Bets on double outcome have always been and remain in demand among the players on the sweepstakes. This type of bet is considered one of the most likely positions in the lineup of outcomes. The player bets on two out of three possible outcomes in the confrontation between two teams or single opponents.
Betting on 1X means that the bet is considered won if the match ends with the victory of the hosts of the field (site) or a draw. A prediction of 12 implies a victory for one of the sides, but excludes any draw. If you bet on X2, then the bet will be considered won if the hosts do not win the confrontation.
For such types of bets, bookmakers often underestimate the odds. This happens due to the fact that they include events with a high probability of their coincidence. For example, in the match Barcelona - Tenerife, the hosts are already considered the clear favorite. The odds for their victory will be no more than 1.2. The probability that Tenerife will win is close to zero. Therefore, for a 1X bet, the offices will give just meager odds - about 1.02.
On the other hand, the other outcome of this line will have a much higher coefficient of 12. Barcelona's victory is already guessed, and a draw or defeat is unlikely. And yet the bet will be won if the hosts or guests win. As a rule, on the outcome of 12, the bookmakers give a little more odds than on 1X or X2 in favor of the favorite. In this example, the coefficient on 12 will be about 1.2.
It should be understood that the amount of winnings directly depends on the coefficient. Net profit is the result of the difference between the bet amount and the total winning amount.
Consider an example:
The player bet in the match Everton - Tottenham on the outcome of 1X, that is, on the victory of the hosts or a draw. The bet amount is 2000 rubles. The 1X coefficient will be equal to 1.7. If the match ends with Everton winning or a draw, then the winnings will be 3,400 rubles (2,000 rubles * 1.7). Then the net profit will be: 3400 - 2000 = 1400 rubles.
It should be noted that in betting on a double outcome, the final score of the confrontation does not matter.
Double outcome bets are very favorable for the bettor. In theory, each of the three outcomes of a football match can end in a victory for one of the teams or a draw, and each of them corresponds to a 33.3% probability. What kind of bettor will refuse a bet in which his chances are increased to 66.6%? Therefore, this strategy of the game is quite popular among bettors.
About Probability
In fact, often we are not talking about any 66.6%. If Chelsea take on Huddersfield, they will win 9 out of 10 times. So a bet like X2 will almost certainly lose here. This will reflect the coefficient per event - it will be at least five. Bet on 1X for Chelsea not interested in terms of profit. The more the chances of rival teams are equalized, the lower the odds for a double outcome become. For equal teams, all three outcomes 1X, 12 and X2 are evaluated by BC odds like 1.3 - 1.5.
Is it a double chance?
Let's say you're interested in a meeting Atlético - Villarreal. The bookmaker gives odds of 1.9 for a home win, and 4.0 for a draw. The defeat of the Madrid team does not interest us here, so we will not take it into account. For good measure, let's take a bet of the notorious one hundred dollars. You decide to split the odds. This can be done using simple formulas, which are given below:
Win bet = odds on a draw X total amount betting / (odds on a draw + odds on a win)
We count using the formula:
Win bet = 4.0 x 100 / (4.0+1.9) = $67.8
The value is rounded. We have the size of the bet on the victory of Atlético.
Now we simply subtract the size of the bet on the victory of Madrid from the total bankroll:
100 - 67.8 = $32.2
So much money we will bet on a draw.
Imagine that Atlético wins, as befits the favorite. In this case, you need to multiply the amount of the bet on the victory of this team by the coefficient, which ultimately gives the following result:
1.9 x 67.8 = $128.82, i.e. $28.82 profit
If there is a tie, then we multiply 4.0 by $32.2 and get 128.8 and a profit of $28.8, which is almost identical to the first indicator.
Why is it all? And to the fact that, according to the classics, the odds for a double outcome of 1X will be such that the player’s profit is lower than when he bets on each individual outcome. For example, it will be a factor of 1.21. That is, the amount of winnings on a bet with a double outcome 1X at Atlético will be 1.21x100 = 121, that is, 21 dollars of profit, which is less than in the case of a bet on each individual selection. Of course, the coefficient may be different, but it will still be below the standard ordinary.
Why? Because the bookmaker risks more if the bet is double, because the chances of the bettor increase dramatically. The bookmaker is insured, but the bettor?
Or is it insurance?
In other words, double betting offers you a dilemma. Either you are less likely to play with one outcome, or with more chances - with two. But the profit in the second case will be at least not more, but in general - and less.
For a player for whom not losing money is the number one task, and winning is how it will turn out, bets on a double outcome - the most natural insurance. Especially if the recognized hegemon of the national championship acts as home team. In this case, the probability that a bet on a double outcome 1X will play is close to one hundred percent. The bettor is reinsured, the same is done by the bookmaker, reducing the odds to almost one. If the odds for the favorite to win are in the range of 1.1 -1.2, then the 1X bet can be evaluated by a ridiculous odds like 1.02. Will this be of interest to a bettor? A rhetorical question.
Bet on a double outcome on an outsider
Now that we have figured out the purpose of the double chance strategy, let's look at how it is best applied to someone who still wants to try this tempting tactic. Betting like 1X is not very profitable in terms of profit, but betting that the outsider will not lose looks like much more attractive. Of course, we are not talking about a meeting of teams from different poles, for example, Real Madrid and Las Palmas.
An outsider can mean London's Arsenal when he arrives at Old Trafford for a meeting with Manchester United. For example, in the 2017/18 season, the victory of the Gunners over the Mancunians at the latter's home stadium is estimated by bookmakers at a coefficient of 7.0-8.0, a draw - about 5.0. But the outcome of X2, that is, the fact that the Londoners do not lose - with odds of 3.0.
Arsenal have always played poorly against the Red Devils away, but Lately the situation has changed for the better for the gunners. In the last four meetings at home, the Mancunians won only one match, lost one and drew two. Arsenal's chances don't look so bad anymore, a coefficient of 3.0 should only add confidence. Here the X2 bet looks somewhat more attractive than the singles for a draw or a victory for the gunners.
There will be no draw
This is probably the most difficult of the three possibilities to predict. Although in terms of probability, this is the same as with the other two outcomes, a draw quite often resolves a hard-fought match between two teams charged with a fight. But the bookmaker sets a high odd on a bet of 12 just when the strengths of the teams are approximately equal and the probability of a draw is higher.
In other words, you can play according to any strategy, but before applying it, it is very important to calculate everything from a mathematical point of view. Unfortunately, for a successful game and to make a profit, you will have to parse the formulas and deal with a large number of numbers. You may not have, but then take bets solely for the sake of pleasure.
3.6666666666667
20.11.2017
If outcome bets are the most popular among single bets, here are double outcome bets are especially in demand in accumulator bets, because they allow you to increase the likelihood of passage and reduce risks. It is worth noting that, for example, it is impossible to make such bets on tennis or volleyball matches, since there can be no draw. It's a completely different matter if it's a football or hockey event.
Apply knowledge in practice
1X, x2, 12 double
Consider specific example. Qualifying match for the 2018 World Cup. Türkiye-Iceland. The bookmaker offers three options for a double outcome: 1X, X2, 12. So, if a player makes a 1X bet, then it turns out to be winning if Türkiye win or draw. If the match ends in favor of the guests, then the bet will be lost. The essence of the X2 bet is absolutely similar. Only in this case, it will be winning if Iceland wins, or if the match ends in a draw. If the home team wins, the bet will lose.
If the player makes a bet on 12, then the bet will pass if the final whistle fixes the victory of one of the teams. If the match ends in a draw, then the bet will lose.
Considering that betting on a double outcome essentially provides a double chance, professional players very often use the underdog betting strategy. Despite the fact that the permeability, as a rule, does not exceed 30%, thanks to high odds the player is still in the black at a distance.
Thus, speaking about the advantages of betting on a double outcome, it is mainly worth saying that the probability of passing is much higher than betting on an outcome. There is an opportunity to protect yourself from the loss of funds. As for the main disadvantage, it is, of course, relatively low odds. That is why betting on a double outcome most often appears in express forecasts. Also, as noted above, such bets are not suitable for all sports, and also require detailed analysis to identify an outsider.
The most popular betting market in football is the outcomes market. There are only three options here: P1 (winning the first team), X (draw) and P2 (winning the second team). However, football painting is not limited to this one market only. The number is enough popular rates also includes a double outcome. In this article, we will dwell on this market in more detail. Consider its features and even strategies.
What is a double outcome?
A double outcome is a bet that combines two bets from the main selection market at once. There are three options in this market:
- 1X is a bet that the first team will not lose the match (it will win or there will be a draw)
- X2 is a bet that the second team will not lose the match (it will win or there will be a draw)
- 12 is a bet that there will be no draw in the match (one of the teams will win).
So in a way you even put the express, only modified. To give you an idea of how the double chance market works, let's take a practical example. There is a match between Germany and Mexico. Baseline:
- German victory - 1.90;
- Draw - 3.80;
- Mexico wins - 4,333.
You think that the Germans will win, but you are not sure that they will do it in regular time. Therefore, you must simultaneously bet on their victory or a draw. But for this you still need to make calculations - how much to put and so on. In the mural of the same match there is an option 1X for a factor of 1.24. You just need to make one click and you will bet both P1 and X at the same time. Here's how it works.
Tricks
And yet, we will carry out the calculations of bets on a simple victory for Germany and a draw in the match. That is, we will try to put a double outcome through the underlying markets. After carrying out our calculations, you will be able to understand why we did it.
So, let's go back to the odds on the outcomes market in the fight Germany - Mexico:
- German victory - 1.90;
- Draw - 3.80;
- Mexico wins - 4,333.
Let's say you want to bet in total for 100 dollars. Now you need to calculate how much of that $100 is worth betting on a German win and how much on a draw. There is one simple formula for this:
K1*S-(100- S)= K2*(100- S)- S
K1 – real odds for Germany to win
K2– real odds for a draw.
S– the amount of the bet on the victory of Germany
The “real odds” are one less than what the bookmaker offers. That is, K1=0.90, K2-2.80.
0.9S-(100-S)=2.8(100-S)-S
0.9S-100+S=280-2.8S-S
So, we need to bet $66.67 on the German team to win and $33.33 on a draw. Let's calculate our potential profit:
- If the match ends with the victory of Germany: 0.9 * 66.67-33.33 (bet on a draw) = 26.67 dollars.
- If the match ends in a draw: 2.8*33.33-66.67=26.66.
As you can see, you will be able to earn $26.66. And now we remember the coefficient on 1X. All right. He was 1.24. This means that you could only win $24 from $100. You would have lost over $2.50. Still not impressed?
Here's how much it is in percentage terms: 2.67 / 2.4 * 100 \u003d 11.1%. That is, you lose more than 10% of your profits. Agree, this is not so little. That is why many players simply bet through the main market on a double outcome. There is a rational grain in this.
Main pros and cons
The main advantage of double bets is that they give you additional insurance. In some matches, you may not be sure of the outcome, and the combined option will allow you to have a margin of safety. The second positive thing is that you do not need to do any calculations (as we did above). It is enough to find a bet in the double-output market, place it, and that's it - the job is done.
Yes, you “insure” yourself through a double outcome, but you must understand that odds on this market are not the most attractive. Especially if you compare them with P1, X, P2. You won’t be able to win much through such bets, and if something goes wrong, then there is a risk and lose a lot. Another disadvantage we discussed with you above - bookies lower the odds for double outcomes when compared with the main outcomes. Moreover, as our calculation showed, you can lose even more than 10% of your profit because of this. The numbers speak for themselves.
When is the best time to apply
There are a few basic guidelines for betting double outcomes, based on which you can develop your own strategies. For example, we advise you to pay attention to the teams that rarely draw in their national championships. This uncompromising attitude will allow you to have a good profit. For example, London Chelsea only drew three times in the entire 2016-2017 season in the English Premier League.. But usually the odds for 12 with these teams are low. Therefore, it is better to pay attention to the middle peasants, who rarely play a draw: Swansea (5 times), Crystal Palace (5). And in Germany there is Hertha, which has drawn only four times.
There is another application of the "double outcome" market - these are bets on teams that play well at home . Sometimes even non-leaders and not the strongest teams can hardly lose at their home stadium. For such teams, it is better to put 1X. In the German championship there is Cologne (only two defeats in the season) or Hoffenheim (none defeats in the whole season).
The key point in betting on the double outcome market is the study of statistics, as well as pre-match analysis. You should focus on multiple leagues. This will allow you to achieve higher accuracy in forecasts and spend less time searching for information.
Results
double outcome – interesting option rates, which has both its advantages and disadvantages. If you really want to make a profit from betting, then you also need to calculate the "true" odds of double outcomes. This will allow you to maximize profits. As with any other type of betting, you can only succeed here if you invest time and effort.
1) How to make a profit at a distance? The importance of the concept of value.
Betting is an investment. Someone trades on the stock exchange, someone makes a deposit in a bank, and someone has a stable income from sports betting. However, it should be treated as an investment. The only way to beat the bookmaker in the long run (to get a systematic profit, and not to double the pot once and then drain everything) in betting is to find events underestimated by the bookie.
The whole point of betting is to assess the likelihood of events. It is necessary to find matches in which your probability estimate exceeds the bookmaker's estimate. This is VALUE. The bookmaker's score is included in the odds.
Example: let's say the bookmaker's odds for the outcome of Zenit-Spartak over 2.5 is 2.0 (i.e. the probability of breaking the total = 1 / 2.0 = 50% - excluding the bookmaker's margin). You think that the probability is at least 60%. Those. fair odds should be 1/0.6 = 1.67. value is obvious. If we take a distance of 1000 such matches, we will get 400 losses and 600 wins at odds of 2.0. Those. 1200 - 1000 \u003d 200. Or 20% of net profit.
2 ) Why is 60% cross-country ability already cool? Isn't that enough?..
Are you promised a monthly (or even daily) doubling of the bank? Send them to the forest. Look a little further than your nose. Yes, you can be given 3-4 entries in a row. But will they be able to operate flawlessly all the time? Will they make at least a few months in plus? Nobody sees the future, and nobody predicts 100% or even 80% of events. You can guess 8 out of 10, you can give a series of 15 positive outcomes (and I have), but it is almost impossible to guess 800 out of 1000 and win all the time. Naturally, we are talking about normal odds (1.8 and more), and not about 1.01.
60% throughput with an average coefficient of 1.9 gives 14% net profit. 14% monthly cumulative total is 482% per year. Not bad, right? However, we still need to reach these 60% and 1.9. You need to look at a distance of at least 100 forecasts (and reliably from 500 or more).
3) Here: are there fixed matches?
Yes, match-fixing exists. But no one will sell them to you. This information is worth huge money and is intended for a narrow circle of people. All the people who sell “agreements” for 100 rubles look ridiculous. If you know the outcome of the match 100%, charge a million and go to Bali. funny picture to the point: 
4) Error "butt". What is a sagging ratio?
Never bet on odds 1.2 - 1.3. They are absolutely not beneficial. To beat off one bet, you need to bet 4. At the same time, the probability that they will come all at once is much less than laid down. A sagging odd is obtained due to a skewed line. Many people bet on the same event, as a result, the bookmaker corrects the line in the direction of the market. Let's say that initially the odds for over 2.5 in the Manchester United-Liverpool match were 1.8. But people bet a lot on TB, as a result, the odds sink to 1.55. This odd is no longer profitable (remember value?). However, many still continue to bet - this strategy is erroneous. Either manage to bet at a normal odds, or wait for the line to straighten out in live, or refrain from betting altogether. A systematic bet on a sagging odds leads to bankruptcy.
5) Why is it profitable to bet on unpopular leagues? Why do the majority drain their money at the World Cup, Champions League, LE, Premier League?
Everything is simple. In unpopular leagues, it is much more common to find "value" (i.e. with value) odds. Firstly, bookmakers often set an incorrect line for matches of the lower leagues. There are slightly less limits, but you can throw 5-10 thousand for sure. Often these values exceed 30 thousand, depending on the league. Secondly, there is no mass thoughtless progruz of events.
As for the top champions, the best bookmaker analysts work on the matches, so it is much more difficult to find a value odd. In addition, there is a whole cohort of people who bet on favorites. They know the Real Madrid brand - they cut Real for 1.2, regardless of the situation, they load minus handicaps. By the way, therefore, at a distance it is more profitable to bet on underdogs and plus handicaps. However, you need to correctly find such matches. This trend is clearly visible in the rendered matches.
6) Why do 90% of people give money to a bookmaker?
Because they don't know what bank-roll management is. This concept comes from poker, where it came in turn from financial management. It is better to have 10% stable - this gives more than 200% per annum net. Than 150% in a month, and then drain everything in the next two. That is why it is worth limiting the amount single rate. How much% of the bank to take is up to you to decide - depending on how exposed you are to excitement. If after 5 losses in a row you start to panic and win back, you should bet 1-2% of the pot. If you adequately react to losses - 5%. The maximum bar is 10%, however, this amount should be set only if you are extremely confident and there are good reasons to do so (it happens 1-2 times a month, and then not every time).
Accordingly, you can forget about what VA-BANK is. I know many stories about how people then get into loans and ruin their lives.
7) Did I lose?
Yes. There is no person who has not had a single unsuccessful period. If he claims otherwise, believe me, he is a charlatan. Everyone has so-called lose-streaks - a series of defeats. I won't tell you the longest losing streak, but there have been 30% monthly drawdowns in my 7+ year history. However, it also happened that more than 100% of the profit came out per month.
8) How much to bet according to my predictions?
If you carefully read the last paragraph, I think you understand. Maximum 5% of the bank. The decision on the rate is made by you, and you take responsibility.
9) Are express bets profitable?
Express with a coefficient of 200 looks cool, but it is collected by a few out of millions. Express trains are generally unprofitable at a distance, they should be resorted to extremely rarely. And a maximum of 2-3 events. And the disadvantage is that the probabilities are multiplied. Let's say you give 60% to each of the matches that they will come. So, that they will enter at the same time, the probability is only 36%. Are you ready to take that risk?
10) Are live betting profitable?
I do not advise climbing into live betting on your own. The majority loses just by playing live, because. It's harder to control your emotions here. An instant loss triggers the mechanism that you need to recoup. Only with vast experience behind you can turn to live. I see only 3 reasons why this tool is needed.
1. Make an overlap bet if you see that things are not developing at all as expected.
2. Bet on TO after 15 minutes of a football match. Often during this period, teams only look at each other, roll into the match, less than 10% of all goals are scored in the first 15 minutes. In this case, the coefficient, of course, will grow.
3. Live betting on the NBA. Often the game takes place "swinging" - with a change of leaders. You can take the desired handicap for a larger odds at some points in the match.
11) What are the best bookmakers?
In the CIS space, I think the best office BC Marathon. Betting business mastodons: pinnacle and sbobet. Also great offices: william hill bet365. A little less I like 1xbet.
There is no single best strategy. I think flat is one of the best. This is either a fixed amount of bets all the time, or a % of the current/starting pot.
13) How much time do I devote to betting per day?
On average 6-8 hours. Depending on the line.
14) Why do I need all this?
You can earn on bets. I would like those who are losing now to be able to improve the situation. If you wish, you can always find mutually beneficial options if you are interested in something more than a blog.
15) Be continued...
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