1. Economic research in the field of modeling the relationship between education and economic growth.

1.1 Investments in the formation of an economic agent.

1.2 Investment in education across the economy.

1.3 Accounting for the factor of education in production functions.

1.3.1 Education and total productivity of factors of production.

1.3.2 Choice of level of education and economic growth.

1.3.3 Relationship between the level of education and other factors of economic growth.

1.3.3.1 Education, economic openness and economic growth.

1.3.3.2 Education, institutional infrastructure and economic growth.

1.3.3.3 Other factors, education and economic growth.

1.4 Education and convergence.

1.4.1 Studies on convergence and human capital.

1.5 Different ways of assessing the level of education in economic models.

1.5.1 Education as the sum of society's costs.

1.5.2 Education and improvement of the quality of work.

1.5.2.1 Schools enrollment ratios and literacy rates.

1.5.2.2 Average number of years of education.

2. Modeling the relationship between education, economic growth and other factors.

2.1 Model of the influence of education on the total productivity of factors.

2.2 Empirical assessment of the impact of education on economic growth as a factor contributing to the adoption of innovations.

2.3 Total factor productivity, education as a driver of innovation and consideration of other factors.

2.3.1 The level of education and the degree of openness of the economy.

2.3.2 Level of education and foreign direct investment.

2.3.3 Level of education and political situation.

2.3.4 Evaluation of the impact of education on economic growth as a factor contributing to innovation within the country.

2.4 Influence of various economic factors on the level of education.

2.5 Assessment of the impact on the level of education of various indicators of economic development.

3. assessment of the possibilities of implementing economic policy.

3.1 Scheme of economic development depending on growth rates and level of education.

3.2 Differentiation of countries depending on the level of development of education and economy and possible recommendations for further implementation of policies to improve the level of education.

3.3 Influence of the chosen economic policy on the rates of economic growth.

Introduction to the thesis (part of the abstract) on the topic "Modeling the impact of education on economic growth"

Dissertation conclusion on the topic "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics", Pavlova, Natalya Anatolyevna

List of references for dissertation research Candidate of Economic Sciences Pavlova, Natalya Anatolyevna, 2001

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SCIENCE AND EDUCATION AS A FACTOR OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

INTRODUCTION

2.2 Development of the higher education system

CONCLUSION

LIST OF USED LITERATURE

• INTRODUCTION
• The parameters of economic growth and their dynamics are widely used to characterize the development of national economies and in state regulation of the economy.
• The population evaluates the activities of the highest economic and political bodies of a particular country (for example, the parliament, the President, the Government of the Russian Federation) primarily on the basis of considering indicators of the dynamics of economic growth, the dynamics of living standards.
• Economic growth, its rate, quality and other indicators depend not only on the potential of the national economy, but to a large extent on foreign economic and foreign policy factors.
• Economic growth is one of the most important parts of the economic development of society, as well as socio - cultural, political, etc.
• Economic growth only makes sense when it is combined with social stability. Such growth implies the achievement of a number of balanced social tasks: increasing life expectancy, raising the level of education and culture, rationalizing consumption, etc.
• Russia now has an acute need to increase the rate of economic growth. Finding ways to achieve it is one of the priority problems for our country.
• In today's world, scientific knowledge is becoming increasingly important. Only those countries where education and science are developing dynamically can claim a worthy place in the world. Science has already become the main productive force in the advanced countries. The annual turnover in the world market of high technologies and science-intensive products is several times higher than the turnover of the raw materials market. Every dollar invested in science in the West yields several tens of dollars in net profit. Dynamically developing science constantly accelerates all economic processes. In developed countries, it is science and education that are the main source and factor of economic growth and high living standards.
• Undoubtedly, concern for the education of the population is one of the most important strategic tasks of the state. Recently, the Russian authorities have been seriously concerned that many domestic graduates are not working in their specialty, the Russian education system does not meet international standards, the financing of higher education is not entirely according to market laws, and the system of remuneration for teachers and lecturers clearly leaves much to be desired.
• In the next few years, major changes are expected in Russia related to the modernization of the education system: bringing Russian standards in line with European standards, the transition to bachelor's and master's degrees, the introduction of funding for universities on the principle of "money follows the student", a wider introduction of the Unified State Examination and much more . It is assumed that the package of laws that provide the legal framework for the reforms will go to the State Duma this spring session. Most likely, the passage of the bills will not be easy: deputies, like their voters, are rather wary of the changes associated with the education reform, and, probably, parliamentarians, like society, will be divided into two camps - supporters and opponents of modernization. All of the above factors determined the relevance of our study.
• The purpose of the work is to analyze science and education as a factor of economic growth in Russia
• In accordance with the goal, the following main tasks were solved:
• - consider the essence and main indicators of the level of economic development;
• - to give the concept of economic development and economic growth;
• - study the reform of the education system in Russia;
• - analyze the development of the education system at this stage;
• - study the results of the socio-economic development of Russia;
• - consider the strategy of the Russian Federation in the field of development of science and innovation for the period up to 2010.
• Research methods:
• -processing, analysis of scientific sources;
• -analysis scientific literature, textbooks and manuals on the problem under study.
• The object of the study is science and education as a factor in economic growth

The subject of the study is the relationship between the development of science and education and economic growth

Methodological and theoretical foundations of the study.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the course work was: regulations, scientific and teaching aids: Borisova E.F. Economic theory, Kushlina V.I. State regulation of a market economy, Zhukova E.F., General theory of money and credit, Pankrukhina A. Marketing educational services in higher and additional education, Belousova VM Economic theory in questions and answers, as well as materials of periodicals. Analytical materials and Internet resources were also used in the work. The complex nature of the work is based on the current legislation

Structurally, the course work consists of an introduction, two sections, a conclusion and a list of references.

1. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1.1 Essence and main indicators of the level of economic development

The economic development of a society is the evolution of its productive forces and production relations, usually proceeding on the basis of expanded reproduction.

When determining the level of economic development of the country, it is necessary, first of all, to establish a starting point. Many countries compare their level with the level of industrialized countries (for example, the USA, Japan).

A diverse combination of production factors and development conditions in different countries does not allow assessing the level of economic development from any one point of view. For this, a number of key indicators are used:

1. GDP/GNP or ND per capita;

2. Sectoral structure of the national economy;

3. Production of main types of products per capita (development level of individual industries);

4. Level and quality of life of the population;

5. Indicators of economic efficiency.

It should be emphasized that the level of the country's economic development is a historical concept. Each stage of development of the national economy and the entire world community as a whole introduces certain changes in the composition of its indicators.

Let's take a closer look at the indicators listed above.

The leading indicator in the analysis of the level of economic development is the GDP/GNP per capita. These indicators form the basis of international classifications that divide countries into developed and developing countries. Thus, developed countries include countries with per capita GDP of $8,000 or more per year.

In some developing countries, the per capita GDP indicator is at a high level (for example, in Saudi Arabia it is equal to $12,000), but in terms of other indicators (sectoral structure of the economy, per capita production of basic countries cannot be classified as developed.

Another indicator widely used in international practice is the sectoral structure of the economy. Here, intra-industry analysis is of great importance, which is carried out on the basis of the GDP indicator for individual industries. First of all, the relationship between the major national economic sectors of material and non-material production is being studied. This ratio is revealed primarily by the share of the manufacturing industry.

The study of the structure of individual industries is also important. For example, a sectoral analysis of the manufacturing industry shows what proportion it is occupied by mechanical engineering and chemistry, i.e. industries providing scientific and technical progress. The diversification of leading industries is great. For example, the number of engineering industries and industries in the industrialized countries of the world reaches 150-200 or more, and only 10-15 in countries with a relatively low level of economic development. The share of large economic complexes is also analyzed: fuel and energy, agro-industrial, building and construction materials, defense, military-industrial, etc. Yegorov E.V. Economics of the Public Sector: A Course of Lectures. - M.: TEIS, 1998. - 334 p.

They characterize the level of economic development of the country and the indicators of production of some basic types of products that are basic for the development of the national economy; they make it possible to judge the possibilities of meeting the needs of the country in these basic types of products.

First of all, such indicators include the production of electricity per capita. The electric power industry underlies the development of all types of industries, and, therefore, this indicator hides the possibilities of technical progress, the achieved level of production and quality of goods, and the level of services, etc. The ratio of this indicator between developed and least developed countries is currently 500:1 Alternatives for Russia's economic development in the 21st century. // Problems of theory and practice of management. - 1999. - N6. - S. 44-47.

Another characteristic indicator of this kind is the per capita production of the main types of food products in the country: grain, milk, meat, sugar, potatoes, etc. Comparison of this indicator, for example, with the rational consumption standards for these food products developed by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization UN) or national institutions, allows you to judge the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the population in food own production, about the quality of the diet, etc.

Close to those indicated are the indicators of availability (or production in the country) per 1000 people or per average family of a number of durable goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, cars, computers, etc.

The standard of living of the country's population is largely characterized by the structure of GDP by use. The analysis of the structure of private final consumption (personal consumption expenditures) is especially important. Big share in the consumption of durable goods and services indicates a higher standard of living of the population and, consequently, a higher overall level of economic development of the country.

An analysis of the standard of living of the population is usually accompanied by an analysis of two interrelated indicators: the “consumer basket” and the “living wage”.

Consumer basket - a minimum set of food products that takes into account dietary restrictions and provides the minimum required number of calories. The consumer basket also includes the necessary set of non-food products, services, necessary payments. Thus, the consumer basket includes products, goods and services necessary to maintain human health and ensure its vital activity. The subsistence minimum is a cost estimate of the consumer basket, an indicator of the minimum composition and structure of consumption of material goods and services. According to the subsistence minimum, the official poverty line is fixed. According to the declaration of the rights and freedoms of man and citizen, all benefits and payments to citizens must provide an income level not lower than the subsistence minimum established by law Kulikov V. Social imperatives for continuing economic reform // Russian Economic Journal. - 2000. - N1. - S. 3-12.

The standard of living is also assessed by indicators:

- the state of labor resources (average life expectancy, the level of education of the population, per capita consumption of basic foodstuffs in calories, the level of qualification of labor resources, the share of expenditures on education in GDP);

- development of the service sector (the number of doctors per 10,000 people, the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people, the provision of the population with housing, household appliances, etc.).

And the last group - indicators of economic efficiency. This group most characterizes the level of economic development, as it shows - directly or indirectly - the quality, condition and level of use of the country's fixed and circulating capital, labor resources. Among these indicators are the following:

a) labor productivity (in general, for industry and agriculture, for individual sectors and types of production);

b) the capital intensity of a unit of GDP and a specific type of product;

c) the return on assets of a unit of fixed assets;

d) material consumption per unit of GDP or specific types of products.

An important condition in the analysis of this group of indicators is the need to consider them not separately, but in connection with each other. For example, high labor productivity can be achieved at the cost of excessive intensification of labor, or huge capital expenditures and material resources.

Therefore, each of the indicators of the functioning of the country's economy, as a rule, is detailed and analyzed using private indicators that reflect the influence of various factors on the main one.

In recent years, the comparative competitiveness indicators developed by the IMF have been increasingly used in special studies and statistical information. This system of indicators was created to compare prices and costs in the manufacturing industry of the country in relation to the weighted average of the corresponding indicators of the most developed countries.

There are five indicators:

1. Unit costs for wages (per unit of output);

2. Normalized unit labor costs (per unit of output), i.е. output per man-hour worked;

3. The level of total unit costs by value added elements, i.e. indicators of unit costs of all primary factors of production;

4. Comparative analysis of industrial wholesale prices;

5. Comparative analysis of export prices for industrial products.

Despite all attempts to formulate an aggregate indicator of the efficiency of the functioning of the economy, which would also reflect the level of economic development of the country, such an indicator has not been created due to numerous difficulties in bringing together cost and natural values.

1.2 Economic development and economic growth

economic development education innovation

It is extremely difficult to measure economic development, therefore, economic growth is often used for quantitative assessment, i.e. change in the volume of goods and services produced in the country.

However, economic growth itself is highly controversial. Thus, it is possible to achieve an increase in the production and consumption of material goods due to the deterioration of their quality, due to savings on treatment facilities and the deterioration of living conditions, it is also possible to achieve a temporary increase in production due to the predatory exploitation of resources. Such growth is either unstable or completely meaningless. Therefore, economic growth makes sense when it is combined with social stability Galbraith K. Economic policy is measured by results // Problems of theory and practice of management. - 1999. - N5. - S. 32-37.

Moreover, rapid, zero, or even negative economic growth is not always indicative of rapid economic development, stagnation, or economic degradation.

For example, in the USA in the 1980s sales of personal computers grew from 1.1 to 9.5 million units, in value - from 3.1 to 27.7 billion dollars, while the dollar depreciated by 25% during this time. Thus, computers became cheaper, although their technical characteristics and quality grew. When calculating GDP, this moment led to an inaccurate reflection of the dynamics of economic development.

Nevertheless, for all its shortcomings, economic growth remains the most widely used criterion of economic development. The leading indicators of economic growth dynamics are:

- Growth of GDP/GNP or ND;

- growth rate of GDP/GNP or NI per capita;

- the growth rate of industrial production as a whole, by major sectors and per capita.

Economic statistics use growth rates, growth rates, and growth rates to study dynamics.

In practice, they usually talk about the growth rate, meaning by it the growth rate. Those. if they say that the growth of GDP was 5%, this means that the growth was 105%, and the increase was 5%.

Economic growth is determined by a number of factors. In economics, the theory of three factors of production, the founder of which was J.-B. Say. Its essence lies in the fact that labor, land and capital take part in creating the value of a product. Later, the interpretation of production factors received a deeper and broader interpretation. On present stage they usually include:

labor;

the earth;

· capital;

Entrepreneurial ability

· scientific and technical progress.

The factors of economic growth are interconnected and intertwined. Thus, labor is highly productive if the worker uses modern equipment and materials under the guidance of a capable entrepreneur in a well-functioning economic mechanism. Therefore, it is quite difficult to accurately determine the share of one or another factor of economic growth.

Let's take a closer look at each factor of economic growth. The most important factor is labor costs.

This factor is determined primarily by the population of the country. However, part of the population is not included in the number of able-bodied and does not enter the labor market. It includes students, pensioners, military personnel, etc. Those who want to work form the so-called labor force. In addition, the unemployed are singled out in the labor force, i.e. those who want to work but cannot find a job.

However, the change in labor costs by the number of employees does not fully reflect the actual state of affairs. The most accurate measure of labor costs is the indicator of the number of man-hours worked, which allows you to take into account the total cost of working time. The increase in the cost of working time depends on a number of factors: the rate of population growth, the desire to work, the level of unemployment, the level of pensions, etc. All factors change over time and across countries, creating initial differences in the pace and levels of economic development Borisov EF Economic theory. Tutorial. 2nd edition revised and enlarged. M. 2003.

Along with quantitative factors important role plays the quality of the labor force and, accordingly, labor costs in the production process. As the education and skills of workers increase, there is an increase in labor productivity, which contributes to an increase in the level and pace of economic growth. In other words, labor inputs can expand without any increase in working hours and the number of employees, but only through an increase in the quality of the labor force.

Another important factor in economic growth is capital - this is equipment, buildings and inventories. The fixed capital includes the housing stock because the people living in the houses benefit from the services provided by the houses. Factory buildings and offices with their equipment are factors of production because workers armed with more machines will produce more goods. Inventories also contribute to production.

The cost of capital depends on the amount of accumulated capital. In turn, the accumulation of capital depends on the rate of accumulation: the higher the rate of accumulation, the greater (ceteris paribus) the amount of capital investment. The increase in capital also depends on the range of accumulated assets - the larger they are, the lower, ceteris paribus, the rate of increase in capital, the rate of its growth.

At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the volume of fixed capital coming to one employee, i.e. capital-labor ratio is the decisive factor determining the dynamics of labor productivity. If, over a certain period, the volume of capital investment has increased, and the number of the labor force has increased to a greater extent, then labor productivity will fall, since the capital-labor ratio of each worker is reduced in the economy. Textbook edited by A. S. Bulatov. Moscow. 1997

An important factor in economic growth is land, or rather, the quantity and quality of natural resources. It is obvious that large reserves of various natural resources, the presence of fertile lands, favorable climatic and weather conditions, significant reserves of mineral and energy resources make a significant contribution to the country's economic growth. However, the availability of abundant natural resources is not always a self-sufficient factor in economic growth. For example, some countries in Africa and South America have significant reserves of natural resources, but are still on the list of backward countries. This means that only the efficient use of resources leads to economic growth.

Scientific and technological progress is an important engine of economic growth. The huge growth in per capita world GDP (by 19 times in 1900-2000) testifies to the decisive role played by technological progress in the 20th century.

It covers a number of phenomena that characterize the improvement of the production process. The scientific and technical process includes the improvement of technologies, new methods and forms of management and organization of production. Scientific and technological progress makes it possible to combine these resources in a new way in order to increase the final output. At the same time, as a rule, new, more efficient industries emerge. Increasing efficient production is becoming a major factor in economic growth.

The division of factors depending on the nature of growth (quantitative or qualitative) into intensive and extensive is widespread.

Extensive growth factors include:

· increasing the volume of investment while maintaining the existing level of technology;

increase in the number of employed workers;

· Growth of consumed raw materials, materials, fuel and other elements of working capital.

Intensive growth factors include:

· acceleration of scientific and technological progress (introduction of new equipment, technologies, by updating fixed assets, etc.);

· professional development of employees;

Improving the use of fixed and working capital;

Improving the efficiency of economic activity due to its better organization.

With the predominance of extensive growth factors, one speaks of an extensive type of economic development, with the predominance of intensive growth factors - of intensive.

With an extensive type of development, economic growth is achieved through a quantitative increase in factors of production, and with an intensive type, through their qualitative improvement and better use. Moreover, in this case, economic growth is possible even with decreasing rates of capital investments, and even with a decrease in their physical volume. Under conditions of extensive growth, the change in the ratio between its factors occurs relatively evenly, and the achievement of a maximum production output is made dependent mainly on the state of economic resources, especially on the combination of labor and capital costs, and only to a certain extent on scientific and technological progress.

2. ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE IN RUSSIA

2.1 Reform of the education system in Russia

Russia has been undergoing a reform of education for several years now, which is now increasingly called the more politically correct word "modernization". These transformations did not go unnoticed in society, divided into their supporters and opponents. In 2004, the problems of national education were also discussed in the highest echelons of power. In particular, President Vladimir Putin paid great attention to them in his Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. And in early December 2004, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the priority directions for the development of the domestic education system, prepared by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. Prime Minister Fradkov also identified three main areas of reform: ensuring the availability of education for all segments of the population, improving the quality of teaching and improving the financing of the sphere.

The essence of the reform is the introduction in Russia of a two-level system of higher education (bachelor and master), the creation of a system of preschool education, reducing the weekly load on school students, giving them the opportunity to choose those subjects that they need more in the future, and receive additional education.

The transition to a two-tier system is the task of the Bologna process. In 1999, in the Italian city of Bologna, a joint declaration was signed by the ministers of education of a number of European states, announcing the creation of a common European educational space. The countries that signed this declaration pledged by 2010 to develop comparable national education systems, criteria and methods for assessing its quality, to cooperate in the recognition of national education documents at the European level.

In general, the Bologna process provides for a set of interrelated measures aimed at bringing together educational systems and methods for assessing the quality of knowledge, academic degrees and qualifications in European countries. As a result of all the transformations, students should have greater freedom in choosing a place and study program, and the process of their employment in the European market will become easier.

In September 2003, Russia joined the Bologna Declaration. But it will be very difficult for our country to join the pan-European process, since the domestic educational system is traditionally far from the foreign one. In particular, the difficulty lies in the system of training Russian graduates. The transition to a two-tier education system was started in many Russian universities back in 1992, but it is not popular with us.

First of all, many did not understand the bachelor's degree, which most Russians continue to consider evidence of incomplete higher education. Domestic bachelor's programs, which differ significantly from Western ones, are also problematic. For four years of study, Russian universities, with rare exceptions, do not provide their bachelor graduates with full-fledged knowledge in the specialty, sufficient for them to be able to use it in practical work, since more than half of the academic hours are devoted to teaching fundamental disciplines. As a result, after receiving a bachelor's degree, the majority of students continue their studies and receive traditional Russian diplomas of specialists or become masters Sarkasov P. New approaches to the organization of higher education. // Alma Mater - 2005. - No. 11. -- With. 17-21..

In addition to the two-tier system of Russia, in order to fully enter the common European educational space, it is necessary to soon adopt a system of credits for the recognition of learning outcomes, as well as a supplement to a diploma of higher education similar to the European one, organize a quality assurance system comparable to the European educational institutions and university programs.

In addition, the modernization of education involves a new form of its financing, including the transition to the so-called normative-per capita method, when "money follows the pupil and student." However, the privatization of the educational system and the widespread introduction of paid higher education in the near future is out of the question. At the same time, the Ministry of Education proposes to give, in particular, secondary school teachers the opportunity to provide additional paid services to students Voronin T. Reflections on the prospects of higher education at a conference on science and education. // Alma Mater - 2004. - No. 12. -- With. 3-6..

Perhaps, none of the areas of modernization of the domestic system of higher education has caused so much controversy as the introduction of a unified state exam. The experiment on the introduction of the Unified State Examination has been going on in Russia since 2001, and every year more and more regions of the Russian Federation take part in it. And all this time, the confrontation between supporters (among them - officials, directors of secondary and secondary specialized educational institutions) and opponents of the unified state exam (which included most of the leaders of higher education) continued. The arguments of the first were that the USE is an effective tool for fighting corruption in universities, it is able to objectively identify the level of knowledge of students and the level of teaching in schools in various regions of Russia, as well as make it more accessible for young people from the outback to enter elite higher educational institutions. Opponents of the USE pointed out that it completely excludes a creative approach in the selection of future students by universities, which, as you know, is best implemented in a personal conversation between the examiner and the applicant. In their opinion, this is fraught with the fact that not the most gifted students, but those who managed to properly prepare and answer most of the test questions Vladimirov V. State University in a Market Economy will get into higher education. // Higher education in Russia - 2005. - No. 8. - With. 9-15.

However, the three years during which the experiment lasts have led to the fact that the opposing sides have suddenly taken a step towards each other. The rectors acknowledged that the Unified State Examination really helps children from remote places in Russia to get a higher education, that the work of admissions committees has become less laborious and more transparent. And the supporters of the experiment realized that corruption had migrated from universities to secondary schools, that the introduction of the Unified State Examination was associated with a number of organizational difficulties, that the unified state exam could not be the only form of testing the knowledge of applicants, and listened to the arguments of the rectors, who had long been talking about the need to provide benefits to applicants universities to winners of Olympiads, including regional ones.

It was previously assumed that the USE would be officially introduced throughout Russia in 2005. However, the shortcomings identified during this experiment led to the fact that, at the initiative of the Minister of Education and Science, Andrei Fursenko, the experiment was extended until 2008.

The experiment related to the USE on the introduction of state nominal financial obligations (GIFO) has also been extended. The essence of the GIFO is that a graduate, based on the points scored during the Unified State Examination, is issued a monetary certificate, which is intended to pay for tuition at a university. Unlike the USE, this project was less promoted and information about it rarely became available to the general public. Perhaps this is due to the fact that over the several years during which the experiment lasted, more questions than answers appeared.

Initially, it was obvious that GIFO was an expensive project, so it was carried out on a smaller scale than the USE experiment. Only a few universities from Mari El, Chuvashia, and Yakutia took part in it. But the results of the experiment for the 2002/03 academic year revealed the fact of overspending of public funds. It turned out that the cost of category "A" GIFO (the best results in the Unified State Examination) was too high and it is beneficial for universities to accept as many excellent students as possible.

Rates were immediately cut and the next year the GIFO experiment was carried out according to a different scheme. It ceased to bring material benefits to universities. To the rectors' objections that even the most high stakes GIFO cannot fully compensate for the cost of educating one student, the initiators of the experiment answered that the GIFO provides for covering only part of the costs.

However, despite all the imperfection and cost of the GIFO experiment, it is impossible to completely abandon it today. Because in essence this is a scheme of the so-called per capita principle of financing universities. This is an alternative to the estimated principle of financing, from which, as is known, the Russian education system intends to leave, and in addition, an alternative to the introduction of fully paid education in the country. Now many, in particular the Russian Union of Rectors and a number of high-ranking officials of the Ministry of Education and Science, are proposing to back up the GIFO with a system of educational loans that students will take from public and private banks, as well as from commercial companies. The first positive results of providing educational loans to students of the country's leading universities are already there. However, this idea has many critics who believe that not all regions of Russia are ready for the introduction of educational loans today, but only the most economically developed ones, and the majority of the country's population does not yet trust the new financing mechanism. In addition, even in the United States, which is prosperous from the point of view of the financial and credit system, where education on credit is widely developed, the return of such loans is a big problem, to say nothing of Russia.

2.2 Development of the higher education system

Let us consider the development of the system of higher education in Russia since the early 1990s. According to the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation, about 109.4 million people in Russia aged 15 and over have a basic general education or higher, which is 90.2% of this age group. Compared with 1989, the number of people with the above level of education increased by 18.3 million people, or 20%. At the same time, 71.4 million people (59%) of the population aged 15 and over have vocational education (higher, secondary and primary).

In total, from 1989 to 2004, the number of specialists with higher education increased by 6.6 million people (by 52%), with secondary vocational education by 11.2 million people (by 52%), with primary vocational education by 11.2 million people (by 52%). 0.7 million people (by 5%). According to the results of the census, the number of people with postgraduate education (who completed postgraduate studies, doctoral studies, residency) amounted to 4 thousand people. In addition, the number of people with secondary education increased by 5% (1 million).

Among other things, in terms of quantitative characteristics, there is an increase in the level of education among young people. So, according to the State Statistics Committee, for 1989-2004. 7.1 million specialists with higher and 8.3 million specialists with secondary vocational education were trained and graduated. At the same time, the number of young people aged 16-29 with higher education increased by 42.5% compared to 1989, and with secondary vocational education by 7.7%. Per 1,000 people of this age, there are 112 people with higher education (84 in 1989) and 225 people with secondary vocational education (223 in 1989). At the same time, the number of boys and girls aged 16-29 with only primary general education, increased by 2.1 times over the above period and amounted to 0.5 million people, of which 70% are not studying.

At the beginning of the 2004 academic year, the number of students in the country increased 2.1 times compared to 1992 and amounted to 5.95 million people. At the same time, similar trends were observed in the growth in the number of higher educational institutions (by 2 times), the number of which by 2005 amounted to 1039 (Figure 1). At the same time, if the highest growth rates in the number of universities were observed before 1999 (average growth rates were 8.1% per year), then for students the picture is the opposite (12.3%).

Fig. 1. Dynamics of the number of universities and students in Russia (at the beginning of the academic year)

There is also an increase in the number of teaching staff, the number of which increased from 1990 to 2004 by 54.6% to 339.6 thousand people. (Figure 2). At the same time, there is a steady growth in the ratio of the number of students per teacher. Thus, at the beginning of the 2004/2005 academic year, there were 18 students per teacher in the country, which is more than 36% more than in the early 1990s.

Fig.2. The ratio of students and teaching staff (at the beginning of the academic year) www.gks.ru - Federal State Statistics Service.

In terms of the provision of budgetary resources, secondary education in Russia is facing serious underfunding. Thus, according to expert estimates, the amount of funding for the education sector in Russia is about 4% of GDP, while 9.3% of GDP per capita per secondary school student. In countries of a comparable level of development, expenditures per student range from 20 to 25% of per capita GDP.

It should also be noted that in addition to quantitative assessments, it is necessary to take into account the qualitative assessments of the education system. So, it is necessary to assess the level of knowledge and skills that students receive, and how much these knowledge and skills are in demand by the economy at the present time. In this regard, it is advisable to consider the question of how quickly people with disabilities are employed and how effectively they work. different kind education.

It should be noted that in Russia in recent years there have been processes of growth in the employment of graduates in the national economy of the country (Figure 3).

Fig.3. Distribution of people employed in the Russian economy by level of education www.gks.ru - Federal State Statistics Service.

However, despite the above trends, in Russia a significant proportion of vocational education graduates work outside their specialty. We also note that against the background of the above processes of employment of the population with higher education, the unemployment rate for this category has not changed much over the past 10 years. The main increase in unemployment falls on the population with secondary general education.

Fig.4. Distribution of the number of unemployed by level of education www.gks.ru - Federal State Statistics Service.

In addition, despite the wide coverage of education, its level compared to foreign education is rather ambiguous. In particular, according to a number of expert assessments (OECD) of students' knowledge and skills based on tests, in comparison with OECD countries, the Russian education system does not look as effective and developed as it might seem at first glance. For a number of indicators (for example, scientific literacy) in Russia, the level is below the average.

It is possible that these assessments are too subjective, but at the same time, it is obvious that the Russian education system is still for the most part too theorized and poorly aimed at practical application, and is not flexible enough in modern conditions. For example, in most cases, after receiving a diploma of higher education, a person has to bear additional costs (material, time) for retraining, that is, one can question the effectiveness of investments in human capital in a number of Russian educational institutions. At the same time, there is a shortage of specialists in a wide range areas, which can be confirmed, for example, by the significant increase in recent years in the number of foreign managers in a number of companies whose development strategies are oriented towards international standards.

2.3 Results of the socio-economic development of Russia

In general, the volume of Russia's GDP for 9 months of 2005 amounted to 15385.4 billion rubles in current prices. The growth rate of its real volume in the third quarter of this year amounted to 7% relative to the same period last year (APPG), relative to the II quarter of 2005 - 15.0%. In the 1st and 2nd quarters, GDP growth amounted to 5.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The GDP deflator index for the 3rd quarter of 2005 against the APPG was 20.6%.

On the whole, the volume of GDP in January-September 2005 amounted to 15385.4 billion rubles in current prices, the growth rate of its real volume compared to 9 months of 2004 amounted to 6.2%.

Fig.5. Dynamics of real GDP 2004-2005 (quarterly) www.cbr.ru - The Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Considering the sectoral structure of GDP growth, it can be noted that the most dynamic growth in the third quarter of that year was observed in fishing and fish farming - 12% (to APPG), construction - 11.1%, in wholesale and retail trade - 12%, in hotels and in the restaurant sector - 7%, in the field of other communal, social and personal services - 8.2%, as well as in the sector of real estate operations, rent and provision of services - 9%.

Data on the relative contribution of key sectors to economic growth are shown in the figure below:

Fig.6. Contribution of key sectors of the economy to economic growth (%) www.cbr.ru - The Central Bank of the Russian Federation

As can be seen from the diagram, the structure of economic growth has undergone some changes compared to the third quarter of 2004. In particular, we can observe a trend towards a reduction in the contribution of the extractive sector to the economic growth to 0.7 percentage points. compared to 0.94 p.p. in the APPG, as well as a reduction in the contribution of manufacturing industries from 1.5 p.p. up to 0.92 p.p. and wholesale and retail trade from 1.3 p.p. to 1.22 p.p. The contribution to GDP growth was increased by the sector of real estate operations, rent and provision of services (up to 0.7 p.p. compared to 0.49 p.p. in the APPG), the transport and communications sector (up to 0.62 p.p.). compared to 0.56 pp in the APPG), as well as the sector of utilities, social and personal services (up 0.16 pp compared to 0.1 pp in the APPG). The relative contribution of construction to economic growth remained approximately at the level of 2004, however, in general, the growth rates of the industry remain stably high.

In addition, we note that the reduction in the contribution to GDP growth of some key sectors of the economy was to some extent offset by the growth of such industries as the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, healthcare and the provision of social services, and the provision of educational services.

2.4 Strategy of the Russian Federation in the field of development of science and innovations for the period up to 2010

Recently, in the media and statements of officials, there is often an opinion about the need for the country to switch to an innovative development path. According to the head of the Ministry of Economic Development G. Gref: “We have no other alternative than to switch to a new development model based not on the forced growth in the extraction of primary raw materials and fuel, but on the growth of intellectual capital, innovation, the development of high-tech manufacturing industries that are competitive in the world market » Weekly Analytical Review. REO Bulletin. Socio-economic development of Russia in 2005 No. 208. dated 12.10.2005.

Unfortunately, today's Russian science, as well as high-tech business, with rare exceptions, do not show outstanding results. This is largely due to the fact that over the past 15 years Russia has been going through a painful transformational period. In addition, established in Soviet period the system of applied science (with a very high level of development) was initially focused primarily on the needs of the military-industrial complex, which also affected its position in the new conditions.

To date, most research organizations have not been able to successfully adapt to market conditions. Some quantitative indicators indicate that Russia is seriously lagging behind developed and some developing countries. Thus, the amount of costs per one employed in research and development in Russia is 8 times less than in South Korea and 12 times less than in Germany, the coefficient of inventive activity compared to the US in Russia is 10.8 times lower.

Therefore, at present, in the context of relative stabilization of macroeconomic indicators, the problem of reforming the system of education, science and stimulating innovation is acute.

To achieve these goals, in late 2004 - early 2005, the Ministry of Education and Science developed the Development Strategy of the Russian Federation in the field of science and innovation development for the period up to 2010. The strategy provides for 2 options for the development of this area: inertial and active.

As can be seen from the very names of development scenarios, each of them differs, first of all, in the activity of the state in the field of reforming science and stimulating innovation. Below are the main targets for the inertial and active scenarios

Table 1

Scenario of development in the field of reforming science and stimulating innovation http://mon.gov.ru/ Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

To achieve these target indicators, the active scenario involves a set of measures in the following main areas:

· formation of a favorable tax regime and customs policy;

· improvement of the legislative base in the field of protection and use of intellectual property, venture investment;

· reforming and supporting the system of higher education, fundamental and applied research;

· Creation of an effective innovation infrastructure that ensures the transfer of the results of the research and development sector to the Russian and global economy.

To implement the active version of the strategy, it will be necessary to allocate 789.5 billion rubles, of which:

577.6 billion rubles - funds from the federal budget;

55.1 billion rubles - funds from the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation;

156.8 billion rubles - funds from extrabudgetary sources.

In addition, within the framework of the Strategy implementation management system, it is planned to create a Coordinating and Expert Council, which will include scientists and specialists in relevant fields, representatives of the business community and federal government bodies. The main executors of the strategy will be the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Energy, and industry departments.

CONCLUSION

Thus, economic growth is an increase in the volume of goods and services produced over a certain period of time.

The increase in total production is calculated as a percentage relative to the previous period.

Economic growth can be measured in natural cost indicators. Comparison of production volumes in physical units (tons, kilometers, etc.) helps to avoid the resulting inflation. However, it is not always possible to compare the former types of goods and services. Therefore, a cost measurement is applied, cleared of price increases.

The main indicators are:

- an increase in the annual volume of GDP (GNP, ND)

-increasing the share of GDP per capita of the country

Economic growth depends not only on general trends determined by medium- and long-term cycles, but also on the level of development of the national economy of the country, the form of the political system, the nature of the economic policy pursued, etc.

In general, the priority directions for the development of the education system, approved by the government, should be positively assessed. The implementation of the planned activities will make it possible to make serious progress in the issue of unification of Russian and Western educational standards. However, until there are real actions, in addition to experimenting with the USE, it is difficult to say when the reform will really move into practice.

Of course, Russia needs education reform. Under the current system, one cannot count on a significant increase in human capital, which in principle determines the prospects for the development of the entire economy. The scientists of the world have already come to the conclusion that the most important resource of the economy is the human resource, the possession of which on a national scale determines its position in the world. Of course, the factor of using this resource is also important, that is, to what extent the state can give people the opportunity to realize the accumulated potential. However, if this potential is wasted, it may take years to restore it, and the first problem can be solved in much more time. short time. Thus, if the Government does not act in this direction, Russia's competitiveness in the world will decrease annually.

The reform of education, first of all, should be carried out in the context of a fundamental improvement in quality, namely, who and how teaches in Russian educational institutions, as far as it is applicable in real life and corresponds to the realities of today. The reform of the Russian education system should consist of the following activities:

1) A sharp increase in salaries and tougher requirements for teachers. We need a strict re-certification of the teaching staff, as a result of which 10-20% of them will lose the right to teach, attracting specialists for teaching from real sectors of the economy;

2) Fighting corruption in the teaching and teaching environment;

3) Investments in the material base of education (buildings, sports facilities, computer equipment, etc.);

4) Improving teaching methods, taking into account specialization, evaluation of textbooks by independent experts, a radical reform of the system of teaching foreign languages;

Some acceleration of economic growth in the third quarter of 2005 was quite unexpected. If there is no significant reduction in growth rates before the new year, then in general the GDP growth rate for the year may be slightly higher than 6%. Regarding structural changes in GDP growth, one can note the growing role of the service sector compared to the decreasing contribution of industry. Both extractive and manufacturing industries have slowed down their growth compared to the previous year, which was generally expected. At the same time, such sectors of the economy as construction, real estate transactions, rent and provision of services, wholesale and retail trade are growing at a stably high rate, and their growth has every chance to continue in the medium term.

Further dynamics in the development of manufacturing industries will depend on how much domestic producers will be able to increase their competitiveness compared to imported products. Of course, from the point of view of the quality of economic growth, meeting the growing consumer demand through the production of high-quality domestic products would be more preferable.

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The concept of economic growth, its indicators and factors. Rates and efficiency of economic growth. Keynesian and neoclassical models of growth. Modern economic growth and strategic prospects for the socio-economic development of Russia.

Education and its role in economic development: modern concepts

A. A. Shilyaev, Ph.D.

As society develops, technology improves, globalization intensifies, the priority of various factors in economic development is changing. Some become more significant, the share of others decreases. The overall picture is also changing under the influence of improving our knowledge of social processes.

The future development of any state is largely determined by how successfully it managed today to create conditions for the development and multiplication of those factors that will be decisive for the growth of the well-being of its citizens in the coming decades.

I

People have always wondered why some nations are richer and others poorer. If we start from a relatively late period and recall the mercantilists, then they immediately, without hesitation, took it and decided that the richer the state would be, the more money it accumulated. The Physiocrats sincerely considered “productive” only the labor that is associated with the cultivation of the land, all other activities, respectively, were considered “unproductive”, and therefore did not add anything to the treasury of national welfare.

Neither the mercantilists nor the physiocrats (as well as subsequent generations and representatives of other schools and directions of economic thought) managed to grasp the immensity, although both of them were right in their own way and for their time. But the thought did not stand still.

So, already at the end of the XVIII Adam Smith says that the basis of the wealth of nations is the division of labor and the freedom that the market provides, and in accordance with which individuals themselves decide what and how to do. But the division of labor does not arise by itself. Different people are inclined to perform certain activities to varying degrees. Education and training - skills acquired in the workplace - help develop these tendencies. This leads to an increase in labor productivity, an increase in output and an increase in income. This train of thought leads Adam Smith to pay considerable attention to the problems of education and the role that it plays (it was already beginning to play at that time). The concept of human capital is not explicitly found in Smith - it will take another 200 years - but, apparently, his implied understanding of the role of education in increasing the welfare of both the individual and the nation as a whole allowed Joseph Stiglitz to call Smith in our time "father of human capital theory".

In the first half of the last century, economists had a more or less clear understanding of the factors of economic growth:

1. Earth
2. work
3. capital
4. entrepreneurial ability

But just as natural scientists were constantly trying to penetrate deeper and deeper into the depths of matter, so economists were increasingly unhappy with this level of aggregation. The categories of capital and labor seemed too general. In addition, calculations showed that a significant part of the economic growth could not be attributed to the factors used. This is how the concept of “residual growth” appeared (residual) and it has been suggested that it is caused by technological changes in production methods. Over time, this hypothesis was confirmed, but this concept in itself was too broad to allow scientists to rest on this.In particular, and important for our topic, the existence of a "remainder" can be explained by a change in the quality of the factors used. But this immediately puts before us the question: what caused these changes in quality? The discovery of the “residue” did not in itself explain how and why the level of technology affects economic growth, but stimulated the search for answers. (See also Appendix II.)

II

In 50-60 years. of the last century, the theory of human capital has not yet received the proper level of development, and since the end of the 60s. interest in the topic of economic growth began to fade. Research has received a new impetus since the late 80s, when scientists became interested in the conditions and factors that determine long-term growth.This area is called the theory of endogenous growth, i.e. growth driven by internal rather than external factors. However, the further development of this direction could no longer be imagined within the framework of the previous paradigm. This is where all the ideas that had accumulated by that time about human capital and its components came in handy. On the other hand, without this, it would be impossible to revive interest in the problems of growth in a new capacity.

But it was not enough just to say “human capital”, to shift the emphasis. Human capital is a very multifaceted concept in itself, its formation depends on many conditions. Now it was necessary to determine the factors influencing the quality of human capital, and to determine, in turn, which factors are more and less significant for economic growth. Such information would allow governments and other institutions that influence the formation and implementation of a particular policy, to more consciously influence the fate of individuals and society as a whole, to better understand what the consequences of certain decisions may be in the long term.

It would be better to start with a definition. Let us dwell here on the definition of human capital, which is accepted in OECD (my translation - A.Sh.):

Human capital is the knowledge, skills, abilities and characteristics realized in individuals and contributing to the creation of personal, social and economic well-being.

There was quite a heated debate about the success of the term itself. It is impossible to say unequivocally that now they have come to naught. But be that as it may, the term is quite instrumental. First, it clarifies and expands the concept of capital, by which economists have traditionally meant physical capital. Secondly, the clarification “human” draws our attention to the fact that this factor is no less important and deserves separate consideration. Thirdly, the use of the concept of capital is appropriate, since its growth and maintenance requires investment, and this applies to people to the same extent as to physical capital. Just as in the case of physical capital, investments in human capital provide returns over a longer or shorter period of time. But in order to fully account for these investments, it is important to have a more detailed system of national accounts. Dale Jorgenson and Barbara Fromeni have done such work and have shown that investment in human capital is much higher than investment in physical capital.The accumulation of human capital is a dynamic process; skills acquired at one stage of the life cycle will affect the initial conditions and methods (technologies) for an individual to acquire new skills and knowledge at subsequent stages.If we translate this into the language economic theory, then it can be said that investment in the human capital of children gives a greater return than investment in the human capital of older workers. This is the conclusion that James Heckman and colleagues came to (Fig. 1).

Picture 1.

The concepts of depreciation and disposal are applicable to a certain extent to human capital, as well as to physical capital: the acquired knowledge and skills serve a person, but as they age, as well as in connection with technological progress, they are forgotten, become obsolete and cease to be in demand. So there is a need to update and improve them.

Human capital is a complex concept. Therefore, it can be viewed from many perspectives:

• in terms of the characteristics formed in an individual (see the definition above) that make up the concept of human capital
• in terms of its use in practice throughout life, its impact on the quality of life of both individuals and society as a whole
• in terms of institutions, conditions, factors under the influence of which the formation and accumulation of human capital occurs

Here we will touch only on the last point and only in relation to education. But before moving on to a discussion of the role of education in the formation of human capital, some more explanations should be given regarding its formation.

Behind recent decades views on the process of accumulation of human capital have undergone significant changes, and the concept itself has expanded significantly. If earlier the main merits in the formation of human capital were attributed mainly to formal education, today it is recognized that a significant role in this belongs to the family, upbringing, interaction with peers, the quality of health care and nutrition, the quality of the environment, social ties, training at work, etc. All this is directly related to the definition of policy in terms of the formation of human capital. If there are so many components, and resources are limited, then the question arises, which aspects should be given preference, how to distribute efforts between the elements of such a complex system so that they all develop and interact harmoniously?

III

Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woussmann identify at least three mechanisms through which education can influence economic growth:

• education increases the human capital of people employed in the economy, thereby increasing their labor productivity;
• education can increase the innovative capacity of the economy;
• education can facilitate the dissemination and transfer of knowledge needed to implement new technologies developed somewhere and by someone else.

We have already said () that the systematic study of various aspects of education that affect economic growth, and various factors that affect the quality of education, began relatively recently. But already at the beginning of the last century, in one of his works on the state of the financial system and politics in Russia, Professor I.Kh. Ozerov noted the importance of educating the population for the development of industry. According to Ozerov, the state should finance education more actively and on a large scale, since “donations from the treasury for the needs of primary public education accounted for only 0.66%” of government spending. In relative terms, compared to other states, Russia looks extremely unattractive: to the top XX V. in Russia, 37.6 kopecks are spent on the education of one person. (only 7.8 kopecks come from the treasury), while in the USA - 4.86 rubles, in New Zealand - 5.74 rubles, in the Canadian province of Manitoba - 9.07 rubles.

Certainly, there must be some level of spending on education, but how high should it be? Thus, based on the OECD data on the assessment of the performance of students from different countries, Hanushek and Woussmann conclude that there is no relationship between education costs and student performance. On average, high-spending countries provide the same level of education quality as lower-spending countries.In other words, there is no statistically reliable evidence that an increase in the cost of education will inevitably lead to an increase in its quality. This conclusion can serve as an effective argument in the dispute between politicians and representatives of the profession, who demand a steady increase in spending on educational needs.

It has long been observed that people with education work more efficiently and earn higher wages. This led to the assumption that the rate of economic growth depends on the average duration of education. Indeed, comparisons of GDP per capita growth rates depending on the average length of schooling in secondary school revealed a positive relationship. But when the same calculations were made using student test scores, the relationship between study duration and growth rates disappeared.This means that the duration of education is not a factor that determines the quality of education, but through this the performance of the economy to the extent that it is determined by it. With regard to the practical side of the matter, these data may serve as a signal that the costs associated with an increase in the duration of training - which some politicians call for, appealing to the increasing amount of knowledge required from a modern person - may not justify themselves and place an additional burden on the budgets of all levels, incl. and individual citizens.

These two examples show how people's perceptions of the impact of education on economic performance have changed. They tell us that the concept of the quality of education and, moreover, its assessment of things are far from self-evident, that considerations dictated by common sense and worldly logic are often not confirmed by scientific research.

Today, it is no longer enough to simply assert (believe) that education has a beneficial effect on almost all aspects of people's lives. Modern education policy cannot be based on conjectures and assumptions about how certain factors can affect the quality of education. Understanding this made us abandon some methods of assessing the quality of education and look for new ones. Currently, the most indicative measure of the quality of education is the international standardized test system. PISA (in mathematics, reading, science literacy), developed and administered by OECD.

We have seen that the amount of resources allocated to education and the duration of training are not in themselves factors that have a decisive impact on the quality of education. There are a number of reasons and conditions without which the education system cannot count on providing high results. However, this topic deserves a separate discussion.

IV

Perhaps only the theory of human capital made it possible to get closer to understanding how complex the fabric of economic life is, how economic indicators, the level of economic and cultural development depend on many factors and conditions. Previous approaches, with their attempts to reduce all problems of growth to a few key factors, proved too abstract to be based on responsible long-term economic policy. Especially in our time, when the level of human impact on the environment practically knows no boundaries, and the rate of this impact and its intensity only increase over time.

The factors that the theory of human capital helped to see are in complex interaction with each other, their impact on economic growth is different, depends on the initial conditions in which this or that economy is located, it is not constant and can change over time.

In the field of education, the importance of understanding the links between human capital formation and economic development is all the more important, since most decisions in this area are long-term in nature, their consequences may be manifested later. long years. Moreover, many decisions, once made, can have consequences for specific people that can no longer be reversed or easily corrected.

Another important difference between the current understanding of the costs of building human capital and the more recent one is that these funds are now considered, for the most part as an investment, not as final consumption. This requires a completely different approach to managing these costs, on the one hand, and creates completely different expectations regarding their usefulness, on the other.

In fact, we are talking about the formation of a new paradigm in economic theory. And this, in turn, makes special demands on the knowledge and skills (read human capital) of those who are involved in the formation and implementation of the educational policy of the state.

Appendix I

Appendix II