without Gaddafi?
Best of all, in my opinion, this situation was defined by the former employee of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Sandor Chikos. Here is what he said in an interview with the Free Press:
“The first reason for what is happening is the syndrome of the crisis of capitalism, when life for billions of people has become unbearable: blatant poverty, hopelessness, and more specifically, there is nothing to live on.
The second reason is, of course, the aggressive policy of the United States - the same policy of "controlled chaos". The insatiable greed of TNCs. The insane desire of the United States to dominate the whole world, at any cost crushing everyone and everything who and what tries to stand in their way in defiance. All these endless wars, conspiracies to eliminate objectionable regimes (Gaddafi, now Assad). Recently still quite prosperous, flourishing countries of Libya, Syria are now turned into ruins.
Let's show this with specific examples. It all started with the US attack on Iraq under the slogan of "fighting world terrorism." In fact, America - in pursuance of its well-known strategy to establish complete control over the world's energy resources - has begun to seize by force the richest sources of raw materials, primarily oil and gas, which are located in the Middle East.
This strategy continued already during the so-called "Arab Spring", which led to the overthrow of secular dictatorial regimes from Tunisia to Egypt. It didn’t work out only in Syria, where the rather smart and tough ruler Bashar al-Assad turned out to be in power, who did not want to “bend under the changing world.”
The result of this American policy was the emergence of ISIS, the ongoing war in Syria and complete chaos in countries such as Libya ...
A year and a half ago, the representative of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, John Ging, said that it would take decades to resume normal life in Syria and rebuild everything destroyed:
“The streets and districts of cities were destroyed. Heavy military equipment fired on residential areas: tanks, artillery. In many cases, houses cannot be repaired, only demolished and rebuilt.”
As Ging further noted, the most difficult situation has developed in the city of Deraa, from which anti-government demonstrations began in 2011, and in Aleppo, which was considered the economic capital of Syria before the war. According to him, almost the entire infrastructure of these cities has been destroyed, factories and offices have been looted, schools and hospitals are not working. The country is thrown back in development for decades!
According to the Al-Watan newspaper, as a result of the war, the Syrian economy lost almost the entire oil industry - oil exports fell by 95% compared to the pre-war level. The volume of deliveries of imported goods decreased by 88%. The Syrian pound has been sharply devalued. The population in a panic is buying food and essential goods. From 2011 to mid-2013, prices have risen by 212%! It is not surprising that more than half of the population lives below the poverty line, who, by hook or by crook, seeks to leave their defeated country ...
The situation in Libya is no better. Here is how our regular author Yulia Chmelenko described it:
“The system of social protection of the population has been completely destroyed - in this once rich country, where everyone had guaranteed medical care and free education, today healthcare has been destroyed, unemployment and devastation reign in the country. Damage from NATO bombings is estimated at $14 billion, which is seven times higher than the similar losses of European countries from German bombings during World War II in comparable prices.
In addition, huge damage was done to the country's economy, which will take decades to recover. According to a study by the international consulting company Geopolicity, Libya's budget losses alone amounted to about $14 billion.
The oil infrastructure of the state has collapsed. If before the start of the conflict, daily oil production was 1.6 million barrels per day, then by the end of the conflict, production had fallen as much as eight times! The new Libyan authorities are constantly trying to raise the level of oil production to pre-war levels. However, even by the beginning of 2013, this level was no more than 1.4 million barrels per day. Difficulties in the recovery of the oil industry are still associated with constant armed clashes in Cyrenaica, the main oil-producing region of the country, and the lack of necessary investment resources.
Before the war, many of the largest oil and gas companies in the world worked in the country, including the Italian ENI, the Austrian OMV, the Spanish Repsol, the French Total and the German Wintershall. Many of them are returning to the Libyan market today. However, ongoing armed conflicts and security problems bring all these attempts to naught ...
And also, as a result of the conflict, Libya, in fact, has become an eternal debtor of those countries where the rebels who fought against Gaddafi were trained and treated. Thus, the debt to Greece alone in this regard amounted to about €150 million.
In addition, foreign banks, with the beginning of the revolution, froze Libyan accounts in the amount of more than $150 billion. According to the chief researcher of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Historical Sciences Anatoly Yegorin, these funds are actually lost for Libya itself ... ".
But the worst thing is the actual disintegration of the state into separate, independent territories:
“The former central government that existed under Gaddafi does not exist in Libya today. At one time, it was this man who managed to unite under his command the individual Libyan clans and tribes, who renounced mutual claims and were able to coexist peacefully within one state. And now the ruling General National Council is not able to control even 30% of the Libyan territory, where armed conflicts break out every now and then between individual Libyan tribes and militant groups.
Thus, two-thirds of all Libyan hydrocarbon resources are located in Cyrenaica, which no longer wants to “feed” the entire country. In 2013, the capital of Cyrenaica set up its own government with the aim of "sharing resources in a better way and destroying the centralized system inherited by the authorities in Tripoli"...
Following Cyrenaica, the region of Fezzana also proclaimed its autonomy. The authorities of the region even elected their own president. The official reason for separation from the center was the inability of the latter to solve the primary problems of the region...”.
In a word, the Libyans, like the Syrians, no longer expect anything good from the future, and therefore they rushed in droves today to prosperous Europe.
And all this was superimposed on the global economic crisis, the end of which is not in sight. The crisis hit the underdeveloped countries of the third world the hardest - Western investors left, who now prefer to keep their funds in strong economies, there were no free funds from various international financial organizations such as the IMF - also due to the crisis in the main donors, Western countries. For the same reason, many humanitarian and social programs under the auspices of the UN, which at least somehow supported the needy people in the countries of Asia and Africa, have been curtailed.
That is, capitalism today is not just in crisis. He, due to the existing globalization, where everyone is connected with everyone, generally called into question the existence of entire states and peoples!
All hope for Russia
Thus, the picture is not at all cheerful. Perhaps we are witnessing not just another wave of migration, but the real migration of peoples, which humanity has not seen for almost two thousand years. And it was not I who said this, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of the most intelligent and sober-minded leaders of modern Europe.
He also outlined the prospects for such a great migration - the ethnic "washout" of native Europeans, the elimination of Christian values and, ultimately, the destruction of Europe in its current cultural and political understanding...
Let me remind you about the previous Great Migration. It happened approximately in the III-VIII centuries of our era during the extinction of the ancient ancient world. Then, in the vast expanses of our continent, global climate changes occurred - there was a sharp cooling, which made it simply impossible to live in many parts of Europe and Asia.
Entire tribes and peoples moved from their habitual habitats, who went to look for a better life in more prosperous regions. It is clear that the eyes of the then barbarians turned primarily to the prosperous and civilized countries of that time. As a result, the barbarian invasions almost completely destroyed the ancient cultures both in the East and in the West - the barbarians swept like a terrible tornado through vast territories stretching from the Atlantic to China.
But the most powerful blow fell on the Roman Empire, which was hit by powerful human flows of the ancient Germans, Slavs, Finno-Ugric peoples, Arabs, Sarmatians, Alans, etc. And the empire ceased to exist...
The result was a real regression, the world sank into the darkness of the Middle Ages, many purely technical skills were lost, education became the lot of only the very elite, and culture sank to the most primitive level. According to historians, the level of the Roman Empire - in various areas of life - Europe managed to reach only after ... almost a thousand years!
So is it really worth hoping that the current Great Migration will be less cruel and destructive? I don't think so.
In this regard, the European media even appeared even reasoning that very soon the inhabitants of the continent will soon have to seek salvation not just anywhere, but in Russia hostile to the West.
This, in particular, writes the Polish edition of Obserwator Polityczny:
“As the fall of the West intensifies, Russia will turn every year into the only strong and stable state in an unstable environment.
Already today, many people from countries ruled by soft-hearted politicians who are unable to cope with the banal problem of illegal immigration look with admiration and hope at Russia, about which much can be said, but one thing is for sure - Russians can be sure of their leaders. They will not leave them and hide under the table, waiting until the situation changes enough so that they can go to the cameras and lie.
Today there can be no doubt that the Russian model of state organization is more efficient and, in principle, completely resistant to crises, and Europeans can envy the Russians. Peaceful sleep in some regions of Hungary today is already a memory. People are afraid of illegal migrants who, not respecting their rights and customs, often behave at night in such a way that people perceive it as a threat. Neighbors organize surveillance in villages and small towns, because the Hungarian government is clearly afraid to intervene, so as not to be declared fascists under pressure from European print media ...
There are fewer and fewer states in the world where you can go to sleep peacefully, without fear that someone else will come home at night and cause harm. A year ago, we did not notice this, but today, many in Europe would like to see a few “polite people” in green uniforms standing at the nearest crossroads and ensuring stability, peace and security. But where do you get them from?
And if we take this issue seriously, then in Europe, if nothing changes, in some five years Russia will be the only strong and stable state in an unstable environment. Most likely, the only one in which it will be possible to flee, asking for asylum. Better Siberia or Sakhalin than the fall of Western civilization, which you may not survive.
Of course, the scenario described here looks incredible today. But this is just for now. After all, the ancient Romans also probably thought that everything would work out somehow. But alas, when the disaster came, they did not have their own alternate "airfield", similar to today's Russia ...
Vadim Andryukhin, editor-in-chief
Having outlined the general scheme of the movement of the Indo-European peoples in Eastern Europe at the turn of the 3rd and 2nd millennium BC. (see section ), let's try to recreate the picture of the migration processes of the peoples living here in more detail. While the development of animal husbandry, the increase in the number of livestock among the Turkic settlers in the interfluve of the Dnieper and Don necessitated the development of new pastures (see section), one of the reasons for the movement of the Indo-Europeans was the relative overpopulation of the territory they occupied between the Vistula and the upper reaches of the Oka. Fishing, as the basis of economic management, provided a stable and reliable source of food for the local population, and its numbers gradually increased, leading to a certain demographic tension. The natural conditions of Europe also contributed to the beginning of migration:
Although at that time the vast expanses that today have been turned into cultural countries and are densely populated were covered with primary forests and impenetrable swamps, this circumstance was not a significant obstacle. An extensive system of rivers, along which it was possible to move at any time of the year on canoes and rafts, everywhere provided the opportunity to develop new space. Water was available everywhere and there were no waterless lands or deserts anywhere. There was no summer in Europe with deadly heat, and even winters here were not so severe as to be an obstacle to living ( Kramer Walter. 1971, 22).
It should be emphasized that during the migrations of ancient peoples, not all of the population left their habitable places. For the Indo-Europeans, for the above reason, there was no great need for this, Porzig also believed, but for other reasons ( Portig W. 1964, 97-98). Usually, a surplus of the population departed in search of new places for settlement, and a fairly large part of it, especially in isolated places, remained. When this territory was settled by new people, the remnants of the former inhabitants were assimilated by them, but to a certain extent they influenced the language and culture of the newcomers, i.e. the principle of superposition came into play. on the example of several languages are considered separately. On the other hand, on the way of resettlement, for various reasons, in convenient places from time to time, some part of the migrants remained for permanent residence, while the majority moved on.
Thus, the movement of the peoples of those times was not a resettlement in the full sense of the word. It would be more correct to call it settlement. Obviously, this could not do without military conflicts, but cultural contacts between the newcomers and the autochthonous population were inevitable. In particular, a close cultural exchange took place during the settlement of the Turks in the Trypillia culture, when they began to move to the right bank of the Dnieper in search of free land. The movement of the Turkic tribes in the western direction is considered in more detail in the section.
Natural conditions not only contributed to the migration of the population, but also determined their direction. It is clear that forest spaces still made it difficult for people to resettle and the most convenient way was river systems ( Golubovsky P. 1884, 13). Swimming along the rivers was mostly carried out on one-trees, which were hollowed out from tree trunks (see photo of a Slavic one-tree on the left). In the steppe zone, where rivers flow more in the meridian direction, the need for resettlement pushed people to look for other means of transportation. So the Turks inhabiting the steppe came to the invention of the wheel.
Turkic languages have a common word for sled cana. The Turks were the first to domesticate the horse and used it as a draft force for transporting things on a sleigh. Since sledges are inefficient in summer, the Turks probably made their migrations in winter, until they invented the wheel. The discovery of rotational movement (skating rinks, slopes, etc.) and its use for transportation occurred among different peoples at different times ( Zworykin A.A. and others. 1962, 55). The idea of using the wheel also arose among the bearers of the Yamnaya culture, regardless of external cultural influences ( Novozhenov V.A.. 2012. 123). This is evidenced by carts with disk-shaped wheels found in burials.
Pit period wooden carts.
1. - Art. Novotitarovskaya (Dinsky district of the Krasnodar Territory). 2. - The rest burial mound. 3. - Chernishevsky burial mound (Steppe Zakubanye).
(Kulbaka V., Kachur V. 2000, 54)
On right: Map of finds of wooden carts in the burials of the Yamnaya period(32-30 centuries BC) Southern Ukraine and adjacent territories ( there, 58)
Apparently the wheel and wagon were a further development of the skating rink. In this regard, the first carts were too clumsy, because in them the wheels rotated at the same speed, being rigidly planted on an axle that rotated with the wheels. Such primitive wagons could only move along a straight road for short distances. However, over time, the axle and wheels were separated. The wheels were planted on a fixed axle, which gave them the ability to rotate independently of each other at different speeds.
Left: Reconstruction of the wagon of Novotitarovskaya culture.
The reconstruction is based on materials from burials 150 and 160 I of the Ostanniy burial ground ( Gay A.N. 1991, 64).
As can be seen in the figure on the left, wagons of this type were already distinguished by a complex design with standard part sizes.
Three-part wheels 7 cm thick and about 70 cm in diameter had hubs protruding from both sides. Axes of a quadrangular section were built into the frame, and the wheels at the rounded ends were fixed on them with a pin and rotated freely. The method of attaching the axles excludes the presence of a turning device, that is, the wagon could not provide a sharp turn. Draft animals (bulls or oxen) were harnessed on both sides of a drawbar with a forked end, which was attached to the frame ( there, 64-65). This design already allowed to move over long distances. During this movement in different directions, on the basis of the Yamnaya culture and under the influence of local characteristics, various variants of the Corded Ware culture began to develop in Europe, and in Asia, cultures of a different type. The difference in crop types can also be explained by the time difference in the start of migrations.
The settlement of the Turks in Eastern Europe took place in several streams, bypassing the settlements of the Indo-Europeans and the Finno-Ugric peoples (see the map on the left).
Only a part of those Turks who inhabited its left bank could cross to the right bank of the Dnieper, that is, the linguistic ancestors of the Bulgars, modern Turkmens, Turks, Gagauzes, whose areas were determined.
From the steppes, the Turks moved further along the left bank of the Dniester and the northern spurs of the Carpathians, leaving their settlements in Right-Bank Ukraine and Eastern Poland. Their languages for a long time retained the archaic features of the Proto-Turkic language, because they lost ties with the rest of the Turkic languages, which continued to develop in close contact with each other in the old places of settlements. Most of the migrants to Central Europe and the Baltic States eventually assimilated among the Indo-Europeans and pre-Indo-European natives, however, due to historical circumstances, one of the descendants of the Bulgars, namely the Chuvash, retained their ethnic identity and, along with it, the archaic of the Proto-Turkic language. Thanks to this, the material of the Chuvash language helps us track the paths of the wanderings of the Turks over a very wide area.
A small part of the Turks, moving along the banks of the Desna, reached the interfluve of the Volga and Oka and populated this territory, partially evicting, and partially assimilating the local population. Here they created the Fatyanovo culture as one of the variants of the Corded Ware culture. Another version of this culture, the so-called Balanovskaya, was created by that part of the Turks, who, having crossed the Don, moved along the right bank of the Volga to the mouth of the Oka. The migration of the Turks towards the Upper Volga set in motion a significant part of the local Finno-Ugric population (for this, see the section "")
At the same time, some groups of Turks also moved towards the Balkans along the banks of the lower Danube. As Kuzmina points out, in the III millennium BC. there is a gradual penetration of the pit tribes from the steppe zone into the area of ancient agricultural cultures - in Moldova, Romania, Hungary ( Kuzmina E.E., 1986, 186 1989, 23). Moving up along the left bank of the Danube, the Turks reached the mouth of the Tisza and then turned north. They gradually populated the left-bank part of the Tisza basin up to the Carpathians, i.e. the territory of the Cukuteni culture. The swampy interfluve between the Danube and the Tisza remained uninhabited. Small groups of Turks settled on the right bank of the Danube.
Left: The accumulation of burial mounds of the Yamnaya culture in the Carpathian region and in the Danube basin.. The map was compiled based on the data of Piotr Wlodarchak ( Wodarczak Piotr. 2010. Fig. 1)
European scientists, recognizing the great role of the ancient pit cultural and historical region in the further history of Europe, unequivocally connect the population of this region with the Indo-Europeans. In particular, the following considerations are characteristic of the settlement of pits in the Danube basin:
The Western Black Sea region was the territory through which, starting from the Eneolithic, mobile groups of Indo-European pastoralists moved south and west. Basically, these routes passed along the Danube valley (to the west) and the western coast of the Black Sea (to the Balkans). In geographical (landscape) terms, these territories were a continuation of the Azov-Black Sea steppes, which stretched along the Danube region south of the Carpathians to the lowlands of Central Europe (modern Hungary, Northern Yugoslavia, western Romania and the southern part of Slovakia). That is, the territories that were previously occupied by the agricultural tribes of the Balkan Peninsula and Central Europe. The penetration into these regions of the steppe pastoralists of the Northern Black Sea region - Adazov region to a large extent determined the specifics of the formation and further development of agricultural and pastoral tribes, which is reflected in the term "Indo-Europeanization" ( Kulbaka V., Kachur V. 2000, 27
Taking into account the Turkic ethnicity of the bearers of the Yamnaya cultures, the meaning of the above quotation is rightly attributed specifically to the Turks. In addition, it contains a significant error. The settlement of the Indo-Europeans in Europe is associated with the spread of Corded Ware cultures (CWC), which developed on the basis of the Yamnaya kiltur. But the KSHK monuments in the Balkans have not been recorded.
According to many researchers, the genetic roots of the Cukuteni-Trypillia culture are hidden in the cultures of the Balkans, the lower Danube and the Carpathian basin, and not in the Bug-Dniester Neolithic; their ethnicity is considered unknown ( Zbenovich V.G., 1989, 172; Archeology of the Ukrainian SSR, 1985, 202-203). We suggested that the Trypillians could be Semites, which is quite possible if their ancestors came to the Balkans from Asia Minor. There are some unclear connections between the Balkan cultures and those of Asia Minor.
If the Trypillians were Semites, then traces of the influence of their language on the Turkic ones should remain, since they were neighbors of the Turks. The Dnieper could not be an insurmountable barrier, especially in winter, so primitive trade and cultural exchange between the Turks and Trypillians must have taken place. The search for traces of Trypillian influences in the sphere of trade, i.e. among the words meaning "goods", "payment", gave certain results. A similar word is present in the Chuvash language kěměl and has the meaning "silver", and in other Turkic languages, in full accordance with the phonology of these languages, it corresponds to the word kumus"Same". Of course, silver in those ancient times could perform the function of money, and the change in the meaning of the word is connected with the fact that the trading parties did without a translator and therefore could attach different meanings to the same object. What for some was just a payment, for others it took a specific meaning of silver. Further searches brought rich material, which gives grounds to consider the Semitic origin of Trypillia seriously. This issue is discussed in detail in the "" section.
Apparently, the Trypillians did not have tribal leaders, however, the norms of life had to be established by someone, but by whom, it remains unclear. Initially, they also did not have a priestly class, and the appearance of priests and priestesses in Late Trypillia is explained by the influence of the ancestor cult borrowed from the tribes of the Yamnaya culture ( Alekseeva, I.L. 1991, 21). Nevertheless, there must have been some spiritual authorities in Trypillia society during the general practice of the cult of fertility, which was reflected in the image of a woman-mother, as evidenced by the finds of statuettes with emphasized female forms. Previously, even the point of view about the matriarchal organization of Trypillian society dominated, but such a view contradicts the fact that "the cult of the female ancestor is almost nowhere recorded" ( there,18). It can be thought that the sacred attitude towards women in society came into conflict with the role that, due to physical superiority, a man played in the household. Probably, this internal crisis of Trypillian society predetermined its decline and made it easier for the militant nomads from the east to occupy a dominant position in these lands without much effort. However, the Trypillia cultural heritage left traces on the later cultures of this region, so it can be assumed that most of the population remained in their places. And this is quite likely, because the invaders could not recklessly destroy civilians. Obviously they were limited to robbery and destruction of settlements ( Bryusov A.Ya., 1952).
Along with the cult of the woman-mother, the Trypillians also had the cult of the bull as a masculine principle, and these two cults were somehow intertwined ( Zbenovich V.G., 1989, 165). There is an opinion that the image of a bull and the phallic cult as symbols of male power were brought with them by the pitmen, as well as the patriarchal-tribal system, the cult of ancestors and the funeral rite ( Alekseeva, I.L. 1991, 20-21).
It is possible that in the field of Trypillia culture, with the beginning of its late stage of development WITH(3000 - 2400 BC), Indo-European tribes also began to gradually settle, having already adopted the Trypillia culture, which in the middle period IN(3600 - 3000 BC) spread to the upper reaches of the Southern Bug, Ros and the middle Dnieper ( Archeology of the Ukrainian SSR, 1985, 211). Thus, the spread of culture went in the direction from the southwest to the northeast, but archaeologists do not note the invasion of the agricultural population from the Trypillia culture ( Kuzmina E. E., 1986, 186).
Ancient Greek toponymy on the territory of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, most of the Greeks continued to sail to the mouth of the Dnieper. Having gained experience in the construction of watercraft and navigation, they continued their movement along the shores of the Black Sea. In Greek, the sea is called the word ποντοσ, akin to the Slavic path. Sailing skills further contributed to the settlement of the islands of the Aegean by the Greeks. Having reached the arm of the Danube, the Greeks ascended upstream to the Iron Gate, which made further navigation impossible, so they further moved to the Peloponnese by land, previously inhabited by tribes, obviously related to Asia Minor. In any case, the ancient toponyms of Greece reveal features that are not characteristic of the Indo-European languages.
The Greeks populated the Aegean and Peloponnese in several waves. The first wave, which consisted of the later Achaeans, Ionians and Aeolians, swept in from the Balkans and reached the Aegean Islands around 1900. AD The conquerors reduced to ruins the settlements of the previous settlers, whom they called Pelasgians, Carians or Lelegs. Dark memories of the mysterious tribe of the Pelasgians survived among the Greeks until classical times ( Hoffmann O., Scherer A., 1969, 19). With this Greek invasion, the Middle Helladic era began, which is characterized by the fusion of local cultural traditions with new Indo-European elements. This era lasted more than three centuries, and at the end of the cultural synthesis came the Mycenaean period (1600 - 1050 BC). In the XIV-XIII centuries. BC. Achaeans began their expansion into Asia Minor, Egypt, Sicily and the south of the Apennine Peninsula. This expansion is associated with reports from Egyptian sources about the invasion of "sea peoples". The attack of the Greeks on Troy dates back to this time. Shortly after the end of the Trojan War, around 1200 B.C. According to archaeological data, some destructive phenomena took place in continental Greece, which are associated with a new invasion of Greek tribes - Dorians, more primitive relatives of the Achaeans, who also came from the north.
The second stream of Indo-European expansion passed overland to the southwest to the shores of the Adriatic. It included Italians and Illyrians. At the turn of the Bronze Age and the beginning of the Iron Age, great changes take place in the composition of the population of the Transdanubia and Alfeld ( Shusharin V.P., 1971, 15). There are reasons to link these changes with the coming of the Italics and Illyrians. The latter, in their movement to the Balkans, stopped in Saxony, Moravia, Bohemia, where their traces can be found in toponymy ( Pokorny J., 1936, 193), then settled in the northwest of the Balkan Peninsula, and later occupied Epirus and, possibly, the wider territories of Greece ( Hoffmann O., Scherer A.1969., 10). But the Italic tribes (Sabines, Oscas, Umbers, Latins) were the first to move, since in their wanderings they moved a little further, to the Apennine Peninsula. The settlement of the peninsula took place in several waves, obviously the Latins and Falisci lingered in Pannonia for a long time
On right: The peoples of Italy at the beginning of the 1st millennium BC
The numbers on the map indicate:
1. - Veneti.
2. - Ligures.
3. - Etruscans.
4. - Sabines (picenes).
5. - Umbra.
6. - Latins.
7. - Messaps (yapigi).
8. - Oski.
9. - Sikans.
10. - Sardis.
11. - Corso.
All this movement of the Indo-European tribes to the south could continue for several centuries, because the Phrygians and Armenians later joined the general process of resettlement. The fact of the penetration of the Phrygians into Asia Minor through the Balkans is confirmed in Greek legends. The Phrygians and the mysterious "flies" came to the shores of the Sea of Marmara at about the same time as the Dorians ( Bartonek Antonyn, 1976, 60-65). These "flies" could be a tribe related to the Phrygians, or one of their tribes, it could also be another name for the Phrygians, but the fact that the "flies" later advanced to the headwaters of the Tigris and settled there suggests that they were the ancestors of modern Armenians. True, Tumanyan, referring to data from Hittite and Assyro-Babylonian sources, claims that the ancestors of the Armenians, together with the "sea peoples", appeared in the valley of the Chalis River in the middle of the 2nd millennium BC, ( Tumanyan E.G., 1971). The question of the special closeness of the Armenian and Phrygian languages is considered in the section "". Since the Phrygians and Proto-Armenians appeared in Asia Minor in the middle (or at the end) of the 2nd millennium BC, until that time (not counting the time of resettlement) they had to populate the Right Bank of the Dnieper, since they remained in the Indo-European language space for some time , south of the Thracians.
The Tocharians, on the other hand, should have remained in their ancestral home for some time, as evidenced by some linguistic data, in particular, the lexical correspondences of the Tocharian and Ossetian languages. IN AND. Abaev gives the following examples in his works:
tox. Witsako"root" - Osset. widag"Same",
tox. porat"axe" - Osset. farat- "Same",
tox. eksinek"dove" - Osset. axinag"Same",
tox. aca-karm"boa constrictor" - Osset. Kalm"snake",
tox. kats"belly" - Osset. qasta"Same",
tox. kwas"village" - Osset. qwa"Same",
tox. menki"smaller" - Osset. mingi"small, little."
The Indo-Aryans moved towards Central Asia, crossing the Volga and the Urals. However, some part of them remained in Eastern Europe forever, and clear traces of their language have been preserved in some Finno-Ugric languages for millennia. Examples of Indo-Finno-Ugric lexical convergences are given by T.T. Kambolov:
hung. tehen"cow" - other-Ind. dhenu"cow",
Mansi Sis"child" - OE Ind. Sisu-"child".
muzzle Saras"kura" - OE Ind. Saras"motley" ( Kambolov T.T.. 2006, 32).
To these couples, one can add a lonely one among the Finno-Ugric moks. vrgaz almost completely phonetically identical to OE Ind. vrgas"wolf" (in the Erzya language vergiz). Referring to E.A. Grantovsky, Kambolov also speaks of reverse Finno-Ugric borrowings in Indian, separate from Iranian ones ( there)
In addition, there is reason to believe that the languages of the Sindo-Meotian tribes that inhabited the Taman Peninsula and adjacent territories are genetically related to Indian ones:
Thanks to the works of O.N. Trubachev, hundreds of ancient language forms have been etymologized, and three vast areas of Indo-Aryan language relics have been identified in the Northern Black Sea region: Sindo-Meotian (Azov region), Taurus-Scythian (Great Scythia) and Siginno-Getic (Little Scythia). The overwhelming majority of Meotian language relics are comparable with the language materials of the Indo-Dardo-Kafir group of the Indo-European family. The linguistic material already described and studied before is sufficient to conclude that the Sindo-Meotian and Indian languages are genetically related. ( Shaposhnikov A.K. 2005, 32).
According to Zograf, the division of the Indo-Aryan languages into two branches occurred already outside of Europe, although, obviously, outside of India ( Zograf G. A., 1982, 112). Such a division could have occurred somewhere during the first long stop of the Indo-Aryans, possibly in Central Asia. Linguistic analysis shows that the creation of the Rigveda took place no later than the 2nd millennium BC, therefore, the movement of the Indo-Aryans from Central Asia or Northern Iran occurred earlier than this time ( Lal B.B., 1978, 47). On the other hand, the presence of the Indo-Aryans in Iran may also be evidenced by the fact that a special “Western Indo-Iranian language” appeared not far from it, represented by a relatively small number of names of people and gods:
The area of such names coincides with the area of distribution of the Hurrian language (from the foothills of Iran to Palestine) ( Dyakonov I.M. 1968, 29).
From Dyakonov’s reasoning about the use of the art of mass use of war chariots by the speakers of this language, it follows that they came from the regions “north of the Caucasus” ( Dyakonov I.M.. 1968, 30). Here it must be said that the problem of the migration of the ancient Indo-Aryans is confused by the generally accepted idea of the existence of a special Indo-Iranian (Aryan) linguistic community. According to Harmatta, the advance of the "Indo-Iranian" peoples from the steppes of Eastern Europe to Asia up to Hindustan and China took place in two waves. The first wave took place with the beginning of the 2nd millennium BC, and the second - with the beginning of the 1st millennium BC. ( Harmatta J., 1981, 75). According to our idea, only the Iranian tribes should be considered with the second wave, and the first should have followed that part of the Turks that moved to Central Asia (see below for more on this).
On right: Migration of Iranian tribes
The deserted areas of settlements of the Indo-Aryans, Thracians (proto-Albanians), Phrygians and Armenians are settled by Iranians (see the map on the right). After the departure of the Tocharians, their range was settled by the Balts. Following the Phrygians, the Thracians crossed the Dnieper and settled for a long time on the Right Bank, and from there, in pre-Scythian times, advanced to the Balkans. The Celts, perhaps under the pressure of the Germans, began to move west, where in Central Europe they became the creators of the cultures of the fields of burial urns (1300-750 BC), the northeastern border of which, it seems, passed along the Neman, beyond which there were already lands Slavs. The Germans spread into the area of the Celts, and also occupied the area of the Greeks and the southern areas of the Italics and Illyrians. In the process of these migrations, the Slavs also expanded their territory to the Baltic Sea, moving on the right bank of the Neman and thus establishing direct linguistic contact with the Celts.
A.A. Shakhmatov, who placed the ancestral home of the Slavs in the Baltic states somewhere not far from the Celts. Some linguists, among whom were such authorities as M. Vasmer and K. Buga, were very critical of his statements about the special proximity of the Celts and Slavs, ( Martynov V.V.., 1983), but later his opinion was listened to more carefully:
A.A. Shakhmatov provides a significant list of alleged lexical borrowings in the Slavic language from Celtic, in which a prominent place belongs to social, military and economic terms. The researcher also assumed that part of the Germanisms penetrated into the Slavic language through the Celts. Close Celtic-Slavic relations contributed to the spread of the ethnonym "Venedi" to the Slavs. ( Sedov V.V., 1983, 98).
Examples of Celtic borrowings in Slavic are given by Gamkrelidze and Ivanov: * sluga, *braga, *ljutü, *gunja, *dǫgъ, *testo(Gamkrelidze T.V., Ivanov V.V., 1984). In phonetics, the result of Celtic-Slavic contacts was the nasalization of vowels in the Slavic languages, which developed in line with the general Slavic process of monophthongization of diphthongs * en , *em , *on , *om etc. with a tendency to increase sonority in the structure of the syllable, which led to the dominance of the law of the open syllable ( Vinogradov V. A., 1982, 303,Khaburgaev G. A., 1986, 94). Since nasals already existed in Celtic, under its influence, monophthongization in this case went in the direction of nasalization of the indicated diphthongs in closed syllables. This phonetic influence can be explained by the fact that the Celts and Slavs lived in the same phonetic area. According to Bernstein, Ler-Splavinsky tried to explain the emergence of the Masurian dialect by Celtic influence. Bernstein himself also believed that "the ancient Celtic influences on the Proto-Slavic language were deeper than it seemed so far" ( Bernstein S. B., 1961, 95).
V.V. Sedov believed that intense Slavic-Celtic interaction took place during the reverse migration of the Celts from west to east, which began around 400 BC. Being the creators of the La Tene culture, they made a great contribution to European culture, in particular, to the development of metallurgy and metalworking ( Sedov V.V. 2003, 4-5). Traces of this influence are noticeable in the Przeworsk culture, the creators of which Sedov considered the Slavs, but in fact they were the Germans, and the Celtic influence on the culture and especially on the metallurgy of the Slavs is not visible at all. This is understandable - at that time there could be no Slavic-Celtic contacts, they took place at a much earlier time, even before the arrival of the Goths in the Vistula basin, which forever separated the Slavs from the Celts. The ancestral home of the Goths was located in the area between the upper reaches of the Pripyat and the Neman from Yaselda to Sluch, where they stayed until the beginning of the 1st millennium BC. After that, they began to move in a westerly direction to the lands of the Slavs, stretching to the Vistula. And only a few centuries later, a new wave of Slavic settlers forced the Goths to leave these lands and move along the right bank of the Vistula to Volyn and further to the Black Sea steppes (see the map below).
Wielbar culture in late Roman times (Birbrauer F. 1995, 37. Fig. 6, after: Kokowski. Problematyka kultury wielbarskiej w młodszym okresie rzymskim).
On the original map, the ancestral home of the Goths (number I) and the ancestral home of the Slavs (number II) are additionally indicated.
Since the time of Pliny the Elder (23? AD - 79 AD), ancient scholars (Tacitus, Ptolemy) have placed the Wends on the right bank of the Vistula. Usually Slavs are understood by this name:
... starting from the birthplace of the Vistula River, a populous tribe of Veneti settled down in the boundless spaces. Although their names now change according to different genera and localities, they are still predominantly called Sclavens and Antes ( Jordan III. 35).
Whether the Venedi and Veneti were one people, or whether it was a consonant name for different or related tribes, has not yet been established. In this regard, the history of the migrations of the Slavs in prehistoric times remains vague. It can be assumed that the Slavs were not completely assimilated by the Goths and part of them were forced out to the left bank of the Vistula, after which they continued their migration together with the Celts and reached the area where Venice is now located.
Compared with the migrations of the Indo-Europeans, the Turkic expansion over a wide area of Eurasia lasted much longer and captured the Yamnaya and Catacomb periods. On the territory of Ukraine and the North Caucasus, in the burials of the Pit and Catacomb period, the remains of wooden carts and clay models of wheels, carts and tent-carts were found in about 250 burials ( Kulbaka V., Kachur V. 2000, 27). At the same time, studies show that during the Catacomb period, the number of finds of carts and their models in Right-Bank Ukraine and the Kuban significantly decreased, but increased in the area of the Kuma-Manych depression, which may indicate a cessation of migration to Central Europe and an increase in the outflow of population in an easterly direction ( see map below and compare with map 32-30 above).
On right: Map of Finds of Wooden Carts, Wheels and Their Clay Models from the Catacomb Period(29-22 Art. BC) Southern Ukraine and adjacent territories ( Kulbaka V., Kochur V. 2000, 60)
Burials with characteristic chariot paraphernalia in the Don-Volga forest-steppe testify that the second wave of Turks followed the same path that the Fatyanovo and Balanovites had previously traveled. On the territory of the Upper and Middle Volga region from the upper Oka to the Urals in the second millennium BC. they became the creators of a new culture, which was called Abashevskaya. Archaeological finds, in particular ceramics of the non-Abashev type in the cultural complexes of that time are evidence that only military detachments moved through this territory from the south and took place " not the mutual assimilation of full-fledged cultures, but rather the replenishment of the deficit of their own "unicultural" women at the expense of local" (Matveev Yu.P. 2005, 11).
The bulk of the Turks, in search of new pastures, moved beyond the Volga to the steppes of Kazakhstan, and another part of them settled in Ciscaucasia, displacing the population of the Maikop culture from there, which should also move to the left bank of the Volga and move further east.
On right: Settlement of the ancient Turks in Ciscaucasia.
In the present, the population of the North Caucasus is multinational, but among it are the Turkic peoples of the Kumyks, Balkars, Karachays and Nogais.
At the same time, only the Nogais have pronounced Mongoloid features, while other Caucasian Turks, just like the Turks, Azerbaijanis, Turkmens, Gagauz, belong to the Caucasoid type. Mongoloid signs clearly make themselves felt at the slightest miscegenation, so there is great doubt that the ancestors of these peoples were once located in the territory where the main population belonged to the Mongoloid race. According to the location of the areas of formation of the Turkic languages, the ancestors of the Caucasoid Turks had an ancestral home between the Seversky Donets and the Dnieper. And the linguistic ancestors of the Yakuts, Kirghiz, Kazakhs, Khakasses, Tuvans lived at the same time between the Seversky Donets and the Don. That's it, they were supposed to move through the Volga to the east.
In principle, the Chuvash and Kazan Tatars were also not supposed to have Mongoloid features, but they appeared as a result of miscegenation with the Finno-Ugric peoples, who have laponoid features, or after the arrival of the Tatar-Mongols in Eastern Europe. The mixing of the Chuvash and Tatars with the Mongols could not occur on a large scale, however, Mongoloid signs in some of the Chuvash and Tatars are quite noticeable. This once again shows how difficult it is to get rid of them. If ever the ancestors of modern Turks lived in Altai, then their appearance clearly testifies to this. Thus, we can confidently say that not only the Chuvashs and Tatars, but also the Turkmens, Kipchaks (ancestors of modern Crimean Tatars, Balkars, Karachevs, Kumyks), Oguzes (ancestors of the Gagauz), the ancestors of modern Turks and Azerbaijanis either always remained in Eastern Europe, or did not go far from the Caspian Sea.
There are facts that indicate that the Kipchaks inhabited Ciscaucasia from prehistoric times. First of all, this is evidenced by Turkic toponymy (Terek, Beshtau, Ersakon, Kyzyl-Togai, Uchkeken, for example). Only in the territory of North Ossetia "there are more than one hundred and fifty geographical names explained from the Turkic and Mongolian languages" ( Tsagaeva A.Dz. 2010, 97). And Tsagaeva assumes that these toponyms were left by the Hunnic and Tatar-Mongolian tribes, but this statement can only be partially true. The conquerors usually do not change the names of settlements. When the Ossetians came from the Don basin to the Caucasus, displacing or assimilating the local Turks, they also either did not change the Turkic names, or transferred them to Ossetian, as shown, for example, by the name of the Ursdon River, which is a tracing paper of the Turkic Aksu "White Water" ( there, 18). According to Abaev's calculations, the number of common words in the Ossetian and Karachay-Balkar languages reaches two hundred. At the same time, their possible structuring is logical:
There are three main categories of lexical similarities: elements borrowed from Ossetian into Balkar-Karachaev, elements learned from Balkar-Karachaev into Ossetian, and elements perceived by both of them from a common local Japhetic substrate ( Kambolov T.T. 2006, 277).
Kambolov points out that morphological, etymological, phonetic and other criteria can be used in determining the direction of borrowing, but he does not offer a criterion for the stratigraphy of similarities. He does this by sharply arguing with V.I. Abaev, M. Dzhurtubaev. He analyzes a huge amount of data on mutual linguistic borrowings of the North Caucasian peoples and, in particular, on borrowings in the Ossetian language from Turkic and other languages. On the basis of figures and facts, he proves that the Karachais and Balkars lived in the Caucasus long before the arrival of the Ossetians ( Dzhurtubaev M. 2010, 265-413). There is no way to elaborate on his arguments here, this is a separate big topic, but it should be pointed out that Dzhurtubaev was mistaken in believing that the Ossetians came to the Caucasus not from the Great Steppe, but from Transcaucasia. Just like the Turks, they came from the steppes, but one and a half thousand years later.
Already in historical times, the Balkars and Karachays were pushed back by the Kabardians and Circassians to the mountainous regions, but the Kumyks continue to live on the plain, although at some time they advanced into the valleys of Dagestan, as evidenced by the names of the rivers Sulak and others with a Turkic component Koysu. Having settled in close proximity to peoples of various origins, the Turks not only adopted the customs and way of life of the local population, but also enriched the general cultural fund of the peoples of the Caucasus. For example, from them came the broad custom of "dairy brotherhood", based on the temporary transfer of a newborn child to another family. This custom is called emjack, emcheg, but these same words can mean "milk brother", "pupil". That the custom is of Turkic origin is proved by its name, which is based on a word that in the Turkic languages means "mother's breast" (kum. amcak, karach., balk emcek).
The fact that the Kipchaks, or Cumans, have never been in Central Asia is confirmed by the study of the genetic structure of the population of the Western Caucasus:
As for the East Eurasian component, it was represented in the studied populations to approximately the same extent according to both mtDNA and Y-chromosome data. At the same time, Turkic-speaking Karachays do not demonstrate a significant proportion of this component, which is especially true for mtDNA. Moreover, some populations of the Abkhaz-Adygs contain it to a greater extent. Data on the Y-chromosome, in general, confirm these data ... ( Litvinov Sergey Sergeevich, 2010, 20).
Balkars (Karachays?). Photo from the website "Forgotten Stories."
The photo on the left clearly shows that the Balkars and Karachais do not have signs of the Mongoloid race. It is believed that the Polovtsy came from beyond the Volga to the Black Sea steppes at the beginning of the 11th century, displacing the Pechenegs from there.
However, there is absolutely no historical evidence to support such an assumption, although in ancient Russian and Byzantine sources the invasion of a large people into a neighboring country could not be ignored.
In the Tale of Bygone Years, the first mention of the Polovtsy is under the year 1055 and it is very casual: "In the same year, Bolush came with the Polovtsy, and Vsevolod made peace with them, and the Polovtsians returned back from where they came." For the chronicler, there is nothing new in the presence of the Polovtsy in the immediate neighborhood.
Before the arrival of the Turks in Ciscaucasia, there lived the bearers of the Maikop culture of unknown ethnicity, which there is no reason to identify with any modern Caucasian peoples. Therefore, the assumptions may be different and one of them may be that the Maikopians were forced out by a separate branch of the Turks beyond the Volga and then migrated somewhat south of the bulk of the Turks in the direction of Altai. Many scholars associate the arrival of migrants from Eastern Europe with the emergence of the Afanasiev culture in Asia, which could not develop on local soil:
In the archeology of South Siberia and Central Asia, the Afanasiev culture has long and rightfully occupied a special place for a number of reasons. The most significant of them are the fundamental cultural transformations that take place for the first time at this time in the designated territory. The key components of the “Afanasiev phenomenon” were formulated by M.P. Gryaznov... This is a transition to a productive cattle-breeding type of economy, the beginning of copper metallurgy, a number of indirect data indicating the process of the emergence of a complex system of social relations, suggesting the emergence of social stratification, special ideological ideas and other innovations, pointing to a completely new, but, nevertheless, recognizable matrix, which will finally take shape in the steppe world a little later ( Freebus. A.V, 2012, 199).
Monuments of the Afanasiev culture are recorded in a wide area - in the Upper and Middle Yenisei, in the Altai Mountains and Mongolia. Their study was carried out by various groups of researchers independently of each other without generalizing conclusions ( Stepanova N.F., Polyakov A.V. 2010, 4). However, anthropological studies show that the craniological types of the Afanasievites do not differ from the skulls of the Sredne Stogians and Pitmens of the Zaporozhye region or Kalmykia, which are either descendants of the Sredne Stogians or a mestizo group with a mixture of the same components as in the population of the Sredny Stog culture ( Solodovnikov K.N. 2003). This conclusion is also confirmed by archaeological data:
A number of features that can be considered as ethno-cultural point to the regions where the proto-Afanasievo complex could have been formed - these are the territories of the Lower Dnieper and the steppe Crimea to the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov and Ciscaucasia. Only here are analogies to the Afanasiev funeral rite, in particular, to specific burial structures. As for the other elements of burial practice, it would be more accurate to compare the entire set of features in the most general form with the early common pit standard, which was an integrating element at an early stage in the formation of the ancient pit cultural and historical area ( Fribus A.V. 2012, 200).
Thus, there is evidence that suggests that the creators of the Afanasiev culture were the tribes of the Turks, who came from the steppes of the Northern Black Sea and Azov regions. The chronological framework of the migration of the Turks to the Altai is difficult to establish. The similarity between the sites of the Afanasyevo and Yamnaya cultures allows us to consider them synchronous, but there is a distance of several thousand kilometers between them, so a chronological shift is inevitable. On the other hand, the determination of the age of the Yamnaya cultural-historical community was calculated using the radiocarbon method, so there is no other way than to use the same method when determining the age of the Afanasiev culture. According to calculations, the upper limit of the range of radiocarbon dates of burial sites in the Middle Yenisei and Altai coincides with an accuracy of one year (2289 and 2290 BC). At the same time, Altai dates are distributed relatively evenly over 1500 years, which clearly contradicts the number of monuments left , and in the Middle Altai - on a chronological interval of 700 years (3200-2500 BC). The question is why the Afanasiev sites could appear in Altai earlier than it is proposed to consider them open in the Middle Yenisei ( Polyakov A.V.. 2010. 161).
However, while agreeing that the creators of the Afanasiev culture came from the west, as evidenced, among other things, by the spread of wheeled transport (see the map below), one must agree that the Afanasiev monuments on the Middle Yenisei could not have appeared earlier than on Altai.
Distribution of chariot transport in the Ural-Kazakhstan steppes.
Based on materials (I.V. Chechushkov, A.V. Epimakhov, p. 207)
In their movement to the east, the Turkic tribes followed the order determined by the location of the places of settlements in the ancestral home. The Yakuts, who occupied the extreme eastern area, were the first to move north of Balkhash in the direction of Lake Baikal. Subsequently, they climbed up the Lena to their current habitats. They were followed by the ancestors of the Tuvans, whom we conventionally call tuba. They reached the upper reaches of the Yenisei and now live there. The ancestors of their modern neighbors in the Altai Mountains were the same neighbors in their ancestral home. To the north of both, Khakasses, Kamasinians, Shors, and Chulym Tatars now live. All of them speak close languages, descending from one language, which we conditionally call Khakass, whose area occupied the northernmost part of the Turkic territory in the ancestral home. Obviously, they were moving in a more northerly stream, and their southern neighbors, the Kirghiz, were moving behind them. For a certain time they were supposed to occupy neighboring territories in Siberia, but later the Kirghiz moved to Central Asia, where they live now. In order of priority, the common ancestors of modern Kazakhs and Nogais moved behind the Kirghiz. The Kazakhs gradually settled a large area from the Lower Volga to the Altai, and the Nogais have recently returned to Europe. The last of those Turks who crossed the Volga were the ancestors of the Uzbeks and modern Uighurs, whom we call collectively the Karluks (see the map below).
The Karluks along the right bank of the Syr Darya reached the lower reaches of the Zeravshan, where Uzbeks still live there and in the nearest territories. The Uyghurs, on the other hand, inhabit the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China in close proximity to the Uzbeks. They should not be confused with the Uighur Sars, who speak a language close to Khakass. They live in the Gansu province in northern China, east of Xinjiang. It is hard to say how they got there, but the path of the Karluks can be restored from archaeological finds:
The advancement of the steppe tribes to the borders of Central Asia is evidenced by the Zamanbaba burial ground discovered in the lower reaches of the Zeravshan and other monuments, now united in the Zamanbaba culture ( Masson V.M., Merpert N.Ya., 1982, 329).
Monuments of the Zamanbaba culture, discovered at present in the region of Khorezm, Tashkent, Samarkand, and Bukhara, are close to the Andronovo culture in a number of ways. At the same time, her funeral rite bears the features of the cultures of the Catacomb period. All this gives grounds to believe that the steppe tribes of the pit type took part in its formation ( Masson V.M. 1989, 64).
Presumably, the advance of the Turks to the south towards Afghanistan was stopped by the numerous local population. Fortified settlements in Margiana with traces of fires and ceramics of the steppe appearance found in them can confirm this assumption. Obviously, after the first meetings with warlike nomads, local farmers began to build fortifications to protect their settlements and temples. The first appearance of regular fortresses in the south of Central Asia dates back to the turn of the 3rd - 2nd millennium BC ( Shchetenko A.Ya. 2005, 124-131). This time just corresponds to the ongoing migration of the Turks in the steppes of Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
The Turkic expansion to the east continued for several centuries, and with the beginning of the Bronze Age, a new wave of Turks advanced to the Altai, becoming the creators of the Andronovo culture, and their Caucasoid morphological features can confirm the data of anthropological studies:
Caucasoid in its morphological characteristics, the population made up the vast majority of the Altai-Sayan highlands in the Eneolithic and Bronze Ages, and partly in the Early Iron Age. The Mongoloid admixture is fixed at this time only in isolated cases, but it is constantly increasing, starting from the Early Iron Age, and reaches its full advantage in the modern era ( Alekseev V.P., 1989, 417).
The morphological similarity of part of the Caucasoid skulls of the Andronovo series of the Preobrazhenka-3 burial ground with the series of steppe cultures of the Bronze Age indicates the possibility of migration of the population from the western regions of the distribution of the Andronovo culture, in the physical appearance of which the Mediterranean racial type is manifested ( Molodin V.I., Chikisheva T.A., 1988, 204).
On right: Bronze Age Man. Kazakhstan and South Siberia. Andronovo culture.
Reconstruction by M.M. Gerasimov.
(World History. 1955. Volume 1, p. 457).
At the same time, attention is also drawn to the fact that “during the Andronov period, the population of the Baraba forest-steppe was exceptionally mixed” ( Molodin V.I., Chikisheva T.A., 1988, 204), but people of Caucasoid appearance are definitely associated by specialists with the migration of Indo-Europeans to Siberia and Central Asia:
The origin of the Andronovo community is one of the central problems in the history of the Indo-European peoples. The Indo-Iranian or Iranian affiliation of this community can be considered proven ( Kozintsev A.G., 2009, 126).
How true and on what basis this bold statement can be concluded from the following fact:
In 1960, archaeologist S.S. Chernikov published in Moscow an interesting book “Eastern Kazakhstan in the Bronze Age”, in which, based on the archaeological material he had obtained, he expressed “seditious” thoughts: the bearers of the Andronovo culture, who were considered to be Iranian-speaking, he rightly called the ancestors of the Turkic peoples. S. S. Chernikov was immediately attacked with harsh criticism by some archaeologists, captivated by the idea that the Andronovites were Iranian-speaking. ( Laipanov K.T., Miziev I.M., 2010, 6).
A question arises for the convinced supporters of the Iranian-speaking Andronovites: How could it happen that a fairly large mass of Indo-Europeans completely disappeared from the face of the earth, without even leaving noticeable traces in the languages of the local population? Even if they gradually dissolved in it, then, as the experience of Tokhar shows, it should have taken hundreds of years. During this time, migrants from Europe had to assimilate at least part of the local population and impose their own language on it, since they were carriers of a higher culture than the inhabitants of Siberia. This is exactly what we see if we recognize Turks in migrants. In the process of coexistence and regular miscegenation of the Turks with the local population, over time, a homogeneous anthropological type took shape with obvious Mongoloid features of many ethnic groups that retained either their Turkic (Yakuts, Tuvans, Khakass, Kirghiz, Kazakhs, etc.) or Mongolian language.
It is difficult to say anything definite about the migrations of the ancestors of the Bashkirs, because the Mongoloid element is quite pronounced among them, and in language they are close to the Tatars. It is also difficult to speak with certainty about the time when the Oguzes, Seljuks and Turkmens appeared in the Trans-Caspian steppes.
Our civilization knows many facts of the great migration of peoples. The first millennium was the time of the great migration of the peoples of Europe and Asia. Subsequently, it will be called the "Great Migration of Nations" or "ethnic revolution." As a result of large-scale movements of people, the boundaries of settlements changed, entire states disappeared, ethnic components mixed up, new nationalities were formed. Historians believe that this migration of people became the basis of the ethno-political situation of the modern world.
Researchers are sure that the reason for the majority of mass movements of people is leaving impoverished and unfavorable regions in order to find lands that are attractive for living. One of the main reasons for the mass exodus of people from inhabited territories in 535-536 was the climatic cooling. In this regard, the population from cold regions rushed to areas with a warmer and milder climate.
Subsequently, numerous migrations of peoples were associated with the Arab conquests, expeditions of the Normans, Mongol campaigns and the creation of the Ottoman Empire. Among the large-scale migrations, one can rightfully include the mass emigration of the population from the European continent to the USA, Australia and Canada in the 19th and 20th centuries. As well as the resettlement of Jews in Palestine in the 20th century. In the modern world, migration flows go from poor or war-torn countries to rich ones with comfortable living conditions.
Man, as a rational being, has achieved power on Earth, but it is not unlimited. Society cannot control floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, unable to prevent drought, volcanic eruptions ... The result of these natural disasters: death of people, destruction of housing, water sources, rendering fertile land unusable. The consequence of these disasters is the migration of people from the affected areas. But, since the indigenous population of the regions where the flow of refugees is sent is not always happy to accept them, it is possible that uninvited migrants will come not with a request for help, but with. Mankind is too wasteful and thoughtlessly spends natural resources. It is quite likely that a fierce struggle for the mastery of territories rich in natural resources may begin. And these are not only natural resources, oil and gas - a war can start due to a lack of drinking water or food for the attackers.
If we analyze the conflicts taking place in the world, we can conclude that in the future the world will face a fierce struggle for the possession of hydrocarbon raw materials with the use of armed violence. Research by British petroleum says that there are enough proven sources of oil to supply the planet, but the demand for them in the last five years has significantly exceeded the level of the 90s. Humanity currently consumes about 85 million barrels of oil daily. IEA experts believe that by 2030 oil consumption per day will be 113 million barrels. The total oil reserves are estimated at 15 trillion. barrels. The acuteness of the oil problem is created by the fact that the sources of production have an uneven geographical distribution.
No less tense situation was created in the natural gas market. For the European Union and developing China, uninterrupted supplies of blue fuel are vital. The people of these countries demand that their leaders take steps to ensure the guaranteed supply of this natural fuel in the required volumes and at a favorable price for citizens and corporations.
But the most acute problem facing mankind in the future will be the lack of drinking water - in 2030, half of the world's population will lack it.
The bioresources of the Earth are depleted: soil, forests, water. They do not have time to reproduce naturally. Disagreements in the field of ecology can lead to violent actions of some subjects against others in order to reduce the risks of man-made disasters.
From the above, it is clear that military conflicts and mass migration of the population are possible in the future due to changes in climatic conditions in certain regions of the planet.
Let's remember the earthquake in Haiti in 2010: more than 200 thousand people died, 3 million people lost their homes. Currently, the number of migrants from the territory of Haiti is annually 6% of the total population of the country.
By order of the Pentagon, futurologists have prepared a report on possible conflicts in the future due to natural disasters.
Here is some data from this report:
2015 will bring Europe clashes over food, energy and drinking water. Only Russian help can save the Europeans from energy shortages.
In 2018, perhaps, China will undertake a military operation against Kazakhstan in order to take control of the oil and gas pipelines passing through the territory of this Central Asian country.
The year 2020 will bring another problem to Europe - an increase in the flow of migrants, in connection with which the already existing shortage of drinking water will be exceeded. Note that back in 2006, the World Water Council noted that 41 million Europeans lack water for drinking, and 80 million Europeans have neither sewerage nor drainage systems.
2022 - A conflict between France and Germany is likely over the Rhine River. The Rhine is not only the largest river in Europe, but also a natural border between Liechtenstein and Switzerland, Germany and France, Austria and Switzerland. These countries are now faced with the difficult task of keeping the Rhine waters from pollution, since this river is their main source of drinking water. The fate of millions of Europeans depends on whether the parties reach an agreement.
In 2025-2030, the collapse of the European Union is possible, which will lead to the migration of Europeans to the southern Mediterranean. The resettlement rate could reach 10% of the European population. The large-scale transition of the peoples of Northern Europe to the south will be facilitated by climate change - it will become much more severe. Migrants from Turkey, Tunisia and Libya will also rush to the south of Europe. It is difficult now to imagine how the situation in the European south will develop in this case.
By 2030, relations between Japan and China may worsen due to raw material sources.
As for the United States, this country is threatened by the flow of migrants from the Caribbean islands, and starting from 2015, Europeans will immigrate en masse to America.
It is assumed that in connection with a significant increase in oil prices by 2020, a number of serious conflicts will arise between the leading world powers. And sooner or later, it is in the Persian Gulf that a conflict will occur between the United States and China in the struggle for oil sources.
The governments of China, Pakistan and India will make every effort to hold on to power. And to do this, they can plunge their peoples into a large-scale military conflict. Crowds of hungry people will seek refuge in other countries of the world.
It is believed that the grain-producing regions of the world will be able to maintain a stable position in the event of a global climate catastrophe - these are Argentina, Russia and the United States.
Some countries will unite in front of the possibility of an external threat: Mexico, Canada and the United States will create a single state. The main task of which will be the fight against uncontrolled migration from Europe and Asia.
The unification of Korea will benefit both states: the entire Korean population will have access to the latest technologies that Seoul previously possessed. A unified Korea will become a nuclear power.
In Africa, in the future, constant military conflicts are possible, so the resettlement of Europeans or Asians there is unlikely to happen.
The report of American scientists states that Russia, having become part of a united Europe by 2030, will become a supplier of energy resources, food and fresh water for Europeans.
UN specialists also prepared a report on possible migration processes and regional conflicts in the future.
According to their forecasts, Africa will face the spread of AIDS, a water crisis and an avalanche-like migration of the population to Europe. By 2025, there will be an armed conflict between the states located on the banks of the Nile.
The mass migration of the peoples of many countries to the south of Europe can provoke a revolt against black foreigners. The Europeans will be forced not only to finance the famine-stricken countries, but also to create camps for refugees.
The current increase in droughts in Latin America will lead, in the future, to an agricultural crisis. For example, last year in Brazil, a drought that swept its northeastern regions caused a difficult food situation in more than 1,000 cities in the country. Fights over water have become more frequent in rural areas. The water crisis has led to the bankruptcy of many farms. More than half of the livestock has been lost. There has already been a reduction in the harvest of legumes, soybeans and grains. UN experts believe that in the future the ecological balance of the Amazon may be completely upset and Latin America will face an increase in the struggle for the possession of fertile lands.
The Asian region will not have problems with drinking water, but this part of the planet is threatened, in the future, by powerful cyclones and rising water levels.
Pakistan's rivers may dry up. This will lead to tension throughout the region. And, it is possible that a war will begin between India and Pakistan. The fact that the opponents of this confrontation have nuclear weapons will further aggravate the situation around the world.
China will face the most difficult situation: the south of the country will suffer from heavy rainfall, and the northern regions will turn into a desert due to severe drought. The Chinese coast will be devastated by typhoons. Thousands of refugees will be sent to the south of the country, fleeing the climate catastrophe. The government of the Celestial Empire will try to deal with the chaos with the help of the army, perhaps using weapons.
The United States will try to block the flow of migrants from its southern border into its territory. In the border towns, due to the crowding of people, the crime rate will increase. Thus, according to the information available today, the majority of illegal migrants ended up in the United States by crossing the border with Mexico: 90% of them are of Mexican origin.
According to a forecast report by UN experts, American cities can be destroyed by the strongest hurricanes. If the American oil-producing infrastructure is destroyed, the US will be forced to use its strategic reserve, which will significantly weaken the country.
We must pay tribute to the leadership of the United States: they took the information about possible climate catastrophes in the world very seriously. The Pentagon has already developed a military training program to help the affected regions. New “desert” food rations have been introduced for the soldiers, the necessary uniforms have been prepared and new types of weapons have been created.
Russia has also changed its priorities in terms of types of weapons, significantly reducing the purchase of traditional weapons, began to build frigates and landing ships. Consequently, the Russian military plans in the future to switch to a “gunboat policy” towards a potential adversary. The reduction of the country's population and the decline in the power of the armed forces do not add optimism to the understanding of the future of the Russian state. The optimal strategy for Russia is to strengthen the state's armed forces while simultaneously solving the demographic problem of increasing the country's indigenous population.
Materials used:
http://x-files.org.ua/articles.php?article_id=2901
http://forum.artofwar.net.ru/viewtopic.php?t=110
http://janaberestova.narod.ru/wel.html
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C2%E5%EB%E8%EA%EE%E5_%EF%E5%F0%E5%F1%E5%EB%E5%ED%E8%E5_%ED %E0%F0%EE%E4%EE%E2
