CHAPTER 1. STATUS OF THE ISSUE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH
1.1. Escalation of local international contradictions at the present historical stage.
1.2 Analysis of approaches to assessing strategic stability.
1.3. Possibilities of predicting threats to the safety of objects using the methods of the theory of cycles.
1.4. Assessment of the situation in the zone of local conflict by methods of targeted forecasting.
CHAPTER 2: DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF THREATS TO INFORMATION SECURITY OF OBJECTS ON THE BASIS OF THE CYCLIC DYNAMICS OF THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT.
2.1. Systemic objects of the real world.
2.2. Cyclic factors natural environment and their place in the life cycle of the development of heterogeneous systems. ^
2.2.1. Cyclicity of objects of the real world. ^
2.2.2. The main cyclic factors of the natural environment.
2.2.3; Cyclic potential of heterogeneous systems.
2.3. Cyclic environmental factors influencing the situation in the local conflict zone. ^
2.4. Determination of the influence of cyclic factors on the direction and place of development of threats to the security of objects in the course of a local conflict. ^
2.5. Forecasting security threats to objects during a local conflict. ^
CHAPTER 3. THREATS FORECASTING METHOD
INFORMATION SECURITY OF OBJECTS.
3.1.1. Development of a set of algorithms for predicting threats to information security of objects based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment.
3.2. Comprehensive consideration of cyclic factors of the natural environment in the coverage of the situation in the zone of local conflict.
3.3. Assessment of the reliability of forecasting threats to information security of objects based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment.
4.2. Prevention of threats to the information security of the state in solving the problems of strategic deterrence?.
4.3. Basic principles and approaches to solving the problems of strategic stability in the North Caucasus region:.
4.4. Simulation of US actions during the expansion of the zone of the counter-terrorist operation.
Introduction to the thesis (part of the abstract) on the topic "Model and method for predicting threats to information security of objects based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment"
Transition period At the turn of the 21st century, it is associated with significant changes in the balance of power on the world stage, the emergence of new centers of economic and political interests, and is accompanied by an increase in confrontation at the intellectual level. The priorities in national interests and the nature of internal and external threats are changing. Information security issues come to the fore in the system of ensuring the national security of the state.
In the "National Security Concept" and "Information Security Doctrine" Russian Federation strengthening information security is named among the most important long-term tasks aimed at protecting the Russian Federation; various fields life of society and the state. It is noted that the threats to the information security of Russia and the methods of its provision; are common to these areas. At the same time, in every sphere of life of society and the state, along with common methods ensuring the information security of the Russian Federation, private methods and forms can be used, due to the specifics of the factors affecting the state of information security of the Russian Federation. At the same time, both these documents and the "Federal Law on State Forecasting" emphasize the need to improve methods for assessing the information obtained and predicting the security of the state in various spheres of life, which in turn requires significant material and financial costs, as well as certain organizational efforts.
At the same time in last years forecasting methods have been developed that develop the ideas and approaches of the theory of rhythms, the foundations of which were formulated by our outstanding scientists
A.L. Chizhevsky, K.E. Tsiolkovsky, V.I. Vernadsky, N.A. Kozyrev, N.D. Kondratiev and L.N. Gumilyov. It is shown that heterogeneous conflict situations natural, technical, social, economic and other nature are subject to some general laws and can be considered from the point of view of a unified systematic approach. These methods are based on taking into account the influence of the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment - impacts of any nature that occur with a certain frequency, and allow for short-, medium- and long-term forecasting of heterogeneous conflicts. At the same time, the most effective is the targeted forecasting of conflict situations, which makes it possible to predict not only the fact of their occurrence, but also indicate the nature, specific time and place of occurrence.
The use of targeted forecasting methods that do not require the use of large arrays of initial data to obtain reliable forecasts and the involvement of large analytical, including computing power, can increase the completeness and reliability of predictive assessments of the development of the situation in local conflict zones in order to develop recommendations for preventing the implementation of: security threats objects in a particular region and effective targeted management of the situation in this region.
In this regard, the improvement of the forecasting methodology, including in the direction of taking into account natural rhythms, is necessary and justified, and conducting a study on the development of targeted forecasting methods based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment is relevant and timely.
The purpose of this study is to develop a model and method for predicting threats to information security of objects, which allows, based on the minimum amount of initial data, to indicate in advance the nature of a possible threat in the life cycle of heterogeneous systems, as well as the place, time and probability of its occurrence.
In accordance with the goal set, the following main tasks should be solved in the work:
Determination of the main provisions of a systematic approach in predicting threats to the information security of objects based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment;
Determination of the main regularities of the influence of the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment on the information security of heterogeneous objects;
The ranking of the identified patterns in order to specify the most dangerous periods the emergence of threats to information security in the life cycle of heterogeneous objects;
Development of a model for predicting threats to information security of objects, which differs from the existing ones taking into account the most significant cyclical factors environment that affect the occurrence of threats in the life cycle of heterogeneous systems with reference to geographic coordinates(place of operation of the system);
Development of a new method for predicting threats to information security of objects, based on the proposed model and allowing targeted prediction of threats to the security of objects, indicating time periods of increased probability of occurrence, nature of manifestation, direction (area) and place of occurrence.,
Dissertation conclusion on the topic "Methods and systems of information security, information security", Buzinov, Andrey Aleksandrovich
The results of the study can find the following practical use: to determine the time of attempts of unauthorized access to information and influence on informational resources, information infrastructure of heterogeneous objects (systems); to determine the time effective application weapons systems and military equipment(IWT) to counter the real and eventual enemy; in order to monitor high-risk facilities, the disruption of which may lead to emergencies, and forecasting emergency situations; in order to effective implementation military operations, implementation specific tasks(concept, operation, etc.); when planning a set of measures for the expedient transformation of social, economic, military, and other systems.
The work meets modern requirements for conversion and dual-use technologies, because Applicable to both civil and military fields
The provisions of the dissertation are implemented in 12 research papers. The results obtained and the conclusions of the dissertation research have found their practical use in direct coverage of the situation on the territory Chechen Republic. The dissertation was tested at the scientific and practical seminar of military unit 45807. The main results of the study were reported to the leadership of military unit 45807, military unit 99727, military unit 60130.
The experience of implementing the results of the dissertation research confirms the great interest of government, law enforcement, industrial and commercial structures in the further development of the problem under consideration. This gives grounds to conclude that the first results obtained along this path can be considered as a significant contribution to the theory and practice of predicting threats to the information security of heterogeneous objects, contributing to an increase in the effectiveness of preventive measures in solving the problems of Russia's strategic stability.
CONCLUSION
As part of the research carried out in the dissertation work, it was shown that when predicting threats to information security of heterogeneous objects, forecasting methods can be used that develop the ideas and approaches of the theory of rhythms, the foundations of which were formulated by our outstanding scientists A.L. Chizhevsky, K.E. Tsiolkovsky, V .I.Vernadsky, N.A.Kozyrev, N.D.Kondratiev and L.N.Gumilyov. It is shown that heterogeneous conflict situations of a natural, technical, social, economic and other nature are subject to certain general laws and can be considered from the point of view of a unified systematic approach. These methods are based on taking into account the influence of the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment - the impacts of any nature, manifested with a certain periodicity
In this case, the method of targeted forecasting is the most effective. The use of this method does not require the use of large arrays of initial data to obtain reliable forecasts, as well as the involvement of large analytical, including computing, capacities. This can significantly increase the completeness and reliability of predictive assessments of the development of the situation in zones of local conflicts in order to develop recommendations for preventing the implementation of threats to the security of objects in a particular region and for effective purposeful management of the situation in this region.
The following scientific and practical results were obtained in the dissertation work:
1. The main provisions of a systematic approach are determined in predicting threats to information security of objects based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment;
2. The main regularities of the influence of the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment on the information security of heterogeneous objects are determined;
3. A ranking of the identified patterns was carried out in order to specify the most dangerous periods of information security threats in the life cycle of heterogeneous objects by place and time;
4. A model and method for predicting threats to information security of objects based on the cyclical dynamics of the natural environment have been developed, including:
Algorithm for multivariate analysis of the state of the system (situations in the zone of local conflict);
Algorithm for predicting time periods of increased probability of security threats;
Algorithm for predicting the nature of the manifestation of threats to the security of objects in the zone of local conflict;
Algorithm for Predicting Directions (Regions) of Development of Security Threats in a Local Conflict Zone.
Practical value work is:
In the development of algorithmic and software method of predicting threats to the security of heterogeneous objects;
In system development preventive measures to prevent the implementation of security threats in the local conflict zone based on the results of targeted forecasting;
In developing a methodological approach for solving a wide range tasks of targeted forecasting to prevent the implementation of threats to the security of heterogeneous objects.
The practical value of the work is confirmed by research and practical applications the results obtained.
The implementation of the results of the dissertation consists in the implementation of the model, methods and algorithms for predicting threats to the information security of objects based on the cyclic dynamics of the natural environment.
The developed method and algorithmic tools are part of the R&D carried out on the orders of the Naval Scientific Committee of the Navy, the Russian Aerospace Agency, the VNU General Staff of the Russian Federation and the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation.
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93. BASIC CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS
94. Aspect defined angular distance between planets in ecliptic coordinates: 0, 30, 60, 45, 90, 120, 135, 150 and 180 degrees.
95. Outer cycle cycle formed by real RZF's. one time or another.
96. Internal cycle - a cycle formed by the resonant interaction of the external cycle and the static RZF of the system, at the level of an event-significant angular distance, a multiple of 45 degrees.
97. Reliability of the forecast - an assessment of the probability of the implementation of the forecast for a given confidence interval.
98. Longitude - one of the celestial coordinates, counted from the point of the vernal equinox;
99. The life cycle is a set of interrelated processes of a sequential change in the state of a system from the moment of its creation (emergence) to the moment of death, formed by the system's own qualities and its interaction with the environment.
100. Cycle stress index is the degree of impact of a particular cycle on a functioning system. The tension index is compiled; disharmonious phases of cycles - angular distances between planets - 0, 45, 90, 135, 180 degrees.
101. Index of purposeful development of the system (IN) cyclic potential of the system, formed; specific cycles on phases multiple of 45° and expressed in RZF weight coefficients.
102. Coalition group of two or more systems.
103. Coefficient of cyclicity is a coefficient that takes into account the phase of development of a cyclic indicator at a particular point in time.
104. The coefficient of damage to the purposeful development of the system or the tension index (IN) is the inverse value of the index of the purposeful development of the system.
105. Equilibrium coefficient (Kp) relative value, which characterizes the degree of damage to the purposeful development of two or more (in the case of coalition formation) opposing systems.
106. Modeling of events Forecast of event regularities due to a certain angular position of rhythm-setting factors and identified on the basis of a retrospective statistical analysis.
107. Forecast error - a posteriori deviation of the forecast from the actual state of the object;,
108. Forecast background is a set of conditions external to the object of forecasting that are essential for solving the problem of forecasting.
109. Rhythm-setting factors - a list of objects of energy carriers used to predict events. The main rhythm-setting factors are the planets of the solar system.
110. Static RZF rhythm-setting factors characterizing the system at the time of its creation and expressed in ecliptic or other coordinate system.
111. The system of structural-temporal maps is a source of factual information about the object of forecasting, symbolically displaying the stages life cycle systems.
112. Conjunction (planetary) - the same ecliptic longitude of 2 or more planets.
113. Forecast accuracy is an estimate of the confidence interval of the forecast for a given probability of its implementation.
114. Cycle phase angular position between two planets - 0, 45, 30, 60, 90, 120, 135, 180 degrees.
115. Cycle planetary relation (phase) between two planets in the interval between two conjunctions.
116. Cyclic index (CI) - angular distance between pairs of planets.
117. Cyclic potential of the environment (<рч ос) сумма циклических индексов.
118. Cyclic potential static (<рчСГ) уровень планетарнойцикличности, породивший ряд событий (например, образование новых структур) в конкретный момент времени, характеризует начальные условия целенаправленного развития системы.
119. The ecliptic is the visible path of the Sun's movement throughout the year across the sky.
120. Ephemeris astronomical tables showing the position of the planets for each day of a given year.
121. GT, GMT, HT, NMT is the designation of Greenwich Mean Time (Universal Time).
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Venus de Milo (Aphrodite) - statue of the goddess of love surrounded by legends
The world-famous sculpture of Venus de Milo, exhibited in the Louvre - the standard of female beauty - unfortunately does not have both hands. This magnificent work of art, carved in white marble, was found on the southern Greek island of Milos in 1820, hence the name Milos.
It was found by a simple Greek peasant named Yurgos. Yurgos had no idea about archeology. He was engaged in business: he cultivated the land that belonged to him and fed his large family. He found Venus by accident. Once, while digging his garden, he came across a stone slab, and then several hewn stones. These stones were highly valued on the island of Milos, where Yurgos lived. Local peasants, without particularly breaking their heads over their origin, used them in the construction of houses. Yurgos continued his excavations. Imagine his surprise when he suddenly discovered a kind of niche, and in it a magnificent marble statue of a half-naked woman of rare beauty. In the niche were two more statuettes of Hermes, as scientists later determined, and several trinkets made of marble.
Jurgos realized that he had managed to find something much more valuable than a pair of hewn stone slabs. He moved his find to a barn, and then, at least as they usually say, sold it to a certain Marcelus, secretary of the French embassy in Istanbul.
Only one thing is upsetting: this marvelous statue, which has become a kind of synonym for ideal female beauty, like Apollo Belvedere - male, had its own flaw: Venus's hands were beaten off. Such - with stumps instead of hands - it can still be seen in the Louvre; this is how it is presented in countless reproductions.
Where and when, under what circumstances did Venus de Milo lose her hands? The key to this little-known story is this (a story about it has been preserved in the unpublished memoirs of Dumont-Durville and partly in Matterer). Durville and Matterer did not buy Venus - it turned out to be beyond their means. They returned to their ship. A few days later, the ship arrived in Istanbul. The ship's officers were invited to the French embassy. During the reception, Dumont-Durville spoke about the discovery of Yurgos. The secretary of the embassy, Marcelius, literally, almost on the same day, is sent on behalf of the ambassador on a special ship under the command of Lieutenant Robert to the island of Milos. Three days later he delivered the statue to Athens. But by this time, Venus was already without arms. What happened? statue goddess art marble
Dumont-Durville writes about it this way: “As far as one can tell, the peasant, who was tired of waiting for buyers, lowered the price and sold it to one local priest. He wanted to present it as a gift to the translator of the Pasha of Constantinople. Mr. Marcellus arrived just at the moment when the statue was about to be loaded onto a ship for shipment to Constantinople. Seeing that this magnificent find was slipping out of his hands, he took all measures to get it, and the priest, in the end, not without resistance, agreed to give it up.
But Durville is not entirely accurate: the priest did not even think of giving up the statue. On the contrary, he categorically refused to sell it. Then Marcellus demanded two dozen sailors from Robert, deciding, as Matterer writes, to free the goddess, no matter what the cost. A real fight ensued. In this skirmish, the French prevailed. During the fight, Venera, who was thrown on the road and trampled into the mud, and beat off her hands.
This is the ugly truth. That is why Matterer, fearing a diplomatic scandal - in 1842 all the "heroes" of this story, and above all Ambassador de Riviere, were still alive - tried to hide it and only later described everything as it was. That is why Dumont-Durville is so diplomatically cautious in his memoirs. That is why, finally, Venus de Milo has no hands.
The figure of the goddess of love is devoid of arms, covered with gaps, but once you see her, you will never forget her beauty and proud image. A slight tilt of a small head on a slender neck, one shoulder slightly raised, the other slightly lowered, flexible, curved camp. The tenderness and softness of the skin is shaded by a cape that has slipped onto the hips. And it is impossible to take your eyes off the sculpture, permeated with femininity and lyricism, not for a moment doubting that perfection is before your eyes - the goddess of love.
This perfection, created by human inspiration and skill, could not be passed by Russian writers who ended up in the Louvre in Paris in different years.
Athanasius Fet - Venus de Milo
And chaste and bold,
Up to the loins shining with nakedness,
Blooming divine body
Unfading beauty.
Under this canopy whimsical
Slightly raised hair
How much bliss is proud
Spilled in the heavenly face!
So, all breathing pathos passion,
All dazzling with sea foam
And all-conquering power,
You look into eternity before you.
1856. At present, the statue of Venus de Milo is stored on the 1st floor of the Louvre in a small round room that completes the suite of rooms of the Department of Ancient Art, and not a single exhibit, in any of them, has been pushed into the middle. Therefore, Venus is still visible from afar - a low sculpture that appears like a white ghost against a foggy background of gray walls.
When visitors enter the Louvre, they usually ask two questions: how to get to Venus de Milo (the Greek goddess is also called by this Roman name) and where is the Mona Lisa?
1) The location of the sculpture (enclosed space, open area), whether it is calculated in connection with a certain point of view.
2) The size of the sculpture, how it interacts with space and man in this case, the problem of the pedestal (its absence, presence)
3) Sculptural / architectural ensemble (is it a part of it, what place does it occupy)
4) Three-dimensionality of the image itself (round sculpture, relief: bas-relief / high relief / counter-relief)
5) Material, the reason for choosing this particular material, its expressive features, production method (negative, positive) Color characteristics: the color of the material itself, coloring, relationship with light
6) Processing method and material texture in different parts
7) Closure / openness of the figure, type of movement: open / closed, chiasm / contrapost / no
8) Transfer of the plot, its historical significance
9) General impression of the sculpture
David, Michelangelo. A colossal work in size (more than 5 meters). It was first presented to the public in a large square next to the Cathedral of Santa Maria del Fiore. She clearly dominated the viewer and the surrounding space. It stands on a small pedestal that imitates the earth and does not greatly distance the figure from the viewer. The sculpture was intended for a circular view from a fairly large distance, the most expressive point of view can be considered when David's gaze is directly directed at the viewer. The sculpture was completely independent. It was made of marble, the most life-like material, however, in the movement of David himself, the size of the block is felt, beyond which the sculptor cannot go. Marble involves a negative technique of work, when a figure begins to stand out from a common, large piece by extracting volumes (it is very difficult to immediately imagine in what place and how much you need to remove in order to get the desired result). The author positively uses a light-colored stone: firstly, its warm tone brings the statue closer to a person, and secondly, it visually reduces the mass, which is why the figure of David does not seem so heavy and huge to us. The main transmitted texture is the human body. Michelangelo carefully polishes the surface, but does not go into absolutely small details, as a result of which the figure seems to us very organic with a very smooth silhouette. open composition. The main movement is concentrated within the character himself: his determined look, the intensity of facial features, the pose itself. It rests on one leg, the other leg is relaxed, a clear division of the vertical figure into static and dynamic halves. Another innovation of Michelangelo was that he depicted David before the fight with Goliath, which adds even more tragedy. Thus, a colossal hero appears before us, confident in his strength and the ability to overcome any obstacle, independent of anything. Heroic pathos is reflected in his whole image.
Adam with an apple, Salzburg master of the first half of the 16th century.
Quite small in size, the sculpture may have been placed in some niche in an enclosed space. It does not require a specific point of view, but should be perceived from a fairly close distance. The figure of Adam stands on a fairly large pedestal made of a different material, which greatly separates it from the environment. Unfortunately, it is not known for sure whether it was part of the sculptural ensemble, but judging by its appearance, it can be assumed that it stood separately. Before us is a three-dimensional sculpture, well processed from all sides, however, due to its location, it does not imply an examination of the rear plane. The figure of Adam is made of warm wood. It involves working in negative technique, cutting technique. This material is quite heavy for work, because the author is limited not only by the size of the bar, but also by the direction of the wood fiber, because it is extremely inconvenient to work perpendicular to it. The color of the material itself is quite dark, but its warmth adds life to the figure itself. Wood allows you to polish it very smoothly. A very subtle play of light on the surface reflects it. Excellent transfer of hair curls. Open posture, one noticeable some limited movement caused by a certain size of the workpiece. Chiasmus: support on one leg, arms spread apart. The angularity of the whole figure is also noticeable - the influence of the structure of the tree on the sculpture. In general, one gets the impression that in front of the viewer is a small and very fragile sculpture, which, because of this, even seems somewhat atectonic.
Statue of the scribe Kai, ser. 3 millennium BC
Before us is a sculpture, which should be located in the funeral complex of a nobleman. She did not expect to be often in the public eye, but rather was carried out as an obligatory part of the architectural structure. The figure has an average size, slightly smaller than the nature itself, but it had to be placed on a high pedestal and stand out against the background of people. The statue is one of the main sculptural decorations in the pyramid of the scribe Kai. This figure is a three-dimensional image, but the law of frontality is fulfilled on it: it is assumed that it will be viewed either in profile or in front, without using angular perception. The sculpture was made of sandstone, a standard material for this country and era. The material processing technique involves the use of a negative carving technique. Masterful study of different parts of the body, especially long arms. A fairly porous material, which is why the surface of the work is rather uneven, but the works have always been painted. It is because of this fact that the surface seems to us quite smooth. Before us is a closed and extremely static sculpture. There is no internal or external movement in it, which was typical for ancient Egyptian sculpture. In this case, the author follows all the canons of the depiction of the scribe's figure: he sits in a lotus position, holds a scroll in his hands, has a straight gaze, the presence of human features (for example, the folds of the abdomen). This is how the royal scribe appears before us, whose narrow lips are tightly compressed and his eyes are vigilantly staring - a reflection of the mixed expression of restraint, readiness to obey and cunning, which an outstanding royal confidant must possess.
Donatello, Herod's Feast, 1427-1428. Scenery of the Siena font.
This sculptural work should be located in the scenery of the Siena font among several more similar decorations. A rather small work in size suggests viewing from a fairly close distance, has something in the style of the frame, due to which the characters are separated from the space of the viewer. Before us appears a relief that has a certain perspective reduction in volume: the front figures are quite strongly separated from the plane (high relief), but the rear architectural scenery almost does not stand out (low relief). Because of this, he assumes only one point of view, from which all the figures would be visible without reduction. The relief is made of bronze, which allows you to model absolutely any form, any degree of elaboration of certain parts. Manufacturing method - casting. The bronze surface can be called quite active: in the figures - a smooth surface, which reflects light very actively, the background - fine detailing, a rougher surface, which reflects light more softly. In this case, the characteristics of the movement and stability of the figures should be characterized almost like a painting. Active movement of figures. In the foreground is the image of a warrior from Salome, in the background are the companions of Herod. The central group is a warrior who holds out a dish with a severed head, and Herod, who moves away from him in horror. And the dancing Salome remains calm even in such a situation. Complex composition. Thus, we are presented with one of the examples of "picturesque" relief, in which pictorial and sculptural forms of expression play almost the same role.
Portrait of Septimius Severus, 3rd century.
Not a very large work, standing in a closed space and not designed to inspect the rear plane. A very specific type of sculpture is the chest image (bust). Such unnaturalness immediately alienates him from the viewer. Single sculpture needed to decorate the space. The material is marble, great vitality, fine workmanship of different textures: curly hair and beard, folded clothes, a tense and extremely smooth face. It absorbs the light, due to which there is a soft glow that enlivens the figure. There is an exclusively internal movement, which is completely concentrated on the face: the tense muscles of the cheekbones, the gaze directed forward. The turn of the head relative to the shoulders reflects the confidence and grandeur of the portrayed emperor. An attempt to convey not only external, but also internal characteristics of a person.
